Thailand: No major censure trauma, but damage certainly done

June 27, 2008
By Kittipong Thavevong
The Nation

Public attention is firmly focused on the House of Representatives, which is set to vote today after three days of censure debate against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and seven Cabinet members.

All of the Cabinet members targeted in the no-confidence grilling are from the People Power Party (PPP), the largest coalition partner.

The outcome is predictable, however. All of the targets will be given a majority vote of approval. In fact, that has been the case throughout Thai political history.

Coalition parties are unlikely to vote against the targeted ministers, even though some of their MPs may complain about "unclear" or "insufficient" explanations offered by certain Cabinet members to the opposition's allegations.

It has been a long-held custom for MPs from coalition parties to vote in support of targeted Cabinet members. The worst thing they can do to particular ministers they really don't trust is to abstain, although it is a secret ballot.

Something more interesting is the consequence of the censure debate.

The prime minister is unlikely to resign his seat and dissolution of the House of Representatives is out of the question.

Samak would rather opt to change the line-up of his Cabinet, in order to mitigate damage done during the censure grilling.

At least two of those targeted in the opposition's censure motion are expected to be replaced in an imminent Cabinet shake-up. They are Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama and Deputy Premier and Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan.

Five other Cabinet seats are likely to be affected in a "major" reshuffle, according a source from the ruling PPP, who said the conclusion was arrived at during a discussion between the party's key figures and some banned executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party.

Outside of Parliament, the street rally by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is unlikely to be as forceful as before. Most of the issues it raised against the government have been discussed in Parliament.

The government's decision to allow two key parliamentary debates earlier this week - the Senate's general debate on Monday on the country's problems and the lower House's censure debate over the three following days - is like opening the valve to release some political pressure, although the move may have been viewed as too late to resolve the ongoing political crisis.

The controversy over Cambodia's Preah Vihear Temple appeared to draw a large amount of people to the PAD's rally before the censure debate. Many PAD supporters are convinced the foreign minister's recent communique with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An in support of that country's bid to register the temple ruins as a World Heritage site could cause Thailand to lose more territorial area around Preah Vihear.

The PAD can still use the Preah Vihear controversy as the main ammunition in its assault on the government as long as the foreign minister is allowed to remain in office.

The government needs to sacrifice him for its survival.

The PAD may come up with yet another big issue to attack the government but it is unlikely to be as effective as the Preah Vihear controversy, which has managed to fire up widespread nationalistic fervour.

There is no end in sight for the PAD rally outside of Government House. But as long as the government refrains from use of force with the protesters, its legitimacy is intact.

After a Cabinet shake-up, the government is likely to be left with no major headaches for some time - until it trips itself up again.

Thai PM on the current Thai protest over Preah Vihear: "It tarnishes Thai-Cambodian relations"

PM lashes out at Opposition party leader in censure debate

BANGKOK, June 24 (TNA) - Thailand's Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej Tuesday expressed his frustration with Opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva who had launched relentless barrages upon him during his two-hour censure debate at Parliament.

The premier said he considered Mr. Abhisit's verbal attacks ''far removed from reason,'' but that he had sufficient patience.

Addressing the House of Representatives, Mr. Samak said he had not anticipated such unrelenting spates of verbal attacks from the opposition leader, but maintained that he could stand up to the barrage of attacks launched against him during the censure debate.

"I have been insulted by this man in his forties on groundless charges. His claims were too harsh," said the 73-year-old premier.

Mr. Samak commented that it was not quite fair to his coalition government and to himself to come under stern criticism because he had just run the country for a four-months time so far. The Democrat Party should have shown more patience by allowing the government to perform instead of initiating a censure debate at this time.

Meanwhile, the premier cautioned that the Democrats' criticisms regarding the government's handling of the Preah Vihear controversy might affect the state relations between Thailand and Cambodia.

"I don't know why some people are blowing the case of Preah Vihear entirely out of proportion," Mr. Samak said. "It tarnishes Thai-Cambodian relations."

Mr. Samak said Thailand had lost the world-renowned ancient temple complex to Cambodia under a World Court ruling in 1962 and had peacefully co-existed for 45 years until the Democrats dug up the controversy lately.

Thailand had clearly insisted that Cambodia, which planned to register Preah Vihear temple as a world heritage with United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) next month, must not annex any piece of disputed land around Preah Vihear as part of the temple.

The resurrected international issue needed to be handled with the utmost care, and bilateral relationships between Thailand and Cambodia are to remain intact, the premier said.

Mr. Samak said that some Thai nationals currently living in Cambodia were so worried about the matter that they asked him whether or not it might lead to the evacuation of all Thais from the neighbouring country.

In other areas, the opposition lawmakers will question the other ministers regarding mismanagement and inefficiency.

The two-day debate will end with a no-confidence vote on Thursday.

Thai PM faces critics in no-confidence debate

Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej

BANGKOK (AFP) — Thailand's prime minister faces his critics in a no-confidence debate beginning Tuesday, as he defends his four-month-old government from claims of mismanagement and cronyism.

Samak Sundaravej took office after his People Power Party (PPP) comfortably won elections in December, ending more than a year of rule by royalist generals who overthrew premier Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.

Samak had openly campaigned as an ally of Thaksin who would replicate his policies in rural areas, but his intimacy with the self-made tycoon despised by the elite and middle classes helped ignite the recent crisis.

The opposition Democrat Party claims Samak is running Thailand on behalf of Thaksin, who is banned from politics, while protesters camped outside Government House say he is suppressing corruption cases against his predecessor.

Democrat MPs also intend to grill Samak and seven cabinet ministers over their handling of the economy, a deal with Cambodia over a disputed temple, the transparency of procurement of buses for the capital, and other issues.

"We want only to do our job of investigating the government," Democrat Party spokesman Ong-art Klampaiboon told AFP.

"The investigation of a government's performance does not depend on how long they have been in office for. Once they show signs of corruption and inefficient work it's enough to lodge a no-confidence motion."

PPP spokesman Kudeb Saikrajang said Samak was confident going into the debate.

"He can answer any question because the government has done nothing wrong," Kudeb said. "This debate is an effort to link him with former premier Thaksin to destroy his reputation."

The debate will end with a no-confidence vote on Thursday, and Samak has vowed to step down if he loses.

This is a slim prospect, with Samak's six-party coalition dominating two-thirds of the 480-seat lower house, analysts say.

"The opposition doesn't have a large enough number of seats to make any difference, which reflects the fact they don't have the popular vote," said Giles Ji Ungpakorn, a politics professor at Chulalongkorn University.

Samak's toughest week yet began Monday with a debate before senators, nearly half of whom were appointed under the army-backed constitution.

The prime minister refuted charges that he was Thaksin's puppet, telling the Senate: "The members of our political parties may come from the same groups, but it's normal in Thai politics for people to change parties."

He also faces pressure from street protesters led by the so-called People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which brought 25,000 people to the gates of Samak's offices on Friday.

The PAD had led protests against Thaksin in the months before the coup, and its latest demonstrations have raised fears of a new coup, which has sent investors fleeing the Thai stock market.

Its rallies exert a strong influence because the leadership is seen as a reflection of the traditional power centres in the palace and the military.

Thaksin had antagonised Bangkok's elite with policies such as free healthcare that endeared him to Thailand's populous rural heartland.

Analysts say that even if Samak were somehow forced out of office, tensions would remain between the traditional elite and voters.

"Even if there is a house dissolution and a new election, the politics will resume the same road because the PPP will come back, a shadow of the Thaksin system, and the PAD will resume its action," said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political analyst at Thammasat University.