Saturday, March 17, 2007

Asia geopolitics: Japan-Australia security pact to counter China's rise

Claudio Munoz

We're just good friends, honest
Mar 15th 2007 | BEIJING AND TOKYO
The Economist


But China has reason to suspect Japan's military flirtation with Australia

WHEN he signed a security pact with Australia this week, Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, at a stroke doubled the number of Japan's allies. Until now, Japan has had formal security ties only with America, under whose protection Japan, with a pacifist constitution, has sat since the second world war.

Even if it falls well short of a mutual-defence treaty, to some Australians the agreement signed by John Howard in Tokyo on March 13th is unwarranted. After all, Japan came close to invading their country during the war; Australian prisoners-of-war were brutally treated in Japanese camps; and only a couple of weeks ago Mr Abe had brought ignominy upon himself by denying that foreign “comfort women” had been coerced into working in wartime military brothels. Elderly Australian women are among those who have testified otherwise. Yet the world moves on and in Mr Howard's view “Australia has no better friend or more reliable partner within the Asia-Pacific region than Japan.” Mr Abe spoke of a “shared destiny”.

So if it is now important that the two countries be allies, the natural question is, against whom? To ask this, both sides insist with prim faces, is entirely to miss the point. Co-operation between the two countries has deepened on several levels. Until last July, Australian troops had protected Japanese ones doing reconstruction work in southern Iraq. Nearer to home, peacekeeping troops have worked side-by-side in Cambodia and Timor-Leste.

Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister whose own father was a prisoner of the Japanese for more than three years, talks up their co-operation in disaster assistance after the Indian Ocean tsunami of late 2004. The two countries' aid programmes in Asia have shared objectives. Thus the agreement's provisions for regular meetings involving the two sides' foreign and defence ministers, joint military exercises, and more formal arrangements for sharing information would all improve humanitarian missions.

A security agreement is a symbolic way of building up those new aspects of the relationship, says Mr Downer. The two sides will also negotiate a free-trade agreement to strengthen economic ties. All good stuff. But the louder the denials from both sides, the more evident is the main catalyst for the security pact: the rise of China.

That may come as a surprise to some. Australia has often had to defend itself against charges from human-rights groups and others of sacrificing democratic principles for profits in its dealings with China, which has an inexhaustible appetite for the commodities, such as iron ore and uranium, that Australia is able to supply. But as an Australian diplomat explains: “China is a good, constructive commercial partner, but in terms of ideas and values, it will never be anywhere near as close to us as Japan. It's quite clear: Japan is our best friend in Asia.”

Australia's security posture has long been a cause for wariness in China, particularly because of its alliance with America and the possibility that Australia might come to America's aid in a war with China over Taiwan. Still, as long as the new pact does not imply Australian support for Japan in its territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea, China's government will attempt to hide its displeasure. Economic ties come first.

As for Mr Abe, the pact is of a piece with a more robust foreign policy for Japan that was begun by his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. Before sending troops to Iraq, Mr Koizumi had also dispatched supply ships from Japan's so-called Self-Defence Forces to the Indian Ocean to help with the war in Afghanistan in 2001.

Since he came to office last September, Mr Abe has redoubled Mr Koizumi's commitment to Japan's alliance with the United States, but wants to do more than just shelter under America's wing. He has pushed for faster deployment of missile-defence systems in the face of North Korean provocation. He has turned the Japanese Defence Agency into a full ministry, with a seat in the cabinet. And he wants the pacifist article nine of the constitution to be revised. Mr Abe has sought a new partnership with India, while building security ties with South-East Asia.

It all amounts to a strategy of balancing China's geopolitical reach: Japan, in other words, is not about to roll on its back to let China be the region's top dog. Mr Abe's domestic ineptitude may mean a short term in office, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner face crucial elections for parliament's upper house in July. Even if so, Japan's emerging regional posture is likely to survive him.

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