Analysis: [Thai Prime Minister] Surayud moves closer to Beijing

By Achara Ashayagachat
Bangkok Post

China is the first country the prime minister visited as interim premier in October. It is also the place where his communist father Col Payom, aka Comrade Kamtan, died in exile nearly a decade ago.

Even though the political turbulence at home prompted Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to cut short his official visit to Beijing by two days this week, the trip's significance - both strategically and symbolically - cannot be minimised.

The signing this week of a new pact with China signals Thailand's wish to make powerful friends, but will also likely raise concerns in Washington and some Asean capitals

Strategically, China is the second major power, after Japan, to receive Gen Surayud as leader of the coup-propped government, while countries in the West have shunned him.

The ties with China will be boosted by the signing of the Joint Strategic Plan of Action (2007-2011) today by deputy foreign ministers Sawanit Kongsiri and Dai Bingguo.

The 15-area comprehensive pact, to be signed by Mr Sawanit and Mr Dai in the presence of their bosses, is not only a framework for long-term partnership but also a blessing in disguise for the interim government whose relations with the United States have deteriorated amid questions regarding the coup, the Foreign Business Act and the latest intellectual property rights row.

Analysts believe the timing is right for engagement with China.

A political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, Panithan Watanayakorn, said it was smart of China to decide now to consummate the agreement which they have been contemplating for years.

"Washington considered Bangkok's leaning toward Beijing, especially during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration, somewhat irritating. The Joint Strategic Plan of Action will concern the US even more," said Mr Panithan.

The five-year plan is geared toward closer cooperation across a wide range of fields, from politics to communication, Thai officials said.

Cooperation in most areas will be expedited under existing bilateral mechanisms, but in the area of security cooperation, a working group will later be created to deal with the issue in a more institutional manner, sources said.

Apart from the joint action plan, two other accords, on the mutual recognition of higher educational institutions and establishment of cultural centres in both countries, will also be signed.

Thammasat University political science professor Surachai Sirikrai also agreed that the timing of the visit will improve the bargaining power of Thailand. "If we have another friend that is a major power, we will not be easily bullied. Hopefully, that will send a message to the US and Europe alike," he said.

China has shown sensitivity to post-coup Thailand by not allowing deposed prime minister Thaksin to use its territory as a launch pad to attack the junta and the military-installed government.

Clinching the strategic pact, which was actually proposed by Mr Thaksin during a visit to Beijing two years ago to mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries, is a continuation of a policy for mutual prosperity.

After Thai-Chinese diplomatic relations were established in 1975, the relationship gradually turned from enmity to friendship, especially after Thai leaders successfully pressed for the cessation of Chinese assistance to the Communist Party of Thailand.

The Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia in December 1978 followed by China's "punishment war" at the Vietnamese border a month later, highlighted how valuable to Thailand's security China was as an ally.

Both Beijing and Bangkok recognised their mutual interest in resisting the expansion of Vietnamese influence in Indochina. China wanted to supply the Khmer Rouge with arms in the struggle to liberate Cambodia, and there was no better place for a logistics network than through Thailand, wrote associate professor Chulacheeb Chinwanno in a recent academic paper on Sino-Thai relations.

According to the Thammasat lecturer, a convergence of security interests between Thailand and China was born there and has resulted in a strategic partnership - military aid and sales of weapons - which heightened when Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was defence minister and later prime minister.

At that time, several Asean members were afraid that Thailand would depend too much on Chinese arms, thus making it more like a strategic client than an equal partner, Mr Chulacheeb wrote.

To their relief, Thailand ran into many problems with the Chinese military supplies and turned away from them.

Thai-Chinese relations shifted again when Beijing offered a US$1-billion financial package to Thailand during the 1997 economic crisis. The two sides became even closer as economic strategic partners when Thailand was the first Asean member to sign an early-harvest chapter of the free-trade area agreement with Beijing four years ago.

Mr Panithan believes closer Sino-Thai relations have drawn both pro- and con- opinions from other Asean members.

Singapore might feel a need to show that they are not supportive of closer ties with China on the international front, but economically it agrees with Thailand that the Chinese are strategic players in the region's quest for economic stability and security.

Smaller Asean members such as Burma, Laos and Cambodia will certainly see no problem with closer Thailand-China contacts, since they are in the "China league", while allies of the US and former foes of Beijing, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, may doubt the wisdom of a closer security arrangement between Thailand and China, he said.

"We have a strong Chinese community, bound by close blood ties with mainland China, and Asean should understand that if we do not move on with China we will have less leverage in the region," Mr Panithan said.

He said that Gen Surayud also established close links with the US when he was a deputy military attache in Washington and despite the increasing military and security dialogue with China, Thailand is still dependent on the US in terms of training, culture and infrastructure, he said.

He said that Asean itself will have to engage China as a key partner in the East Asia community in the years to come.

What about the US? At the end of the year, the Asean-US 30th anniversary of relations will also be celebrated and leaders of both sides will meet in Singapore.

While Washington will make sure that President George W. Bush never sets foot on Thai soil which has been tainted by a coup d'etat, its secretary of state will meet with the Thai foreign minister in July at the Asean Regional Forum.

The meeting will ensure that the US and Thailand remain brothers in arms, if not in everything then at least against trans-national crime and terrorism.