KHMER INTELLIGENCE
13 January 2008
U.S. Report on Cambodia six months prior to crucial elections (1)
A new report on Cambodia has just been issued by a group of academics at Princeton University (New Jersey, U.S.A.). Entitled "Idealism Without Illusions: Lessons from Post-Conflict Elections in Cambodia, Rwanda and Sudan", it presents findings and recommendations for upcoming elections in the three countries to members of the international community, especially the U.S. State Department, the UN Electoral Assistance Division, and donor nations.
On "The 2008 Elections in Cambodia" (pages 12 to 20), the report particularly warns against electoral manipulation by the CPP: "The ruling Cambodian People's Party has shifted its techniques of electoral manipulation from outright violence and vote fraud to more subtle methods."
Click here to see the full report.
Authorities surreptitiously destroyed one of Cambodia's largest Buddha statutes (1)
In late December 2007, the authorities surreptitiously destroyed one of Cambodia's largest Buddha statutes which had been recently erected in the compound of a pagoda (Wat Nirot) in the southern part of Phnom Penh. The statute, built with donations from Cambodians living in the USA, was over 50 meters high. Its removal was necessary to widen National Road # 1 leading to Vietnam. Its destruction had to be surreptitious in order not to shock the population in this predominantly Buddhist nation.
Over 75 percent of Cambodians live under poverty line (1)
According to the latest official statistics, 35 percent of Cambodians live below the "national poverty line", which is defined as $0.75 of income a day. But if the poverty line is raised to $2 a day, which is the level used to measure poverty in most developing countries in Asia and Africa, 77.7 percent of Cambodia's population live under this more realistic poverty line. The 35 percent of Cambodians identified above through our "national poverty line", are actually those who survive under a "starvation line" of $0.75 a day.
Source: 2007/2008 Reports, Human Development Reports, UNDP.
Official consumer price index underestimates real inflation (2)
According to the official index that is supposed to measure inflation, consumer prices in Cambodia have increased by only 6.5 percent over the last twelve months. As already pointed out ((Khmer Intelligence News, 27 October 2007: "Acceleration of inflation"), retail prices for staples, especially food for ordinary people (rice, fish, pork, beef, vegetables, fruits) have shown an increase of 20 to 30 percent in the second half of 2007. Over the whole year 2007, food prices have definitely increased by over 30 percent, far more than what the official consumer price index may suggest. Poor people, especially the three-fourths of Cambodians who live on less than $2 dollars a day (see news above) spend virtually all their income on food just to survive. Therefore, the official price index is irrelevant for the vast majority of the Cambodian people whose living conditions are being tragically eroded by inflation.
As for the causes of the accelerating inflation, the government put forward four reasons: increase in consumer demand associated with Cambodia's economic growth; increase in crude oil price on the international market; avian flu and pig diseases in neighboring countries; depreciation of the U.S. dollar on the currency market. On its part, the opposition SRP gives four different reasons to explain inflation: commercial monopolies associated with government corruption; excessive taxes on petroleum products benefiting powerful smugglers with government protection; depreciation of the riel which is pegged to the US dollar because of Cambodia's weak economic foundations; uncontrolled increase in the money supply for political and electoral reasons.
For more details on inflation click here.
Provincial and district leaders to be elected in 2009 and 2010 (1)
On 15 January 2008, the National Assembly will convene to discuss a draft amendment to the Constitution submitted by the government related to a change in the "administration of provinces and districts." The objective of the CPP-led government is to organize in 2009 and 2010 the election of provincial and district leaders as new steps toward decentralization. But in the mind of the government, only the current commune councilors (11,353) and parliamentarians (184) will have the right to vote in those indirect elections based on a system of party lists and proportional representation. The parliamentary opposition represented by the SRP is asking for universal suffrage to allow Cambodia's total electorate of 8 million ordinary citizens/voters to directly elect provincial and district leaders, including city governors, by allowing independent candidates (no need to be affiliated with any political party) to run and by using first-past-the-post electoral system.
After the 1 April 2007 commune election, the CPP controls 7,993 commune councilors (out of 11,353), the SRP 2,660, the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) 425 and Funcinpec 274. If indirect elections were hold on the basis of this balance of power, the CPP would get 257 Phnom Penh or provincial councilor seats (out of 340), the SRP 73, the NRP 7, and Funcinpec 3.
At the next senatorial election scheduled for 2011 (Senators also would be elected by the 11,353 current commune councilors), the CPP would obtain 50 senatorial seats (out of 61), with the remaining 11 seats going to the SRP. The NRP and Funcinpec would be virtually wiped out from the political scene.
[End]
13 January 2008
U.S. Report on Cambodia six months prior to crucial elections (1)
A new report on Cambodia has just been issued by a group of academics at Princeton University (New Jersey, U.S.A.). Entitled "Idealism Without Illusions: Lessons from Post-Conflict Elections in Cambodia, Rwanda and Sudan", it presents findings and recommendations for upcoming elections in the three countries to members of the international community, especially the U.S. State Department, the UN Electoral Assistance Division, and donor nations.
On "The 2008 Elections in Cambodia" (pages 12 to 20), the report particularly warns against electoral manipulation by the CPP: "The ruling Cambodian People's Party has shifted its techniques of electoral manipulation from outright violence and vote fraud to more subtle methods."
Click here to see the full report.
Authorities surreptitiously destroyed one of Cambodia's largest Buddha statutes (1)
In late December 2007, the authorities surreptitiously destroyed one of Cambodia's largest Buddha statutes which had been recently erected in the compound of a pagoda (Wat Nirot) in the southern part of Phnom Penh. The statute, built with donations from Cambodians living in the USA, was over 50 meters high. Its removal was necessary to widen National Road # 1 leading to Vietnam. Its destruction had to be surreptitious in order not to shock the population in this predominantly Buddhist nation.
Over 75 percent of Cambodians live under poverty line (1)
According to the latest official statistics, 35 percent of Cambodians live below the "national poverty line", which is defined as $0.75 of income a day. But if the poverty line is raised to $2 a day, which is the level used to measure poverty in most developing countries in Asia and Africa, 77.7 percent of Cambodia's population live under this more realistic poverty line. The 35 percent of Cambodians identified above through our "national poverty line", are actually those who survive under a "starvation line" of $0.75 a day.
Source: 2007/2008 Reports, Human Development Reports, UNDP.
Official consumer price index underestimates real inflation (2)
According to the official index that is supposed to measure inflation, consumer prices in Cambodia have increased by only 6.5 percent over the last twelve months. As already pointed out ((Khmer Intelligence News, 27 October 2007: "Acceleration of inflation"), retail prices for staples, especially food for ordinary people (rice, fish, pork, beef, vegetables, fruits) have shown an increase of 20 to 30 percent in the second half of 2007. Over the whole year 2007, food prices have definitely increased by over 30 percent, far more than what the official consumer price index may suggest. Poor people, especially the three-fourths of Cambodians who live on less than $2 dollars a day (see news above) spend virtually all their income on food just to survive. Therefore, the official price index is irrelevant for the vast majority of the Cambodian people whose living conditions are being tragically eroded by inflation.
As for the causes of the accelerating inflation, the government put forward four reasons: increase in consumer demand associated with Cambodia's economic growth; increase in crude oil price on the international market; avian flu and pig diseases in neighboring countries; depreciation of the U.S. dollar on the currency market. On its part, the opposition SRP gives four different reasons to explain inflation: commercial monopolies associated with government corruption; excessive taxes on petroleum products benefiting powerful smugglers with government protection; depreciation of the riel which is pegged to the US dollar because of Cambodia's weak economic foundations; uncontrolled increase in the money supply for political and electoral reasons.
For more details on inflation click here.
Provincial and district leaders to be elected in 2009 and 2010 (1)
On 15 January 2008, the National Assembly will convene to discuss a draft amendment to the Constitution submitted by the government related to a change in the "administration of provinces and districts." The objective of the CPP-led government is to organize in 2009 and 2010 the election of provincial and district leaders as new steps toward decentralization. But in the mind of the government, only the current commune councilors (11,353) and parliamentarians (184) will have the right to vote in those indirect elections based on a system of party lists and proportional representation. The parliamentary opposition represented by the SRP is asking for universal suffrage to allow Cambodia's total electorate of 8 million ordinary citizens/voters to directly elect provincial and district leaders, including city governors, by allowing independent candidates (no need to be affiliated with any political party) to run and by using first-past-the-post electoral system.
After the 1 April 2007 commune election, the CPP controls 7,993 commune councilors (out of 11,353), the SRP 2,660, the Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP) 425 and Funcinpec 274. If indirect elections were hold on the basis of this balance of power, the CPP would get 257 Phnom Penh or provincial councilor seats (out of 340), the SRP 73, the NRP 7, and Funcinpec 3.
At the next senatorial election scheduled for 2011 (Senators also would be elected by the 11,353 current commune councilors), the CPP would obtain 50 senatorial seats (out of 61), with the remaining 11 seats going to the SRP. The NRP and Funcinpec would be virtually wiped out from the political scene.
[End]
1 comment:
Sam Rainsy said that the CPP should explain to the people to understand that 07 January was the day that Cambodia lost her independence and national integrity
Bravo!I go with him and U.S.A.
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