April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Southeast Asian finance ministers may this week discuss ways to woo overseas investors and encourage local companies and consumers to spend more as they seek new sources of growth for their export-dependent economies.
Indonesia's Sri Mulyani Indrawati and her counterparts from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Cambodia from April 4-5 may agree to hasten efforts to simplify business rules and consider tax cuts. Plans to build roads and ports in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand could help attract more foreign money.
Investment into Southeast Asia slumped after the 1997-1998 financial crisis as companies such as Toshiba Corp. shifted electronics factories to lower-cost economies like China and India. The region's economic growth has since fluctuated with swings in global demand for technology products. Though Singapore has slashed taxes and developed new industries like pharmaceuticals and tourism, the rest of Asean hasn't followed.
"Reigniting domestic investment is a key issue,'' said Sanjeev Sanyal, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Singapore. The export-dependency of Asean nations "can't be wished away.'' These economies must diversify, he said.
Economic growth slowed last year in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines after overseas demand for electronics eased in the first half, and as higher fuel costs and interest rates curbed consumer spending. Exports amount to more than 120 percent of gross domestic product in Malaysia, 80 percent in Singapore, and 40 percent in the Philippines.
Stagnant Investment
The World Bank estimates investment growth in East Asian economies other than China slowed to 3.5 percent last year from 8.5 percent in 2004. Investment remained stagnant between 2001 and 2003, it said.
Foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia rose 22 percent to $25.1 billion in 2004. That was less than half of China's $60.6 billion and short of the record $35 billion Asean got before the 1997-1998 financial crisis. Both Asean and China got an average $13 billion a year between 1989 and 1994.
"There is room to step up infrastructure spending in Thailand and Indonesia and cut taxes in Indonesia and Malaysia,'' said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.
Formed in 1967, Asean has a combined gross domestic product of $800 billion, a population of 558 million and total trade exceeding $1 trillion. Asean members are Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Common Market
Asean, which has pledged to accelerate tariff cuts to form a common market by 2012, is still to agree on ways to simplify rules on trade in services and investment.
In Indonesia this year, "the deceleration of private investment is expected to be more severe than previously envisaged,'' the World Bank said last week. Growth in Southeast Asia's largest-economy may ease to 5.5 percent this year from 5.6 percent in 2005, it said.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government, which wants to draw $426 billion of investment by 2009 to spur growth to an average 6.6 percent, has yet to pass a law meant to ease investment rules and improve legal certainty. Investment growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter after rising 9.4 percent in the third. Yudhoyono hasn't acted on proposals to cut tax rates for companies and individuals.
In Thailand, a decision by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to call a snap election on April 2 to avert a political crisis is hurting economic growth by delaying government spending and diminishing investor confidence.
'Political Turmoil'
Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board on March 6 cut its 2006 growth forecast to a range of between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent from a December estimate of 4.7 percent to 5.7 percent. The economy grew 4.5 percent last year.
"Political turmoil doesn't help,'' said Robert Subbaraman, a Tokyo-based economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Aside from politics, to attract investment Asean needs to "cut red tape, end corruption and strengthen legal systems.''
Asean finance ministers may also review the progress of efforts to develop Southeast Asia's bond markets, which would help unlock the region's high savings for productive investments, economists said.
The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore are part of a group of 11 monetary authorities in East Asia and the Pacific, which in 2004 set up a $2 billion fund to invest in bonds denominated in local currencies and government-backed debt.
Currency Index
The Asian Development Bank has said it plans to aid these efforts by developing an index of regional currencies that may one day be used to sell bonds.
Asean economies, coupled with those of China, Hong Kong and South Korea, accounted for 3 percent of the world's $44 trillion local currency bond market in 2004, according to a January report by management-consulting firm McKinsey & Co. That compared with the U.S.'s 44 percent share and Japan's 20 percent.
"Asia has got very high savings but it is difficult to use them for investment and bond markets are not very well developed,'' Lehman's Subbaraman said. "Some progress has been made but more remains to be done.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Amit Prakash in Siem Reap, Cambodia, through the Singapore
newsroom at aprakash1@bloomberg.net
Indonesia's Sri Mulyani Indrawati and her counterparts from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Cambodia from April 4-5 may agree to hasten efforts to simplify business rules and consider tax cuts. Plans to build roads and ports in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand could help attract more foreign money.
Investment into Southeast Asia slumped after the 1997-1998 financial crisis as companies such as Toshiba Corp. shifted electronics factories to lower-cost economies like China and India. The region's economic growth has since fluctuated with swings in global demand for technology products. Though Singapore has slashed taxes and developed new industries like pharmaceuticals and tourism, the rest of Asean hasn't followed.
"Reigniting domestic investment is a key issue,'' said Sanjeev Sanyal, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Singapore. The export-dependency of Asean nations "can't be wished away.'' These economies must diversify, he said.
Economic growth slowed last year in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines after overseas demand for electronics eased in the first half, and as higher fuel costs and interest rates curbed consumer spending. Exports amount to more than 120 percent of gross domestic product in Malaysia, 80 percent in Singapore, and 40 percent in the Philippines.
Stagnant Investment
The World Bank estimates investment growth in East Asian economies other than China slowed to 3.5 percent last year from 8.5 percent in 2004. Investment remained stagnant between 2001 and 2003, it said.
Foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia rose 22 percent to $25.1 billion in 2004. That was less than half of China's $60.6 billion and short of the record $35 billion Asean got before the 1997-1998 financial crisis. Both Asean and China got an average $13 billion a year between 1989 and 1994.
"There is room to step up infrastructure spending in Thailand and Indonesia and cut taxes in Indonesia and Malaysia,'' said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.
Formed in 1967, Asean has a combined gross domestic product of $800 billion, a population of 558 million and total trade exceeding $1 trillion. Asean members are Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Common Market
Asean, which has pledged to accelerate tariff cuts to form a common market by 2012, is still to agree on ways to simplify rules on trade in services and investment.
In Indonesia this year, "the deceleration of private investment is expected to be more severe than previously envisaged,'' the World Bank said last week. Growth in Southeast Asia's largest-economy may ease to 5.5 percent this year from 5.6 percent in 2005, it said.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government, which wants to draw $426 billion of investment by 2009 to spur growth to an average 6.6 percent, has yet to pass a law meant to ease investment rules and improve legal certainty. Investment growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter after rising 9.4 percent in the third. Yudhoyono hasn't acted on proposals to cut tax rates for companies and individuals.
In Thailand, a decision by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to call a snap election on April 2 to avert a political crisis is hurting economic growth by delaying government spending and diminishing investor confidence.
'Political Turmoil'
Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board on March 6 cut its 2006 growth forecast to a range of between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent from a December estimate of 4.7 percent to 5.7 percent. The economy grew 4.5 percent last year.
"Political turmoil doesn't help,'' said Robert Subbaraman, a Tokyo-based economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Aside from politics, to attract investment Asean needs to "cut red tape, end corruption and strengthen legal systems.''
Asean finance ministers may also review the progress of efforts to develop Southeast Asia's bond markets, which would help unlock the region's high savings for productive investments, economists said.
The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore are part of a group of 11 monetary authorities in East Asia and the Pacific, which in 2004 set up a $2 billion fund to invest in bonds denominated in local currencies and government-backed debt.
Currency Index
The Asian Development Bank has said it plans to aid these efforts by developing an index of regional currencies that may one day be used to sell bonds.
Asean economies, coupled with those of China, Hong Kong and South Korea, accounted for 3 percent of the world's $44 trillion local currency bond market in 2004, according to a January report by management-consulting firm McKinsey & Co. That compared with the U.S.'s 44 percent share and Japan's 20 percent.
"Asia has got very high savings but it is difficult to use them for investment and bond markets are not very well developed,'' Lehman's Subbaraman said. "Some progress has been made but more remains to be done.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Amit Prakash in Siem Reap, Cambodia, through the Singapore
newsroom at aprakash1@bloomberg.net
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