Thursday, September 21, 2006

Analysis of the Thai’s Coup d’Etat

Thailand's ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrives in London for a "private" visit after the military coup in his homeland, amid deep uncertainty about the country's next step.(AFP/POOL/Johnny Green)

By Monireak Keo
Op Ed posted online


September 20, 2006

The military coup in Thailand that took place on September 19, 2006 is not totally disconnected from the events in Cambodia .

As reported by some political analysts, the coup had the tacit support of King Bhumibol. We all know that Thai people, especially those living in Bangkok , are very unhappy with Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra over the sale of his family’s $1.9 billion telecommunication company to Singaporean investors without paying a single baht in taxes. This transaction enraged many Thais. Additionally, Thai people accused the Prime Minister of abusing his power by enriching himself further through corruption, by weakening democratic institutions, and manipulating the country’s court system.

The reform of 1997 Thai constitution had allowed Prime Minister Thaksin to accumulate a great amount of power that is near absolute. However, what finally brought the Prime Minister down was his veiled attack on the revered Thai King. Prime Minister Thaksin was very unpopular in Bangkok but he is still very popular in the countryside because of his policy by subsidizing healthcare and giving cash payouts to poor people. Sensing his strong popularity in the countryside that is almost equal to the King, the Prime Minister got bolder by saying in his June 2006 speech that a “charismatic person” was out to remove him from his Prime Minister position. Furthermore, he went on to say that a mysterious figure that he refused to name was “wielding extraconstitutional force” to push him from office. That speech did not go out unnoticed by King Bhumibol. It angered the king and his chief advisor, General Prem Tinsulanonda. Prime Minister Thaksin had made a major error. One shall not attack, even in an indirect fashion, the king of Thailand .

Seizing on this opportunity, small local businessmen everywhere have petitioned the king to block big foreign investments that are sprouting up all over the country which hurt small Thai businesses. In the meantime, King Bhumibol is also paying close attention to the event that is happening in Cambodia . The king noticed a similarity in style of governance and personality between Prime Minister Thaksin and Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia . He notices that Prime Minister Hun Sen has been denigrating Father-King Sihanouk and abusing the Khmer monarchy any which way he wants. King Bhumibol does not want to see the same thing happens to Thailand . He wants to clamp down on Prime Minister Thaksin while he still can and while he is still alive to preserve the institution of the Thai monarchy. If the king allowed Prime Minister Thaksin’s words go unchallenged, it will escalate into something bigger and harder to stop like the fate of the Khmer monarchy that is becoming the joke of the world.

To remind the Thai Prime Minister who is really in charge of the country, the king’s chief advisor, General Prem, put on his military uniform and toured the army camps across the country and reminded the soldiers that their loyalties rest with the king and not with the Prime Minister. From that day on it is all downhill for the Prime Minister.

Poor Sihanouk! Why can’t he be like King Bhumibol? Now that Thaksin is gone, Hun Sen has all the theaters to himself. However, I do not see Hun Sen being toppled like Thaksin. The only way Hun Sen can be removed is through his own people coming from his own party. All people surrounding Hun Sen are either loyal or scared of Hun Sen or both. Cambodia will be under Hun Sen’s grip for a very long time, unless…

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

It does not hurt to dream. But the only opposition to Hun Sen is corruption.

SiS

Anonymous said...

would be Hun Sen next and monigues a second for country better

Anonymous said...

Fully agreed on the last paragraph of this article.As we all have known for a very long time that there were a rift between Hun Sen gangs and Chea Sim-Sar Kheng group. But the question is how come Chea Sim-Sar Kheng's group don't make any moves at all instead they still hold on to each other eventhough they hate each. The answer is they don't have confidence among themselves yet in grabing powers from Hun Sen and his cliques.Hun Sen and his dogs will be down when Chea Sim-Sar Kheng's group is ready or else just forget about it. There will be no outside forces or other groups can challenge Hun Sen's power but the other half of CPP people.

Anonymous said...

Excellent analysis.

Anonymous said...

There is no way that Cambodia can be similar to Thailand. For so long as the pig cannot fly, the coupe like Thailand can never happen in Cambodia because those generals in the military are not on the king side or Chea Sim or Sar Kheng. They are on Hun Sen side and most of the ranks for those generals or chiefs are promoted by Hun Sen. Moreover, Vietnamese agents are still assisting Hun Sen. Therefore, no way.

Anonymous said...

Thai people are among nationalism and smart people to live in Bangkok and all over their country. Different from Cambodia, after Sihanouk has brought the killing regime to kill all Nationalist and all intectuals, Cambodia has all the monkies living with Hun Sen. They don't care anything beside of dollars. They do not care that Hun sen is selling off their country to vietcong. If we have a small fraction of nationlist still alive in Cambodia, Hun sen would be gone for along times ago. This animal has shamed Cambodia nationally,internationally and has harboured all terrorists in Cambodia to create sufferings to al Cambodian people.

Anonymous said...

No CPP members will go against AH HUN SEN because AH HUN SEN make sure that all the CPP clans are dirty and corrupted just like him! Second, the Vietcong double agents make sure AH HUN SEN and his clans must follow Hanio instruction down to the letter!

To have AH HUN SEN with primary education to run Cambodia is a fucken joke! Cambodian people can stop the joke by using full scale assassination!

Anonymous said...

I agree with comment SiS.
YUON XEN is sawing the branch which he sit down on.
His time is coming soon!

Anonymous said...

Is a good new for Thai people.
Next time for Hun Sen.......

Anonymous said...

Dear Thaksin !!! If I was like you, I would pay 50% of the sales of my business to the State of Thailand. I will play a role model to the Nation. People will love me indefinately. Now with all your fortunes, where do you want to live? A wiseman can sometime forget how to live with happiness and prosperity. With tones of monies, you lake of happiness and prosperity, you life is no different to a poor man !!!

Anonymous said...

This is what happen when one hangs around Saddam Hun Sen. He cannot be trusted or a good role model. All of the officials in Cambodia should be decapitate, and replace with the able one.

Anonymous said...

Dear Khmer's patriot. Please remember that siam they have their king but Khmer are better than them
because we have king kong.

Anonymous said...

I think the only one who can over throw Hun Sen is Tea Banh the cammander in chief of Cambodia military.

If Tea Banh is not loyal to the King of Cambodia, he should be loyal to the people of Cambodia.

Than again Tea Banh may be a better leader then Hun Sen. In my view anyone who can over throw Hun Sen are the HERROR OF THE KHMER PEOPLE and the hope for Cambodia's better future.

It would be nice to see a military coup to drop Hun Sen from power for a change. Doesn't anyone want to be the prime minister of Cambodia except for Hun Sen by force?.

Anonymous said...

Be careful what you wish for. The Iraqi people said the exact same things about Saddam Hussien. They dreamed of chasing him from power too, and eventually they got their wish. A lot of good it did them. Freedom don't mean shit when your family is dead.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Viet Xen's numbers are coming up. His time will come soon. He'll go to hell for what he has done to his country and its people.

Anonymous said...

I agreed with Mr Jame doe 3:01 PM 's comment. We all should use good sense to ventilate our angry and frustration about Cambodia's leaders into more careful and analytical ways. I give this scenerio, if the the group within CPP party or any other group were to stage coup or arm struggle, 99.9% there will be very heavy bloodshed, fragile livehood and economic are in jeopardy as well as border integrity (no body will care because of the chaos and anarchy).
The old words to to say,"I rather poor but not sick. Majority of people in Cambodia right now are poor but they live in peace. They can get up in the morning to go to do business or whatever for their living and support the families. Do they want to live in this kind of gov't or enviroment? may be "NO" Do they want to change for the better? Absolutely "YES". But how? Do they want to go back to arm struggle? Almost certainly "NO"
Thai people has been living under the King for over 60 years. Indonesian people live under SUHATO for 30 years. FILIPINO live inder FERDINAN MARCO for 30 years. Some problems don't always have solutions.

Anonymous said...

"Coup d'Etat" au Siam en 2006 : Zéro (o) mort !
"Règlement de comptes" au Kampuchea en 1997 : des milliers de massacrés.
Est-ce l'influence vietnamienne ou la façon de penser et d'agir des khmegn wat ?

Anonymous said...

Best wish to the Thai People for their changing. This was about four days ago that coup does not over yet. It seems everything okay for their people but we don't see what will be going on for their future. I agree a lot of things with Mr. or Mrs. 3:01. It has been seven years, we did not get 100% peaceful yet in Cambodia. Their no more bloodshet pour out in the ground anymore. I rather see my people are living in this condition for now. If someone conducts the war against Hun Sen, there is more lives to loose and homeless will be. We are young for democracy, even thoug we need to educate our next generation to understand about it. Right now what we need to do is to reform the school open free press. If we don't have these two our country will doom for ever. The coup in Thailand is about the power grapping it is not just Thaksin did not pay his tax. There is not a reason for this country to conduct a coup, They can take him to the surprime court and remove him to impeach him. If Thai people really understand their constitution. So far, I don't beleive they do. They depend on their king runnig their lives. I hope Cambodian will grow up and not learning from our neighbor. What I mean is the kings they think all the people in the country are belong to them as well as their properties. They call us sons or daughters that whole bunch of liars when they do that. Hun Sen will die one way or another even from sickness or by an accident, he can't live for ever. By that time our next generation will grow just like Singaporian look at them, they apply their democracy well.There is no problem after English left them years ago you know why because they have better systems and thay have no king, but they have free of speech.

Anonymous said...

A good analogy of Hun Sen and Thack Sin but Hun Sen is much worse than Thack Sin 100 times in both personality and political behavior. If Thacksin rules the country like Hun Sen, he won't survive for two weeks. Thacksin has some limit on his power but Sun sen totally control every thing in Cambodia. In the today's world, there is no any leader worse than Sun Sen.

Anonymous said...

Right now, Cambodia can not afford another Coupe. This will put Cambodia years backward. Things are beginning to improve in Cambodia. People are happy and living peacefully. It could be better... but it takes time to improve... Whatever the Thai King said, let's hope that it's not an incitement in Cambodia.

Anonymous said...

Hey Guys,

Having a coup in Cambodia now would be a very bad idea. As you know, we have suffered and lost a lot because of our differences. Regardless whatever Hun Sen does, Cambodia is much better than 16 years ago. People have more limited freedom and can do and go anywhere they want. I know that he is one of the devils running the country, but he is not as stupid as we think regardless of his education. He is no different than the King -father when he was young. Famour in the country side, but suppress the educated people in the cities. I totally agree that Hun Sen should step down, but not in a coup. I don't find anyone else that would better than him in Cambodia right now. They all are corrupted and childess. The prince? Well, he can't even run his family properly. Sam Ransy? Well, he is not good enough because just look at his party name real educated people can sense that it is not democratic. They should change the name and democratically elect the leader. Til then they will have a chance win the election and no need the coup. Chea Sin - Sar Kheng group? Well, they are too old, less educated, and even more closer to the Vietcong. Chea Sophara, former Phnom Penh governer and a CPP member, would have been a good candidate (a trained engineer), but he is to weak now. I don't believe that Tea Banh would be a good leader. He is close to Thai. I remember Chea Sophara got into trouble because he wanted to develop Prar Vihear, but Tea Banh, I think with the influence from the Thai, influenced Hun Sen to bring him down.

My point is if the country is going forward, don't turn it around. No more fighting, please. Look at Iraq. People are dying everyday. Who benefit? The rich! Let's wait for now. There will be one day a better leader, regradless which party he/she is in, will come. Remember, it is very hard to run a country like ours. If they are stupid and we are more educated, we should not be like them. We should how we can make Cambodia a better place to live. If you are not in the country, please come and visit. You'll find big difference. But, you should be patient because there are lots of things needed to be improved.

Cheers,

Just a simple Khmer cityzen.

Anonymous said...

To Simple Khmer Cityzen 12:06AM

I thought you were educated enough give such analysis of Sam Rainsy Party! But your fucken analysis are very flaky and stupid about the name of Sam Rainsy Party?

Why don't you tell Cambodian people of how many time AH HUN SEN force Sam Rainsy to change his party name? Did you remember that Sam Rainsy Party used to be Khmer Nation Party?!

You are nothing more than a simple stupid Khmer cityzen!! ahahah!