Wednesday, January 09, 2008

World Bank: Cambodia economic growth at 8% in 2008

World Bank Estimates Malaysia's Growth At 5.9 Percent In 2008

By D. Arul Rajoo

BANGKOK, Jan 9 (Bernama) -- Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 0.2 percent to 5.9 percent this year, the World Bank (WB) said in its Global Economic Prospects 2008 released Wednesday.

The World Bank said Malaysia, which achieved 5.7 percent growth last year, would also see steady rise to 6.0 percent in 2009.

Growth in East Asia and the Pacific is projected to remain strong, with GDP easing by just 0.3 percentage points to 9.7 percent in 2008 and retaining strength in 2009 with an advance of 9.6 percent.

The World Bank said effects from the turmoil in the world's financial centres may be small in most economies in the region, adding that except for China, direct exposures of financial institutions in the region to mortgage-based securities (or subprime crisis) are limited.

With 10.8 percent growth estimated this year, China remains the fastest growing country in the region although it dropped from 11.3 percent achieved last year.

The report said that growth in China was expected to slow modestly, dropping less than a percentage point over the period to 10.5 percent by 2009, with authorities' long-standing attempts to rein in certain investment projects.

India is expected to see growth of 8.4 percent this year while other countries with expected high GDP are Vietnam (8.2 percent), Cambodia (8.0 percent), Laos (7.9 percent), Indonesia (6.3 percent) and the Philippines (6.2 percent).

In Thailand, where continuing political and policy uncertainties have significantly dampened business and consumer confidence, World Bank said the GDP was anticipated to grow by 4.6 percent in 2008, higher than the 4.3 percent in 2007 but still lower than the 5.0 percent in 2006.

The report said a projected slowdown in export growth from 17.8 percent in 2007 to 15.2 percent in 2008 echoed a softening in demand by countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) with United States imports increasing by a meagre 1.3 percent as well as second-round effects on intra-regional trade.

Substantial reform efforts in several countries of Asean should yield acceleration in activity through the forecast period, said World Bank which estimated growth among East Asian economies other than China to register 6.2 percent by 2009.

"Overall, we expect developing-country growth to moderate only somewhat over the next two years. However, a much sharper US slowdown is a real risk that could weaken medium-term prospects in developing countries," said Uri Dadush, director of the World Bank's Development Prospects Group and International Trade Department.

The report's authors assumed that credit turmoil in international markets would persist into late 2008, but that costs to large financial institutions will remain manageable.

Looking at trade, strong import demand across the developing countries is helping to sustain global growth, said Hans Timmer, co-author and manager of the Gobal Trends Team in the bank's Development Prospects Group.

"As a result and given a cheaper US dollar, American exports are expanding rapidly. This is helping shrink the US current account deficit and is contributing to a decline in global imbalances," he said.

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