In Cambodia, confrontation or compromise?

Unofficial translations


THE WORLD | 14/08/2013| By Bruno Philip

We just witnessed in Cambodia a political turning point after twenty-eight years aupouvoir, Hun Sen, the Cambodian prime minister ever-present, just voirson "reign" weakened by the results of the recent parliamentary elections. The election of July 28, saw the formation of the opposition, the ruling National Rescue Cambodia (NLRB), pick an unexpected number of votes. 

The still unofficial results announced by the electoral commission awarded 55 seats against 64 for the opposition to the formation of power, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP). The latter is maintained, but he lost 22 members in the Lower House of Parliament in relation to the outgoing legislature and therefore the two-thirds majority. His political space will be affected in this authoritarian system thinly veiled by a sham democracy.

The opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, Hun Sen accuse him of having "confiscated" his victory because of multiple "fraud" and "irregularities". Local officials controlled by the government would have to vote the dead and missing ...

According to Sam Rainsy, his party would have 63 seats, that is to say, a majority that would allow him to form a government. It requires the establishment of a commission to investigate irregularities in the electoral process, the United Nations should supervise. But Hun Sen denied that the UN will be mixed. Sam Rainsy therefore calls for "mass protests". What the government has to respond by sending in the streets of Phnom Penhvéhicules tanks and soldiers.

A MAN BUT cruder FOXY

 

The extent of fraud and irregularities is difficult to determine a country's chaotic administration. One thing is certain, however: that the powerful machinery of the PPC in power, regularly accused of "preparing" rural voters to vote for the party of Prime Minister under penalty of retaliation ...

The advance of the opposition is not so surprising. One reason for its success is demographic: half of the 14 million Cambodians under 25 years. Those have not experienced the "autogénocidaire" Khmer Rouge regime (1975-1979). Hun Sen, a former Red officer, has built its image as savior of the nation since he became Prime Minister after defecting from the Vietnamese enemy in the twilight of the Pol Pot era, he returned to Phnom Penh 1979 Hanoi soldiers who "liberated" the city after four years of horror. His regime has certainly helped to make the country a certain prosperity. The infrastructure has improved, some Cambodians are enriched, the standard of living is high.

But this is not enough: the power of Hun Sen, 61, is based on the foundation of a corrupt elite party that enriches real growth but doped - among others - by Chinese investors. Income disparity between rich new related cronies power has grown, the number of farmers forced off their land to make way for real estate projects guided by unscrupulous promoters has increased since the early 2000s. Although recently was introduced land reform intended to moderate the effects of the grant of thousands of hectares to a plethora of businessmen close to Cambodia "from above."

Added to this, even if it is not the determining factor, a certain weariness with this quasi-one-party system and widespread corruption. But if the Prime Minister, who announced his intention to maintenirau power until his 74 years, just to feel the wind of the ball, he firmly held political, police and military reins.

The ring of Phnom Penh, two old adversaries that everything separates, history, class, culture, are in any case the two great figures of the large uncertainties post-election period. Sam Rainsy, 64, has a French passport. Party in France as a teenager, this educated man, the verb hairline, comes from a family of the elite. His father was a close associate of King Sihanouk, he became a minister before disappearing in mysterious circumstances remained. He studied in Paris, graduated from INSEAD in Fontainebleau, was banker Paribas. Victim of political trials, he says, he had to flee his country twice after two convictions, the last in absentia in 2010 to twelve years in prison. He returned to the country on July 18, nine days before the election, thanks to a "royal pardon".

The former soldier Hun Sen is a cruder, but cunning man, gifted with great political intelligence. Strategically, he knows how to use to its advantage the intricacies of the game area go: did he not manage the feat to remain allied with Hanoi, ancestral enemies of the Chinese, while becoming a partner Economic Beijing?

The street name change, especially among young people, could it semobiliser? Was asked the other day if Sam Rainsy called for a "Cambodian spring." "No, he answered, it will be a summer Cambodia!"

The near future will tell whether we are heading towards a confrontation or a compromise in the form of a power-sharing between the two forces. This last hypothesis is not excluded ...


philipbruno@gmail.com Correspondent in South East Asia
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2013/08/14/au-cambodge-confrontation-ou-compromis_3461701_3232.html