Op-Ed by Jayakhmer
On the web at http://www.modernprogressivekhmer.blogspot.com
Based on a simple majority requirement to form a government and divided opposition parties, it is highly likely that Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will win the July 27th election.
Although the constitutional amendment to change the requirement from a super majority to a simple majority to form a government will allow a political party or parties to form a government easier than it was it the past, post election crisis will be there if the election is perceived to be not free and fair.
Therefore, CPP should be magnanimous by making sure that the election is free fair. This means CPP should stay clear from the National Election Committee (NEC) and the international observers so that they can truly be independent.
NEC and the international observers must make sure that electoral process is transparent, that political parties and the candidates have equal media and orderly election campaign, that the election is free of fear and intimation, and that there is no misuse of government facilities for campaign purposes.
In past elections although CPP has not won decisively, it has been managing to control the government since the first election.
In 1993, CPP won 51 seats second to National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful, and Cooperative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) won the most with 58 seats. Since it was required 81 seats to form a government, CPP with skilled political maneuvering managed to become equal partner with FUNCINPEC.
CPP narrowly won the election in 1998 with 64 seats in front of the backdrop of two important events preceded the election -the grenade attack on peaceful rally near the National Assembly in March that resulted in at least 16 people were killed and many injured and the 'coupe' of July 1997 also resulted many killings. The atmosphere of fear and intimidation certainly were there. CPP and FUNCINPEC, then, formed a coalition when Prince Norodom Ranariddh accepted the compromise by allowing the former Co-Prime Minister Hun Sen as Prime Minister and Prince Norodom Ranariddh as President of the National Assembly.
The election of 2003 gave CPP a stronger hand of 73 seats out of 123. FUNCINPEC won only 26 seats was markedly weaker than the last two elections when it captured 53 seats in 1993 and 43 seats in 1998. Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) showed an improvement by receiving 24 seats jumping from the 1998 election when it captured 15 seats.
Since no political party captured the 2/3 majority necessary to form a government, it took 11 months of political maneuvering and negotiating to reach an agreement. The crisis after each election prompted scholars and politicians to re-think about the existing formula of super majority requirement.
In 2006, in the spirit of rapprochement with Prime Minister Hun Sen who agreed to settle political conflicts Sam Rainsy after his self-impose exile in France, the opposition leader proposed an amendment to the constitution that allows a government to be formed with a simple majority. The proposal was too good that CPP could not refuse.
Besides the simple majority requirement, CPP will highly like to win this coming election partly because of the opposition parties are not united. Although SRP has shown sign of improvement in the 2003 elections by gaining 9 seats more than it had in the 1998 election, it has a long way to go to capture a simple majority.
SRP has to swallow its pride by taking a critical look at its internal structure and even considering of changing the party's name so that other can join without losing their party identity. SRP must do what it takes to unite with of all other opposition parties if it hopes to capture a simple majority.
Human Rights Party has no track record and is too new that made it hard to gage as to what impact it will have on the coming election. Based on the last election CPP only captured 47% of the total votes. This means the new requirement of simple majority will give a united opposition party a chance to win this election if and only if they work together.
Thus far, there is no sign of a united opposition party – not now or any time soon.
Although the constitutional amendment to change the requirement from a super majority to a simple majority to form a government will allow a political party or parties to form a government easier than it was it the past, post election crisis will be there if the election is perceived to be not free and fair.
Therefore, CPP should be magnanimous by making sure that the election is free fair. This means CPP should stay clear from the National Election Committee (NEC) and the international observers so that they can truly be independent.
NEC and the international observers must make sure that electoral process is transparent, that political parties and the candidates have equal media and orderly election campaign, that the election is free of fear and intimation, and that there is no misuse of government facilities for campaign purposes.
In past elections although CPP has not won decisively, it has been managing to control the government since the first election.
In 1993, CPP won 51 seats second to National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful, and Cooperative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) won the most with 58 seats. Since it was required 81 seats to form a government, CPP with skilled political maneuvering managed to become equal partner with FUNCINPEC.
CPP narrowly won the election in 1998 with 64 seats in front of the backdrop of two important events preceded the election -the grenade attack on peaceful rally near the National Assembly in March that resulted in at least 16 people were killed and many injured and the 'coupe' of July 1997 also resulted many killings. The atmosphere of fear and intimidation certainly were there. CPP and FUNCINPEC, then, formed a coalition when Prince Norodom Ranariddh accepted the compromise by allowing the former Co-Prime Minister Hun Sen as Prime Minister and Prince Norodom Ranariddh as President of the National Assembly.
The election of 2003 gave CPP a stronger hand of 73 seats out of 123. FUNCINPEC won only 26 seats was markedly weaker than the last two elections when it captured 53 seats in 1993 and 43 seats in 1998. Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) showed an improvement by receiving 24 seats jumping from the 1998 election when it captured 15 seats.
Since no political party captured the 2/3 majority necessary to form a government, it took 11 months of political maneuvering and negotiating to reach an agreement. The crisis after each election prompted scholars and politicians to re-think about the existing formula of super majority requirement.
In 2006, in the spirit of rapprochement with Prime Minister Hun Sen who agreed to settle political conflicts Sam Rainsy after his self-impose exile in France, the opposition leader proposed an amendment to the constitution that allows a government to be formed with a simple majority. The proposal was too good that CPP could not refuse.
Besides the simple majority requirement, CPP will highly like to win this coming election partly because of the opposition parties are not united. Although SRP has shown sign of improvement in the 2003 elections by gaining 9 seats more than it had in the 1998 election, it has a long way to go to capture a simple majority.
SRP has to swallow its pride by taking a critical look at its internal structure and even considering of changing the party's name so that other can join without losing their party identity. SRP must do what it takes to unite with of all other opposition parties if it hopes to capture a simple majority.
Human Rights Party has no track record and is too new that made it hard to gage as to what impact it will have on the coming election. Based on the last election CPP only captured 47% of the total votes. This means the new requirement of simple majority will give a united opposition party a chance to win this election if and only if they work together.
Thus far, there is no sign of a united opposition party – not now or any time soon.
4 comments:
The CPP will do its utmost to keep Cambodia from becoming Zimbabwe. Therefore Vote for CPP.
Election compaign is like marketing. CPP control the media, SRP need to worker harder using the youth volunteer each commune and deliver clear message to voters. These volunteer groups should well trained ie frequently asked questions etc
Mate 6:18AM. Are you Khmer or Youn ahh? We cannot run a campaign like you, get it dumb azz? We have to tell people what we can help the country. Why did you use Communist languages and told them that we CPP will do everything to win? You tell people that we are bad and that we are murdered people for votes?
Stop your satire against CPP and black male us as we are bad. K?
You are not real CPP, you may be some spy from Rainsy who sent to make us CPP look bad.
Need to find out who are you. If I find who you are, I will peel your skin, mate.
Well, if you don't like it, idiot, go join the SRP (cyclo drivers team).
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