Sunday, April 29, 2007

Khmer Intelligence News - 28 April 2007

28 April 2007

Cambodia's specialist on money laundering (1)

Taking the floor at the National Assembly on 27 April, Opposition Member of Parliament Tioulong Saumura, who was Deputy Governor of the Central Bank from 1993 to 1995, elaborated on money laundering practices in Cambodia and made several proposals to improve a draft law intended to financially combat the organized crime. Tioulong Saumura, who holds a MBA degree and is a graduate from the Paris Institute of Political Science (Sciences Po), headed a government special unit whose mission was to fight against money laundering in Cambodia . She has been working closely with Tracfin, a French financial intelligence unit that deals with international corruption and the financing of terrorism.

Communes where the CPP lost most heavily (1)

At the 1st April 2007 commune council election, the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) was most heavily defeated in the following communes, which can provide valuable information for political analysts:

1- Kilometre 6 (Ruissei Keo district, Phnom Penh municipality) :

Out of the 11 commune council seats: 6 are allocated to the Opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) which collected 3,640 votes; and 5 to the CPP which obtained 2,610 votes.

2- Ruissei Keo (Ruissei Keo district, Phnom Penh municipality) :

Out of the 11 commune council seats: 6 are allocated to the SRP which collected 4,117 votes; and 5 to the CPP which obtained 3,441 votes.

3- Phlov Toek (Kampong Leng district, Kampong Chhnang province):

Out of the 5 commune council seats: 3 are allocated to the SRP which collected 404 votes; 1 to the CPP which obtained 254 votes; and 1 to the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) which gathered 163 votes.

4- Bet Trang (Prey Nub district, Sihanoukville municipality) :

Out of the 5 commune council seats: 3 are allocated to the SRP which collected 727 votes; 1 to the CPP which obtained 451 votes; and 1 to the Funcinpec party (FCP) which gathered 269 votes.

5- Samprouch (Staung district, Kampong Thom province):

Out of the 9 commune council seats: 4 are allocated to the SRP which collected 1,104 votes; 3 to the CPP which obtained 952 votes; and 2 to the NRP which gathered 733 votes.

Inverse correlation between voter turnout and percentage of votes obtained by the CPP (1)

From the results of the 1st April 2007 commune council election, it can be clearly observed that the lower the voter turnout rate, the higher the percentage of votes obtained by the CPP.

If there were no manipulation of the voter lists since the early stage of the electoral process in the summer 2006, no political discrimination in election preparations, no administrative harassment or problems of all kinds created by the authorities to prevent countless citizens from voting, the voter turnout rate at the 2007 election would not have been merely 65%, but would have been at least 85% just like in the previous years in our country: 96% in 1993, 94% in 1998, 87% in 2002, and 83% in 2003.

Because it controls the state apparatus and has at its disposal important means to oversee and maintain its grip on the population, the CPP was able to mobilize all its supporters and send them to the polling stations on voting day. All of the administrative hurdles to voting were cleared for CPP supporters, who were easily identified through the CPP-affiliated village chiefs. On the other hand, those who were identified by the CPP as potential Opposition supporters were left in the dark or were intentionally led to errors so that they could not vote.

Of all 1,621 communes, the CPP made its biggest gains to the detriment of the Opposition in precisely those communes where the voter turnout rate was the lowest (such as Poipet, with a turnout rate of less than 30%, or in Phnom Penh where the turnout rate was barely 50%). On the other hand, in those communes where the turnout rate remained relatively high (over 75%), the results obtained by the Opposition were very satisfactory, resulting in some significant losses for the CPP. This is obvious in the 28 communes where the SRP preserved its commune chief positions or won new ones (see examples in the news above: "Communes where the CPP lost most heavily").

Hun Sen threatens Sam Rainsy (1)

Earlier this month, Opposition leader Sam Rainsy declared that he planned to hold grassroots polls to democratically elect village chiefs in communes where the SRP won the commune chief position on 1st April 2007. As reported by Voice of America on 23 April, Prime Minister Hun Sen called Sam Rainsy's plan a potential "act of secession" and warned the Opposition leader not to proceed illegally. "I heard they want to hold an election [in every village in Opposition-controll ed communes]," Hun Sen said in a speech during an opening ceremony at a school in Phnom Penh . "Do they want a secession? How many states does Cambodia have?"

Actually, Sam Rainsy's plan clashes with the CPP's strategy in that:

1- The Opposition would put an end to the CPP's total and absolute control over the some 14,000 village chiefs who play a politically vital role for the ruling party as heads of its communist-type cells all over the country, especially in rural areas.

2- The Opposition would introduce a new electoral system: the First-Past-The- Post system, which the CPP seriously fears since it would reduce the role of the authoritarian party in selecting, and securing the election of, loyal apparatchiks.

3- The Opposition would be able to counter the CPP-organized electoral frauds, especially manipulation of voter lists at the grassroots level (political discrimination, administrative harassment, fraudulent or ghost voters). In particular, the Opposition would be able to ensure that all citizens would be able to effectively cast their ballot, which would increase voter turnout (see news above: "Inverse correlation between voter turnout and percentage of votes obtained by the CPP").

Sam Rainsy in Berlin and Brussels (1)

After his visit to Rome last week where he met with Italian Deputy Prime Minister Francesco Rutelli and Deputy Foreign Minister Gianni Vernetti, Opposition leader Sam Rainsy was this week in Berlin where he met with Mr. Andreas Michaelis, Head of the Asia Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as with several Members of Parliament (Bundestag) and officials from NGOs (Stiftungs). He subsequently went to Brussels to have discussions with officials from the European Commission, including Mr. Seamus Gillespie, Head of Cabinet of the Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner, and Mr. Tomasz Kozlowski, Head of Task Force Asia Policy Unit at the Council of Ministers which represents the Governments of 27 nations.

[End]

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is great political analysis. SRP and other democratic parties have to voice up this grassroot election whihc it is legally according Cambodian constitution and decentralization.

Hun Sen is just blind and feared of lossing his power...of course SR's suggestion had nothing wrong with Cambodia law.

[Actually, Sam Rainsy's plan clashes with the CPP's strategy in that:

1- The Opposition would put an end to the CPP's total and absolute control over the some 14,000 village chiefs who play a politically vital role for the ruling party as heads of its communist-type cells all over the country, especially in rural areas.

2- The Opposition would introduce a new electoral system: the First-Past-The- Post system, which the CPP seriously fears since it would reduce the role of the authoritarian party in selecting, and securing the election of, loyal apparatchiks.

3- The Opposition would be able to counter the CPP-organized electoral frauds, especially manipulation of voter lists at the grassroots level (political discrimination, administrative harassment, fraudulent or ghost voters). In particular, the Opposition would be able to ensure that all citizens would be able to effectively cast their ballot, which would increase voter turnout ]

Anonymous said...

What is a load of craps? We all
know there is no such thing
as a perfect election. No one have
seen any irregularity beyond any
norm. Thus, having independent
commune election is not going to
improve anything. Accordingly, this
whole speculation by the media it
totally nonsense.

Furthermore, the truth is, it is
these political nonsenses is what
keeping Cambodia from optimal
growth. Instead of focusing on
the Economy and jobs, the SRP
strategy is to make people
suffering by causing political
instability and threatning new
bussinesses from comming into
cambodia just to gain the votes.
If that is not pathetic, I don't
know what is.

Anonymous said...

3:59AM
I hope you are not fool by biase or money from CPP...

Economic development is crucial for Cambodia, but we cannot develop it correctly if we don't have real democracy, rule of law, good government and decentralization...

You are really blind now...

Anonymous said...

Wrong, economic development ain't
no rocket science these days. All
you needed is common sense. When
things are slow like we are now,
you drop the tax to increase
spending, and attracting new
bussinesses. You lower the interest
on bussinesse loan to promote
small bussinesses, ... . Trust me,
a strait A's High School graduate
can do it, no Phd is required.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Sam Rainsey is the only leader now that know what it's like to be Khmer, behave like Khmer, speak like Khmer and not Vietcong.

Please continue to maintain our own dignity Sir!

Anonymous said...

Bullshit, if you ever listen to
his speech, he can't deliver a
single message without using the
word "Europe" or "America". It's
like "Europe does it this way", "We
going to be like Europe", "America
has this", "America has that".
What is a moron? He think we khmer
is dumb, retarded, and stupid that
we will be dead unless we copy
everything from the west.

Sorry fellows, I don't think your
SRP is going to get onboard anytime
soon. Don't hold your breath unless
you like blue skin.

Anonymous said...

3:59 AM that is why you have that bullshit poverty and corruption, go get a new formula motherfucker.

11:59 AM Hun Sen can't delivery can't deliver a single message without using the word "Vietnam" or "China". Hun Sen is actually talking to stupid Cambodia that's why he manage to get a hold on large cash for his family. If it wasn't that scamming votes Hun Sen and you fuck face eat shit. Yeah motherfucker like are one moron hypocrite please don't embarrass me anymore and get rid of the stupid voting and stop luring people with bag of rice while you fuck them both way.

Anonymous said...

Hey, corruption and poverty is
natural everywhere. Often poor
neighood, town, city, or even State
associate with corruption. So what
make you think poor country
shouldn't have corruption, hug? Is
that what your smart ass, blue-eyed
Professor taught you, you stupid
idiot (3:59).

Anonymous said...

2:08 PM look fuck head poverty and corruption is not natural and is man made no doubt about it. I though you are some smart Jen but sound stupid and lost somewhere. let me give you example: Before Khmer use to enjoy freedom of food and the way they live but since you fuck up head came along you see naked Khmer women and gold around the place you start to have this greeds ambitions. Than you decide to take people land bit by bit and make law and put force to protect and in the process to legitimize the property. Isn't that what you all been doing lately because Khmer are unaware and helpless? I'm sure my teacher isn't blue eyes at all but I know you had blue eyes teaching you before. No hidden agender please cos I know it all.

Anonymous said...

Of course corruption is man made,
5:06, and the poorer the man is,
the more corruption he made, get
it?