TORONTO, Sep. 4
HARI SUD
Posted on UPI Asia Online
Column: Abroad View
As the year 2030 began, trade rivalry in the Indian Ocean was playing out in the form of a cat and a mouse game between China and India. At times, China had the advantage, at other times the same applied to India. Chinese was sending out feelers, hinting that all of Southeast Asia -- including Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines -- belonged to its sphere of influence. These countries, with their significant ethnic Chinese populations, acted as a lightening rod for China and forced it to adopt friendly policies.
India had already claimed everything from Myanmar to East Africa as its trade sphere of influence. The oil-rich Middle East sheikhdoms, Pakistan and Myanmar remained as wild cards. With oil production in the Middle East declining by 2030, oil revenues were halved. With most of their petro dollars invested in the West, big spenders in the Middle East were forced to dip into their cash reserves.
Unwilling to spend their diminished resources in the West, Middle Easterners turned to India and China to meet their commercial and military needs. Competition over this new source of income let to conflict between India and China. China's clever positioning in Muslim Pakistan now came in handy, as did the port it had built in Pakistan's southern city of Gawadar.
Pakistan, prosperous yet small and in possession of nuclear weapons, posed a serious challenge to India. The Pakistanis, looking for an opportunity to humiliate India, were ready to do China's bidding. The Kashmiri people, hating Pakistan for its role in the troublesome insurgency from 1990 to 2010, had turned against it. In short, Pakistan had lost its major cause for confrontation with India and was looking for another.
By 2030, the prosperous nations of India and China were competing for the lion's share of markets both in Asia and Africa. At times they intimidated each other over market share -- neither could afford to lose. The Chinese were aggressive marketers and in turn India threw away its traditional garb of peace and neutrality to confront China head on.
The West was enjoying the show from a distance. It had less interest in the Middle East as oil production declined. From Japan to Singapore, the United States had withdrawn in 2025, due to Chinese intimidation and lack of focus among policymakers in Washington. Japan had mustered all its strength and was keeping the Chinese at bay in the Pacific all the way to Singapore. The only places for China to turn were Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean littoral states. That is exactly where Indian interests also lay. These two interests were about to collide. In the summer of 2030 this power play came to a head.
China was unhappy about a trade agreement recently concluded between India and Indonesia, which discriminated against Chinese goods and services. Indonesia had every opportunity to align itself with China, but declined. The Indonesians never forgot the involvement of Chinese communists in their civil war in the mid-1960s. Rich in cash due to oil exports, the Indonesians preferred to purchase Indian goods. China had expressed its displeasure by sending its aircraft carrier group around Indonesia into the Bay of Bengal -- a clear reminder to India to stay clear of China's sphere of influence.
The message was well understood by the Indians, who were preparing their navy to counter any moves by the Chinese. This time the advantage was India's, as the Chinese navy was far from its home ports. The Chinese withdrew their naval fleet, but not before shooting at an Indian military patrol on land in the Indian coastal province of Arunachal, near Twang. India ignored the provocation, but the Chinese waited patiently for a second opportunity.
To begin further intimidation, China arranged a joint military exercise with Pakistan near the Indian post of Daulet Beg Oldi in Ladakh, Kashmir. This provocation was also well understood by India, which began upgrading roads running all along its northern border. Also a guerilla force of Tibetan exiles in India was made ready to go into Tibet at short notice. The Chinese got the message and called off their exercise with Pakistan. For this sudden cancellation, Pakistan was presented with a new set of China-made missiles as a prize.
Oil was running short. The United States, Japan and Europe were carrying off whatever still flowed from Middle Eastern oil wells. Only a small portion was available to the rest of the world. India and China were getting their oil from Russia, Venezuela, the surplus from the Turkish-Central Asian pipelines, Indonesia and Africa. Five years after the first sign of serious confrontation over Indonesian oil, a new crisis was brewing.
India had built a huge system to pump gas from Myanmar to India. China had done the same. Myanmar, thinking it could play one against the other and get more from both, had sold overlapping contracts. It happened that China had contracted a fixed amount of gas for the summer of 2035, and so had India. Myanmar's ability to produce the contracted quantities depended upon the timely operation of new gas fields along the Myanmar coast, which India was building. The project was delayed by inclement weather and a tsunami. Unmindful, Myanmar agreed to provide the Chinese government its contracted amount, leaving India at a disadvantage. India demanded its share but went unheard.
Soon, India posted its navy at the offshore gas fields to divert the right amount of gas to the Indian pipeline. It was China's turn to take offense and respond with suitable action. China entered the Bay of Bengal with a huge naval flotilla. The rest of the world held its breath; a shooting war was about to begin.
It did begin in the fall of 2035, when the Chinese sighted an Indian naval vessel on patrol duty and sank it.
India protested strongly and ordered all Chinese vessels out of Myanmar ports. Two days later India attacked a Chinese naval listening post off the Myanmar coast, which had long been a thorn in India's side. The Chinese garrison resisted, but finally surrendered. An eye for an eye message had been given, with India holding 150 Chinese as prisoners of war.
Realizing the gravity of the situation, the U.N. Security Council met in New York. In an energy-starved world, it could find no solution other than encouraging the speedy completion of the new offshore gas facilities. In the meantime, the Myanmar government was advised to institute a policy of rationing its gas exports. This solution was unacceptable to both China and Myanmar. Hence, the danger of war remained grave. Stealth submarines routinely chased each other and surface ships were on constant alert.
War was a trifle away. A trigger-happy captain on either side could begin a major conflagration. This war could seriously hurt commerce in sea-lanes through the Straits of Malacca, putting the West at a disadvantage. A U.S. naval carrier force arrived with a mandate to shoot anybody who shot first.
China ordered its carrier group to return home. The Indian carrier force returned to its home port minus one ship. Strategically, Chinese ambitions had suffered a major jolt. They would not attempt anything like this again for a long time.
The Indian ruling party suffered a defeat in the next elections. The loss of 150 men at sea at the hands of the Chinese was too much for any government to survive.
(To be continued in Part II: Snowy Himalayan peaks come alive)
--
(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
India had already claimed everything from Myanmar to East Africa as its trade sphere of influence. The oil-rich Middle East sheikhdoms, Pakistan and Myanmar remained as wild cards. With oil production in the Middle East declining by 2030, oil revenues were halved. With most of their petro dollars invested in the West, big spenders in the Middle East were forced to dip into their cash reserves.
Unwilling to spend their diminished resources in the West, Middle Easterners turned to India and China to meet their commercial and military needs. Competition over this new source of income let to conflict between India and China. China's clever positioning in Muslim Pakistan now came in handy, as did the port it had built in Pakistan's southern city of Gawadar.
Pakistan, prosperous yet small and in possession of nuclear weapons, posed a serious challenge to India. The Pakistanis, looking for an opportunity to humiliate India, were ready to do China's bidding. The Kashmiri people, hating Pakistan for its role in the troublesome insurgency from 1990 to 2010, had turned against it. In short, Pakistan had lost its major cause for confrontation with India and was looking for another.
By 2030, the prosperous nations of India and China were competing for the lion's share of markets both in Asia and Africa. At times they intimidated each other over market share -- neither could afford to lose. The Chinese were aggressive marketers and in turn India threw away its traditional garb of peace and neutrality to confront China head on.
The West was enjoying the show from a distance. It had less interest in the Middle East as oil production declined. From Japan to Singapore, the United States had withdrawn in 2025, due to Chinese intimidation and lack of focus among policymakers in Washington. Japan had mustered all its strength and was keeping the Chinese at bay in the Pacific all the way to Singapore. The only places for China to turn were Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean littoral states. That is exactly where Indian interests also lay. These two interests were about to collide. In the summer of 2030 this power play came to a head.
China was unhappy about a trade agreement recently concluded between India and Indonesia, which discriminated against Chinese goods and services. Indonesia had every opportunity to align itself with China, but declined. The Indonesians never forgot the involvement of Chinese communists in their civil war in the mid-1960s. Rich in cash due to oil exports, the Indonesians preferred to purchase Indian goods. China had expressed its displeasure by sending its aircraft carrier group around Indonesia into the Bay of Bengal -- a clear reminder to India to stay clear of China's sphere of influence.
The message was well understood by the Indians, who were preparing their navy to counter any moves by the Chinese. This time the advantage was India's, as the Chinese navy was far from its home ports. The Chinese withdrew their naval fleet, but not before shooting at an Indian military patrol on land in the Indian coastal province of Arunachal, near Twang. India ignored the provocation, but the Chinese waited patiently for a second opportunity.
To begin further intimidation, China arranged a joint military exercise with Pakistan near the Indian post of Daulet Beg Oldi in Ladakh, Kashmir. This provocation was also well understood by India, which began upgrading roads running all along its northern border. Also a guerilla force of Tibetan exiles in India was made ready to go into Tibet at short notice. The Chinese got the message and called off their exercise with Pakistan. For this sudden cancellation, Pakistan was presented with a new set of China-made missiles as a prize.
Oil was running short. The United States, Japan and Europe were carrying off whatever still flowed from Middle Eastern oil wells. Only a small portion was available to the rest of the world. India and China were getting their oil from Russia, Venezuela, the surplus from the Turkish-Central Asian pipelines, Indonesia and Africa. Five years after the first sign of serious confrontation over Indonesian oil, a new crisis was brewing.
India had built a huge system to pump gas from Myanmar to India. China had done the same. Myanmar, thinking it could play one against the other and get more from both, had sold overlapping contracts. It happened that China had contracted a fixed amount of gas for the summer of 2035, and so had India. Myanmar's ability to produce the contracted quantities depended upon the timely operation of new gas fields along the Myanmar coast, which India was building. The project was delayed by inclement weather and a tsunami. Unmindful, Myanmar agreed to provide the Chinese government its contracted amount, leaving India at a disadvantage. India demanded its share but went unheard.
Soon, India posted its navy at the offshore gas fields to divert the right amount of gas to the Indian pipeline. It was China's turn to take offense and respond with suitable action. China entered the Bay of Bengal with a huge naval flotilla. The rest of the world held its breath; a shooting war was about to begin.
It did begin in the fall of 2035, when the Chinese sighted an Indian naval vessel on patrol duty and sank it.
India protested strongly and ordered all Chinese vessels out of Myanmar ports. Two days later India attacked a Chinese naval listening post off the Myanmar coast, which had long been a thorn in India's side. The Chinese garrison resisted, but finally surrendered. An eye for an eye message had been given, with India holding 150 Chinese as prisoners of war.
Realizing the gravity of the situation, the U.N. Security Council met in New York. In an energy-starved world, it could find no solution other than encouraging the speedy completion of the new offshore gas facilities. In the meantime, the Myanmar government was advised to institute a policy of rationing its gas exports. This solution was unacceptable to both China and Myanmar. Hence, the danger of war remained grave. Stealth submarines routinely chased each other and surface ships were on constant alert.
War was a trifle away. A trigger-happy captain on either side could begin a major conflagration. This war could seriously hurt commerce in sea-lanes through the Straits of Malacca, putting the West at a disadvantage. A U.S. naval carrier force arrived with a mandate to shoot anybody who shot first.
China ordered its carrier group to return home. The Indian carrier force returned to its home port minus one ship. Strategically, Chinese ambitions had suffered a major jolt. They would not attempt anything like this again for a long time.
The Indian ruling party suffered a defeat in the next elections. The loss of 150 men at sea at the hands of the Chinese was too much for any government to survive.
(To be continued in Part II: Snowy Himalayan peaks come alive)
--
(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
2 comments:
Is this how you want to see the future? Future is unpredictable!
Soon people won't fighting each other over scrape on Earth because the advance in space age technologies will help human colonize the moon, Mars, and beyond!
I try to image seeing float casinos, hotels, and factories, theme parks and space stations from many countries in space in my life time!
he is crazy! he says like the real! Even he can guess by: two days later in 2035! shit! impossible! This makes his paper untrusted!
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