Hun Sen's stance : Nothing to be elated about

(Photo: DAP)

April 8, 2010
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's "surprise" message to Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban was useful for the government merely to bluff the red-shirted movement, but it was not clear what price this country has to pay for it in the future.

Hun Sen told Suthep during an informal meeting on the sidelines of the first mekong River Commission summit in Hua Hin on Sunday that he would not invite fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to visit Cambodia as long as the red-shirt protest in Thailand was still underway.

In fact, Hun Sen's message has another part, which is that both countries should let bygones be bygones and proceed to improve bilateral relations, which have been sour since the Cambodian premier appointed Thaksin as economic adviser.

However, what the government under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva wants to hear is only the first part of the message - about barring Thaksin from using Cambodia as his political base to attack the government while the red-shirted protesters are mounting pressure on his administration.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya told reporters briefly that he needed some more time to study Hun Sen's message and would not jump to any quick conclusion to normalise relations.

At this moment, the government is satisfied with Hun Sen's message and wants to use it for domestic purposes to bluff the red-shirted movement, rather than pave the way to normalising bilateral ties.

Asking if the government would send its ambassador back to Phnom Penh to resume duties soon is premature.

What the government has done is just conveyed the message to the red-shirted group, which is rallying across the capital, that their big boss' movement has been restricted. At least, he cannot exploit the proximity of Cambodia to connect with the red shirts.

Although location is not the point, as Thaksin can contact his supporters from any corner of the globe, the government has tried many times to bar him from using countries with which Thailand maintains good relations. The government, however, failed to block him from the United Arab Emirates, Montenegro, Sweden and Russia.

The government now has added Cambodia to its successes, but there remains a major question of why Hun Sen, who has a personal relationship with Thaksin, agreed to keep him away.

An analyst said Suthep recently requested a senior Vietnamese official to help talk to Hun Sen about not playing the Thaksin card. A source confirmed Suthep really asked for help but Hanoi did not promise to cooperate and said it has no capacity to talk to Hun Sen on the matter despite holding the Asean chairmanship.

What Hun Sen said in Hua Hin was based on his own judgement, in Cambodia's interest, rather than for Vietnam or Thailand, the source said.

Hun Sen has proved over the past months that when he has a conflict with Thailand over Thaksin, a small neighbour under his leadership can bargain with a bigger neighbour like Thailand. Whatever Hun Sen wants to do, he can do it and the Thai government cannot stop him.

People in the government should not be too happy with Hun Sen's latest stance on Thaksin. The Cambodian premier has only kept Thaksin away during the red-shirted protest, but he has not dumped Thaksin.

Indeed, Hun Sen's latest message did not help the government to defeat the red-shirted group, which perhaps held no significant meaning for them. But for sure, the government and Suthep himself now owe Hun Sen a debt and will need to repay him at some point in the future.