Now, can Abhisit live without Hun Sen?

November 18, 2009
By Tulsathit Taptim
The Nation

AS FAR as Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is concerned, the good news is that Hun Sen and Thaksin Shinawatra have been a big help in making the past few days arguably the Democrat leader's best spell at the country's helm. The bad news is, this politically lucrative saga with Cambodia cannot last forever.

Knowing Thaksin, a big marketing promotion must be in store to offset the Cambodian setback. So, don't be surprised if the Thai "spy" now in Phnom Penh's custody is to be released thanks to an intervention from, ahem, a hero in Dubai.

Siwarak Chotipong is in a peculiar situation. The longer he stays in the Cambodian jail, the more it reflects poorly on the very man Hun Sen has gone so far out of his way to help. On the other hand, his quick release will ease the diplomatic tension, and while this will relieve Abhisit, it won't benefit him as much politically.

Like Thaksin, the Pheu Thai Party must not want the Siwarak affair to drag on. For the first time since the 2006 coup, it is now a "real" political force, one that is not hounded by threats of party dissolution or other legal roadblocks. The Thai-Cambodian conflict is arguably Pheu Thai's softest spot now, and the sooner the problem is solved, the better.

We will see Thaksin switching back to parliamentary games. Pheu Thai will certainly launch a censure attack at the very first opportunity early next year. Rumours that government coalition MPs will break ranks to vote with the opposition at the end of the no-confidence debate are likely to get louder in the next few weeks.

Regarding Cambodia, Pheu Thai's strategy is "no strategy". Party sources admit that Hun Sen's aggression has backfired, but they insist that in terms of political damage, it's nothing a little time won't fix. The party will lie low - hoping that Hun Sen will calm down and there will be no torch-wielding mobs heading toward the Thai Embassy - and come out all guns blazing after the year's end.

Despite Hun Sen, Pheu Thai will likely still win an election if it's held in the next six months, although the margin of victory may not be as large as it could have been without the Phnom Penh fiasco. In the current political context, this means a lot. A victorious Pheu Thai not threatened by legal booby traps is something the Democrats and all other Thaksin opponents have never dealt with before.

The question is how patient can Pheu Thai be? Or, to be more exact, how patient can Thaksin be, especially when the move to seize his confiscated billions is making quick progress and may be concluded before the next election is held? We all know what can happen if Thaksin loses his cool. Thailand nearly had a civil war in April, and almost severed ties with its neighbour just a week ago.

Pheu Thai can play a waiting game and in the process wear down any negative ramifications of the Thai-Cambodian row. Their opponents are running out of legal weapons, and the smartest idea is to try to keep it that way and bide time. That is probably easier than controlling a potential loose cannon in Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

Which brings us to Pheu Thai's biggest, unsolved problem: The desperate absence of a genuine prime ministerial contender. We are approaching the first anniversary of the Suvarnabhumi Airport blockade and events that left the pro-Thaksin camp exposed over this, but little has changed since. The party has had to rely on Chalerm Yoobamrung as its most charismatic figure, until Chavalit was dragged out of virtual retirement to wreak havoc.

While Thaksin has not yet become a Pheu Thai liability, Chavalit is by no means a party asset, and that's putting it mildly. A Thaksin of one or two years ago might have been able to paper over Chavalit's numerous drawbacks, but both men's disastrous stunts in Phnom Penh can only mean each will be better off on his own.

With lessons regarding Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat still fresh, it will require political naivety of the highest order for Pheu Thai to risk everything on Chavalit. Whether his Cambodian antics were impeachable is debatable, but that doesn't mean nobody will give it a shot.

Abhisit, however, will find that no matter how rocky Pheu Thai's road still appears, early next year could be the most thrilling time yet as prime minister. And, most ironically perhaps, when a headless yet legally unshackled Pheu Thai throws everything at him in a censure debate, he may think of one Hun Sen and all the things he could have done to ease his trouble.