Sunday, December 09, 2007

Cambodia on steady but uncertain path to future success

Cambodia slowly rising again from Khmer Rouge killing fields

Country on steady but uncertain path to future success

Sunday, December 9, 2007
San Francisco Chronicle (Calif., USA)

I recently returned from a 10-day trip to Vietnam and Cambodia, courtesy of a journalism fellowship sponsored by the German Marshall Fund. Before embarking on the trip, I sought questions from the Chronicle's "Two Cents" pool of contributors. What did they want to know about the two countries with whom the United States had such a tortured experience in the not-so-distant past? Interestingly, it was the impact of that past, and America's contribution to it - almost as much as what the two countries look like today - that concerned readers who responded.

Below are some impressions I gained from my all-too-brief visit, beginning with Cambodia, along with answers, to readers' questions, to the best of my ability. Next week: Vietnam.

- Andrew Ross, Chronicle
interactive editor

Up from Year Zero

Cambodia, whose path to a proletarian paradise was paved by a hell on earth (Year Zero, the Khmer Rouge called it), is trying - oh, how it is trying - to rise up from the funeral pyre to which it was reduced a mere generation ago.

In 2007, Cambodians say, they are only in their "ninth year of peace," emerging from decades of carpet bombing, invasions, civil war and, finally, a coup in 1997, into a period of unaccustomed tranquility.

That it has come as far as it has, compared to other "post-conflict countries" - an economic annual growth rate of 10 percent, sometimes more, over the past decade - is quite remarkable in the opinion of experts. The World Bank, one of the chief financiers of Cambodia's rebuilding, thinks the nation is on a path to become a "middle-income country" in just eight years.

Many of these same experts, however, including World Bank officials, say it is far from a sure bet. "It will take another generation to get things right here," said one official. "But the future is tomorrow."

Fueled in large part by postwar reconstruction, international aid and the presence of about 1,000 well-meaning if not always helpful Western nongovernmental organizations, there was more of the future than the ghost town I initially expected to see. Lots of Toyota Camrys and night life in Phnom Penh. Many hotels and houses going up there and along the highway north to the temples of Angkor Wat, which are expected to attract 3 million tourists next year. Optimistic statements from government officials - to be expected, of course - but also, if somewhat more guarded, from Western nongovernmental organizations, which naturally tend to see the grimmer sides of economic life.

If one were to "review" Cambodia like Cnet reviews high-tech products, or The Chronicle reviews restaurants, mine might go something like this:

The good:

-- Strong presence in the international garment business, thanks in good measure to investments made early on by San Francisco-based Levi Strauss and the Gap, and a binding agreement to observe international labor standards.

-- Explosive growth in tourism, powered by foreign investment in resort developments around Phnom Penh, Siem Reap and the sandy beaches of Sihanoukville, in the south.

-- The distinct possibility of significant future wealth generated by bauxite and gold (the Australians are already drilling); oil and gas off its own coast (where San Ramon-based Chevron has major exploration rights) and, even more significantly, in offshore fields straddling the Thai-Cambodian border.

-- An increasingly powerful Asian economy that is pulling Cambodia along in its wake. As one government minister put it hopefully, "Cambodia is at the center of gravity" of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is taking steps to greater political and economic integration.

-- A strong, commonly shared desire to "get things right."

The bad:

-- 3.5 million Cambodians, one-third of the population, in dire poverty. Even more do not have regular access to electricity, clean water or roads. Such inadequacies of infrastructure aren't the most attractive lures for outside investors.

-- An enormous dropout rate in schools that mars a reasonably high literacy rate (74 percent) and solid primary school enrollment. A low level of skills (increasingly critical to participate in a rapidly modernizing global economy), and some cracks in labor practices that include the far-too-frequent bumping off of union leaders. According to a recent survey by the International Trade Union Confederation, attacks on workers by "police and thugs" have been occurring on a monthly basis.

-- Overdependence on the garment business - estimated to support 3 million Cambodians, through direct employment and family remittances - which this year started to show indications of decline amid growing competition from elsewhere in Asia. "The only people with real U.S. influence here," said U.S. Ambassador Joseph Mussomeli, "are Levi Strauss and the Gap. If they pulled out, it would be a disaster for the country."

-- Endemic corruption, ranging from government officials - who control access to construction contracts and to what Cambodia may have underground and under the sea - to low-level teachers who demand payments (bribes, actually) from their students.

-- Patronage and greed, a specialty of Cambodia's plutocratic, so-called "50 families."

-- Thuggery. Blatant land grabs involving the expulsion and dumping of poor communities, often into makeshift camps surrounded by barbed wire. The next time you're lying on the beach at Sihanoukville, it may have come at the expense of what one Asian magazine last month called the brutality of evictions of local residents that have reached "alarming levels."

Bottom line:

The downsides, and the challenges they pose, are no secret. Prime Minister Hun Sen, at an investor conference last month, said as much. It's the implementation of needed reforms that is more problematic. Apart from vested interests, traditions and the universal instinct to take short cuts, illegal and otherwise, Cambodian society has the added burden that its most fundamental structures - governance, law, administration, education - were utterly destroyed in Year Zero, along with trust. All of which have to be painfully rebuilt. So long as the Asian economic tide continues to rise, Cambodia will probably be lifted along with it. But what if the tide ebbs, and integration gives way to more fierce competition?

As I look at my notes from the trip, peruse various economic and other reports, and pace around thinking about what I saw, heard and read, I can only come up with the vague, unsatisfactory cliche - that the country's future hangs in the balance.

But if there's any justice at all, Cambodia deserves to make it.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fair enough, but we will continued to develop our economy and created jobs for the millions jobless as quick as possibly. That is all we can do. And yes, those who will not get jobs soon will continued to feel the effect of the brutal inflation that is mainly from the rocketing fuel price. Based on current trend, we still have about 10-15 more years before the jobless rating will be low enough to allow the capitalist economy to do its miracle.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations!!! After more than 20 years from the Khmer Rouge, Cambodia is still can not feed itself. It's still a begger state that relies mostly on international aids. Based on current trend, it will take about 200 more years for Cambodia to catch up to Thailand's current economic level. Even communist countries such as China and Vietnam are doing better than Cambodia. What's wrong with Cambodia? Bad leadership (lack of economic vision, poor rules of laws, corruptions, etc...) and lazy population (talk tough & act cool, produce no results).

Anonymous said...

Endemic corruption, ranging from government officials - who control access to construction contracts and to what Cambodia may have underground and under the sea - to low-level teachers who demand payments (bribes, actually) from their students.
These words alone mean more than Cambodian government can take. It hits right in the fore head. The clean up in the education from top to bottom is the basis to help graduated students have confident in finding jobs. The well educated workers are structure for families. Families are structure for country. The sen’s government must have families as structure to govern.
Instead of just comments, I would like to suggest the current government especially department of education to start a program to identify the root cause of the corruption in the education system. It is possible more than one but take the top 5 issues and solve within 3 to 4 months. This may save the Cambodian. It has been a long way from ground zero.

Anonymous said...

Wrong, 6:50, $700Millions of international doesn't mostly feeding us when our economy is $7billions.

Anonymous said...

Corruption is everywhere, 7:27, and no one is dying over it. Plus, most of it will disappeared once our economy is fully grown. Thus, it is not a nightmare for us.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Hun San has his people everywhere including here to defend him on almost every issues.

Anonymous said...

What is wrong with that? Doesn't everyone does the same thing? Why are you so anxious to suppress us, huh?

Anonymous said...

Thank you, PM Hun Sen for creating so much jobs for us. PM Hun, your cabinets are filthy with immoral incompetent idiots -- starting with the man in charge!

Thank you for enacting laws for your citizens, where a criminal can bribe your officials and walk the dirt road/street to commit another heinous crimes. Your laws are aimed to protect your officials. Thank you very for making the Country being much the beggar or thuggery state.

PM Hun, what is your plan solving the unemployment, corruption, education, health, crimes, impunity laws, border integrity, and least not last LAND EVICTION? PLEASE TELL THAT YOU HAVE AN ACCREDITED STAFFING IN YOUR CABINETS!

Anonymous said...

Oh, shut the fuck up. You ain't going to make Ah Khmer-Yuons any more than slaves with rubbishes, dude.

Anonymous said...

Gentleman

Due to better communication, everyone who accesses internet, listens to global news via television or reads the news aware of has happened in cambodia. Corruption is a shame of our country, World Bank and the UN acknowledge the intensity of it. And thank to those countries and genuine NGOs have assisted cambodia to re imerge from year zero. National assets have been stolen as powerful continues to abuse public power and oppresses rights of cambodians. Cambodia has every opportunity to grow, her wealth is at potential risk unless new governance is implemented.

It has already been raised, a better structure of education should be focused. Be in ASEAN means that public educaion needs transformation, relatively levelled to regional partners.Importantly, an effective taxation is urgently required with these day affordable technology.It has been indicated that half to one billion lost every year, not to mention about official number manipulation of every level of hiarrachy for which simply the poors will get poorer.

Low interest loans have been poured
into cambodia where powerful individual and political benefit have gained. Misleading and mismanagement of these funds have led to debts to every young innocent cambodian child. This is a crime to our own children apart from thev well off

If there is no effective taxation adopted, no real full time work for those abuser, and the black traders( OKHNAS)and corrupt leaders will continue to deplete newly discovered assetts unless promt action is taken by World Bank and the UN preventing generation cambodians become debtor.

Neang SA

Anonymous said...

I agreed to the first three comments. Cambodia still have a long way to go... We should not take things for granted. Some of us might think the state of Cambodia is real good but not really... even though there are some achievements done but are a lot more to be done and the government should not be quick to take credits. Cambodians deserve better... I would hope the government would do all it can to give Cambodian a second to build their lives; which means government must fight corruption, strengthen rule of law, toughen education standard, simplify investment procedures, invest more in country side, invest and regulate energy etc... in short set the path for the people to growth... without disruptions. The government must do the government's job and let the people do the people's job. I think if we all do our parts the country will prosper... that we all can be proud of.

Anonymous said...

1:41, you should give yourself a break. You have been hanging around with Ah Khmer-Yuons for too long. You even sound like them (Yuon's Slaves) for crying out loud.