By Kittipong Thavevong
The Nation
Public attention is firmly focused on the House of Representatives, which is set to vote today after three days of censure debate against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and seven Cabinet members.
All of the Cabinet members targeted in the no-confidence grilling are from the People Power Party (PPP), the largest coalition partner.
The outcome is predictable, however. All of the targets will be given a majority vote of approval. In fact, that has been the case throughout Thai political history.
Coalition parties are unlikely to vote against the targeted ministers, even though some of their MPs may complain about "unclear" or "insufficient" explanations offered by certain Cabinet members to the opposition's allegations.
It has been a long-held custom for MPs from coalition parties to vote in support of targeted Cabinet members. The worst thing they can do to particular ministers they really don't trust is to abstain, although it is a secret ballot.
Something more interesting is the consequence of the censure debate.
The prime minister is unlikely to resign his seat and dissolution of the House of Representatives is out of the question.
Samak would rather opt to change the line-up of his Cabinet, in order to mitigate damage done during the censure grilling.
At least two of those targeted in the opposition's censure motion are expected to be replaced in an imminent Cabinet shake-up. They are Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama and Deputy Premier and Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan.
Five other Cabinet seats are likely to be affected in a "major" reshuffle, according a source from the ruling PPP, who said the conclusion was arrived at during a discussion between the party's key figures and some banned executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party.
Outside of Parliament, the street rally by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is unlikely to be as forceful as before. Most of the issues it raised against the government have been discussed in Parliament.
The government's decision to allow two key parliamentary debates earlier this week - the Senate's general debate on Monday on the country's problems and the lower House's censure debate over the three following days - is like opening the valve to release some political pressure, although the move may have been viewed as too late to resolve the ongoing political crisis.
The controversy over Cambodia's Preah Vihear Temple appeared to draw a large amount of people to the PAD's rally before the censure debate. Many PAD supporters are convinced the foreign minister's recent communique with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An in support of that country's bid to register the temple ruins as a World Heritage site could cause Thailand to lose more territorial area around Preah Vihear.
The PAD can still use the Preah Vihear controversy as the main ammunition in its assault on the government as long as the foreign minister is allowed to remain in office.
The government needs to sacrifice him for its survival.
The PAD may come up with yet another big issue to attack the government but it is unlikely to be as effective as the Preah Vihear controversy, which has managed to fire up widespread nationalistic fervour.
There is no end in sight for the PAD rally outside of Government House. But as long as the government refrains from use of force with the protesters, its legitimacy is intact.
After a Cabinet shake-up, the government is likely to be left with no major headaches for some time - until it trips itself up again.
All of the Cabinet members targeted in the no-confidence grilling are from the People Power Party (PPP), the largest coalition partner.
The outcome is predictable, however. All of the targets will be given a majority vote of approval. In fact, that has been the case throughout Thai political history.
Coalition parties are unlikely to vote against the targeted ministers, even though some of their MPs may complain about "unclear" or "insufficient" explanations offered by certain Cabinet members to the opposition's allegations.
It has been a long-held custom for MPs from coalition parties to vote in support of targeted Cabinet members. The worst thing they can do to particular ministers they really don't trust is to abstain, although it is a secret ballot.
Something more interesting is the consequence of the censure debate.
The prime minister is unlikely to resign his seat and dissolution of the House of Representatives is out of the question.
Samak would rather opt to change the line-up of his Cabinet, in order to mitigate damage done during the censure grilling.
At least two of those targeted in the opposition's censure motion are expected to be replaced in an imminent Cabinet shake-up. They are Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama and Deputy Premier and Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan.
Five other Cabinet seats are likely to be affected in a "major" reshuffle, according a source from the ruling PPP, who said the conclusion was arrived at during a discussion between the party's key figures and some banned executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party.
Outside of Parliament, the street rally by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is unlikely to be as forceful as before. Most of the issues it raised against the government have been discussed in Parliament.
The government's decision to allow two key parliamentary debates earlier this week - the Senate's general debate on Monday on the country's problems and the lower House's censure debate over the three following days - is like opening the valve to release some political pressure, although the move may have been viewed as too late to resolve the ongoing political crisis.
The controversy over Cambodia's Preah Vihear Temple appeared to draw a large amount of people to the PAD's rally before the censure debate. Many PAD supporters are convinced the foreign minister's recent communique with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An in support of that country's bid to register the temple ruins as a World Heritage site could cause Thailand to lose more territorial area around Preah Vihear.
The PAD can still use the Preah Vihear controversy as the main ammunition in its assault on the government as long as the foreign minister is allowed to remain in office.
The government needs to sacrifice him for its survival.
The PAD may come up with yet another big issue to attack the government but it is unlikely to be as effective as the Preah Vihear controversy, which has managed to fire up widespread nationalistic fervour.
There is no end in sight for the PAD rally outside of Government House. But as long as the government refrains from use of force with the protesters, its legitimacy is intact.
After a Cabinet shake-up, the government is likely to be left with no major headaches for some time - until it trips itself up again.
2 comments:
Dear all this is Ah Siamese strategy They always played this tactic with Khmer and Hun Sen GV'T. The point is, as every Khmer have known Ah thieves nerver wanted Khmer to registering our Prasaat Preah Vihear to UNESCO, they wanted to steal it from us; therefore they feel that there is some cards letf for them to be played, so they continue to do it to hampering the process from progressing. What ever they did is for Ah Siamese interest; why Ah Siamese want to make friend with Khmer by pressing Hun Sen GV'T to share Khmerland with them?.?.?.?.Why PM Thaksin out of office???, Because he had a very god buseness dealt whit Mr.Hun Sen interior of Khmer territory!.-(this case Ah Siamese is Gaining land and busenesses),why Mr. Thaksin did not wanted to develop his fortune inside Siamese territory? since they have imense places, iselands compared to Cambodian!, because Ah Siamese using their cunny trick( it's not god for Siamese politically). -He has to use Khmer land is serving Siam interest(Just one shot got more than two, perhaps leading them to dominating those territories. This time Ah Siamese did repeated the same manouvre, they are all gain politic, economic and territorial. Khmer Nation who are the one shrinking land and sea, Khmer Nation who are loosing afterall. My Q? is this, why Hun Sen GV'T didn't go back to square one to restart negotiate with Ah Siamese GV'T whenever transition occuring?.?.?.????.
May god bless Khmer all!
but we all know that their statue of limitation expired since 10 years after the court ruling, let alone 46 or so years now. i wouldn't be surprise if the world court refuses to even listen to their unlawful and unprofessional and unethical excuses. the rule of law rules supreme in this day and age as the world is not in the dark ages anymore, and cambodia is no exception. god bless cambodia.
ps: the pad is wrong when they said that they can complain when there are new evidence or whatever. well, let me tell you pad thugs this, according to what i read and understood the law and policy of the world court decision was that the court did give thailand 10 years to come up with new evidence and now it's 46 years and they want to tell the court that they disagree. yeah, right!! good luck, pad thugs! nothing new, is there? god bless cambodia.
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