09 April 2008
By Alain Ney
Cambodge Soir Hebdo
Translated from French by Luc Sâr
For the first time, the Cambodian government is giving out its outlook regarding the country’s GDP.
The government outlook on the country’s GDP appears in a report written by Hang Chuon Naron, the general secretary of the Ministry of Economy and Finance. During the past 10 years, the per capita GDP has doubled in Cambodia to reach $589 at the end of 2007. Because of the maintained economic growth in the last few years, the poverty index fell from 35% in 2004 to 31% in 2007 (see note below).
Nevertheless, even with $8.4 billion, the Cambodian GDP remains modest, but this index of the national wealth will keep on increasing. According to the projections included in Hang Chuon Naron’s report, the GDP should reach $1,000 per capita in 2015, and maybe more, if the oil and gaz revenues are accounted for.
All will depend on the economic growth rate in the country. If this rate still hovers around 10%, the GDP could reach $3,000 in 2028. On the other hand, if the economic growth rate drops to 7%, the GDP would only be $1,500 per capita in 2025.
Regarding the reliability of such long term prediction, it remains to be seen still. However, in 2008, The World bank predicts a growth rate of 7.5% in 2008, and 7% in 2009. But there again, the WB numbers are also predictions.
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KI-Media Note: The "national poverty line" in Cambodia is defined as $0.75 of income a day. The 31% of Cambodians identified above through our "national poverty index", are actually those who survive under a "starvation line" of $0.75 a day.
The government outlook on the country’s GDP appears in a report written by Hang Chuon Naron, the general secretary of the Ministry of Economy and Finance. During the past 10 years, the per capita GDP has doubled in Cambodia to reach $589 at the end of 2007. Because of the maintained economic growth in the last few years, the poverty index fell from 35% in 2004 to 31% in 2007 (see note below).
Nevertheless, even with $8.4 billion, the Cambodian GDP remains modest, but this index of the national wealth will keep on increasing. According to the projections included in Hang Chuon Naron’s report, the GDP should reach $1,000 per capita in 2015, and maybe more, if the oil and gaz revenues are accounted for.
All will depend on the economic growth rate in the country. If this rate still hovers around 10%, the GDP could reach $3,000 in 2028. On the other hand, if the economic growth rate drops to 7%, the GDP would only be $1,500 per capita in 2025.
Regarding the reliability of such long term prediction, it remains to be seen still. However, in 2008, The World bank predicts a growth rate of 7.5% in 2008, and 7% in 2009. But there again, the WB numbers are also predictions.
------------
KI-Media Note: The "national poverty line" in Cambodia is defined as $0.75 of income a day. The 31% of Cambodians identified above through our "national poverty index", are actually those who survive under a "starvation line" of $0.75 a day.
16 comments:
Great news indeed, the poverty is down by 4% in just 3 years, but it will get better yet. Just watch how fascinating the exponential function work. The next thing you know, poverty is no more in Cambodia, as though it disappears overnight.
Ah savage children vicious killer CPP (Hun Sen) must be stopped.
Cambodians people must be saved from his constant venomous assault.
This is really ashame for the society. I am glad that SRP refused to accept the medals. It shows that SRP is working for the coutry and genuinely solving people daily crisis.
It's mind bogling to know that ah Hog Lanny payroll is $375,000 per month, where >95% of the Khmer population make <$1.oo a day.
It's outrageous that the CPP & the family of Thieves don't even care who live or die! I HOPE AH HUN'S SON WILL KILL HIS DAD WHEN HE'S ASLEEP.
Come on, dude! It's just like father like son. It doesn't matter what degree Hun Maneth has. He's a son of a puppet'; therefore, he's as cheap as his father or even cheaper than his father.
From social equality point of view and the GINI index of Cambodia, the GDP per capita of $589 is very distorted and misleading! It's only a representative of a small group of well-off "persons", most of whom are in the city. KI media is correct about pointing out how many people are still starving for food, education and health care!
Development is not only about economics, but social factors and environmental sustainability. To quote John F. Kennedy, "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich."
In accordance with high growth, the gov't should focus on improving business climate because as you all maybe knew for the middle class if their want to joint the business club are required more spending on unofficial pay for official authority.
Improving Good Governance such as fighting against corruption will be benefit for sustainable growth. Further more we need to improve the infrastructure system for facilitate the flow of product.
The good development policy is needed and Cambodia should not mis this brighten window of growth.
Independent Economist, Phnom Penh
Hun Sen said: Akphiwaot.
Ak-phi-What? Ah pee What?
9:43, we are not American and we don't follow any J. F Monkey, alright?
Who is Hang Chuon Narong? The one who stole many millions dollars by installing illegtal telephone?
As I said it before there is no such a thing as "fighting corruption" in the government of the corrupted from the head! A disease that starts from the head cannot be cured. You might have to cut that head off.
Yeah, but how do you know it didn't start from down the feet?
The measures proposed by sam rainsy to fight against the rise in the cost of living are not valid.
Because sam rainsy who is always so bad in economy as in politics made a bad diagnosis of the economic problem.
Sam Rainsy proposes measures to fight punctually against the inflation which is the result of the economic overheating while the rise in prices of basic raw materials is the consequence of the world financial crisis, the speculation and the fall of American's dollars.
The effective solutions of this economic problem must be taken in dialogue and in coordination with all the countries concerned by the region ( asean ) to adopt a collective answer or solution.
The government of samdech Hun Sen can propose an initiative in this direction with his partners of the asean.
Cambodia has no time to waste. Cambodia is one of the lucky countries to be endowed with rich natural resources to help stimulate the economy. The government must take every step to ensure the economy will continue to grow even after the natural resources are all exploited. To rule a country they must take all the responsibility for the well being of the people in the country. If they cannot stand the heat, get out from the kitchen. After all it is the people who will be paying for it.
Only the blind or the cowtowing clowns of Hun Xen cannot see how the corruption in Cambodia has started.
Have you ever seen them kaking any responsibilies of what they have done so far? Come on, dude, open your eyes widely so you can see the fking fact better. If you cannot open your eyes, just hold on, I'll give you two toothpicks to stick your eyes at both sides open!!!!!
if this statistics number is currrent and correct, then the goal of any gov't of cambodia is to reduce this 31% to an even smaller and smaller number which eventually get it to less than 10% if not 0%.
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