A man throws debris towards riot policemen after they fired tear gas towards anti-government demonstrators outside Parliament in Bangkok on October 7, 2008. REUTERS/Kerek WongsaWed Oct 8, 2008
By Ed Cropley - Analysis
BANGKOK (Reuters) - The struggle for control of Thailand gets uglier with each round of street violence, but three years after the foes of then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra took up the fight, there is still no sign of a winner.
The only thing analysts agree is that the strife, which has meandered from street protests in late 2005 to a military coup to elections and back to street protests, is likely to drag on for months, if not years, and will not end happily.
Such a forecast bodes ill for investors and the economy, which is likely to remain rudderless at a time of slowing export growth, with government more focused on survival than staving off the effects of the global financial crisis.
Throughout, the conflict's basic structure has not changed.
On one side is Thaksin, a super-rich businessman from the north who redrew the political map by courting rural voters to gain an unassailable mandate that he then used to advance the interests of major companies, including many of his own.
On the other are the traditional elites threatened by his meteoric rise after the 1997 Asian crisis -- mainly the military, monarchy and bureaucracy, but also the unions, academics who saw Thaksin as a corrupt rights abuser, and the urban middle-class who resented their taxes being used as his political war chest.
Each of these finds a voice in the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the street movement that has occupied the prime minister's compound since August and which laid siege to parliament and fought running battles with police on Tuesday.
Behind its round-the-clock railing against Thaksin and his brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, the current Prime Minister, the PAD's aim is to rewrite the constitution under the banner of "new politics" to reduce the clout of the rural vote.
"They are not opposed to just individuals any more. They are opposed to the entire system of one man, one vote," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University said. "That's the bottom line. It's a sophisticated, protracted power grab."
WHO'S IN CHARGE?
Whether they pull it off remains to be seen.
Even if Somchai's days are numbered, as most analysts agree they are, and even if his party is dissolved for electoral fraud, as most analysts agree it will be, the fact remains that rural voters will always return another broadly pro-Thaksin government.
And as long as the PAD refuses to accept election results it does not like, the ballot box will only defer the crisis, rather than end it, said political analyst Giles Ungphakorn.
"I can't see this being solved very quickly because the PAD are certainly never going to compromise," he said. "But the government can't just give in. They also feel they have the backing of the electorate.
"It's a very strange situation whereby the police, military intelligence, all sorts of people, don't know what to do. They don't know who's going to be the master," he said.
The PAD's main tactic appears to be create anarchy in Bangkok to the point that it triggers extra-constitutional intervention either by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej or the military.
Chastened by its wretched performance after the 2006 coup and well aware of the enormity of Thailand's social rift, the army is loathe to march into politics again and has repeatedly stressed its neutrality.
KING "IN THE MIDDLE"
Which leaves the king -- officially above politics but who by his own admission has been "in the middle, and working in every field" during his 62 years on the throne.
It is hard to know exactly how supportive he is of the PAD, but the movement constantly invokes the royal family, in particular Queen Sirikit, who is venerated in a huge shrine at the gates to its Government House protest headquarters.
"We, ladies and gentlemen, are the musketeers of the king and queen," PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkul told supporters on Tuesday, trumpeting a 100,000 baht ($2,900) donation from the queen to injured protesters as evidence of her explicit backing.
Yet the PAD could be playing with fire by sucking the royal family into a high-stakes political fight at a critical juncture for the Chakri dynasty -- the twilight of the reign of Bhumibol, now 80 years old and in declining health.
Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn's skills as a behind-the-scenes political arbiter are untested, and he will struggle to earn the respect accorded his father, seen as semi-divine by many.
"What happens after the current king leaves the scene could be the most wrenching crisis yet," Thitinan said in a paper to be published this week in the U.S.-based Journal of Democracy.
"All bets are off when the current royal twilight finally fades to full darkness."
(Editing by Darren Schuettler and David Fox)
The only thing analysts agree is that the strife, which has meandered from street protests in late 2005 to a military coup to elections and back to street protests, is likely to drag on for months, if not years, and will not end happily.
Such a forecast bodes ill for investors and the economy, which is likely to remain rudderless at a time of slowing export growth, with government more focused on survival than staving off the effects of the global financial crisis.
Throughout, the conflict's basic structure has not changed.
On one side is Thaksin, a super-rich businessman from the north who redrew the political map by courting rural voters to gain an unassailable mandate that he then used to advance the interests of major companies, including many of his own.
On the other are the traditional elites threatened by his meteoric rise after the 1997 Asian crisis -- mainly the military, monarchy and bureaucracy, but also the unions, academics who saw Thaksin as a corrupt rights abuser, and the urban middle-class who resented their taxes being used as his political war chest.
Each of these finds a voice in the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the street movement that has occupied the prime minister's compound since August and which laid siege to parliament and fought running battles with police on Tuesday.
Behind its round-the-clock railing against Thaksin and his brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, the current Prime Minister, the PAD's aim is to rewrite the constitution under the banner of "new politics" to reduce the clout of the rural vote.
"They are not opposed to just individuals any more. They are opposed to the entire system of one man, one vote," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University said. "That's the bottom line. It's a sophisticated, protracted power grab."
WHO'S IN CHARGE?
Whether they pull it off remains to be seen.
Even if Somchai's days are numbered, as most analysts agree they are, and even if his party is dissolved for electoral fraud, as most analysts agree it will be, the fact remains that rural voters will always return another broadly pro-Thaksin government.
And as long as the PAD refuses to accept election results it does not like, the ballot box will only defer the crisis, rather than end it, said political analyst Giles Ungphakorn.
"I can't see this being solved very quickly because the PAD are certainly never going to compromise," he said. "But the government can't just give in. They also feel they have the backing of the electorate.
"It's a very strange situation whereby the police, military intelligence, all sorts of people, don't know what to do. They don't know who's going to be the master," he said.
The PAD's main tactic appears to be create anarchy in Bangkok to the point that it triggers extra-constitutional intervention either by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej or the military.
Chastened by its wretched performance after the 2006 coup and well aware of the enormity of Thailand's social rift, the army is loathe to march into politics again and has repeatedly stressed its neutrality.
KING "IN THE MIDDLE"
Which leaves the king -- officially above politics but who by his own admission has been "in the middle, and working in every field" during his 62 years on the throne.
It is hard to know exactly how supportive he is of the PAD, but the movement constantly invokes the royal family, in particular Queen Sirikit, who is venerated in a huge shrine at the gates to its Government House protest headquarters.
"We, ladies and gentlemen, are the musketeers of the king and queen," PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkul told supporters on Tuesday, trumpeting a 100,000 baht ($2,900) donation from the queen to injured protesters as evidence of her explicit backing.
Yet the PAD could be playing with fire by sucking the royal family into a high-stakes political fight at a critical juncture for the Chakri dynasty -- the twilight of the reign of Bhumibol, now 80 years old and in declining health.
Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn's skills as a behind-the-scenes political arbiter are untested, and he will struggle to earn the respect accorded his father, seen as semi-divine by many.
"What happens after the current king leaves the scene could be the most wrenching crisis yet," Thitinan said in a paper to be published this week in the U.S.-based Journal of Democracy.
"All bets are off when the current royal twilight finally fades to full darkness."
(Editing by Darren Schuettler and David Fox)
14 comments:
This is the end of a dynasty. Rest in Piss Thailand.
This crisis is truely had a bad affect to ASEAN meeting late this year despite Thai government claimed NO PROBLEM may times as Hun Sen had raised this issue last month.
they're making fun of cambodian soldiers wearing improper uniform. look at them, they are fighting against their authority like cat and mouse game! their gov't is so weak because they don't want to control their unruly pad thugs gangsters!
This may be the end of Thai Chackri Dynasty when the current king is dead. Although, they have have the new king but it is not respect by many people.
If it is true, Khmer is not bad at all. We had king, then no king, then we have king. We, khmer, have strugled through good time and bad time where as thai never go through a hardship, they just watch how khmer live though tough time. We have experience which will make us better in the future. If we don't have king, so what.
If Thai don't have king, their politicians will fight for number 1 position, prime minister, as they have been doing for the past decades throughout thai history. The only thing that keep them in tack is the king, because they respect their king and do as the king say, right or wrong no question ask. By saying so when this king die, the new king will not likely be respectfull as his father; therefore, the country will go chaos. The southern portion of Thailand will suffer greatly from the muslim population, and if they keep on enrouching on Cambodia, they will not have peace with Cambodia. And for sure, they will never have peace or be friendly to Myanma. The only country Thailand may be friend with is LAO but if Thai give LAO attitude, then may be Thailand will cease to exist from Southeast Asia, because Myanma, Cambodia, and Lao could consume Thailand very easy and US will not stand in the way for Thailand. I'm waiting for that bay.
For all khmer people, for the time being please send your kids to school for higher education. This is the only way for those in control to listen to you.
that's BAD KARMA for A-Siem!
yes, education is the key in a modern, developed nation of cambodia to be, coming soon near you! study everything and know everything! god bless cambodia.
Off topic 9:15am. And for 9:48am comment, American will back Thai government but China will dominant the Southeast Asia, nevertheless. Down the Thai and Viet.
All your comments are true. They should experience this too.
too good to be true. but strategically siam got what they evil-planned! Encroaching and claiming everything at least theirs... you expect joint venture compromised by the khmer gov.t and in 100 years later when khmer gov.t is as this brainless short-sighted leading by such low educated leaders and all those areas will be claimed theirs...
I heard about rumors that Bhumibol will die soon. He is on the brink of heart failure.
Down Bak Thai!!!
Khmer Glory will rise once again.
Khmer PP,
6:13 PM
No, you heard it wrong!
That was Hun Sen who has a heart failure, and he'll die soon.
It is about time, Thailand. You have been enjoying non-war life for so long, while your neighbours were suffering from war. I just can't wait to see your PM coming to Cambodia on Monday next week how and what he is going to pretend that nothing happend in his own country.
Their politicians were happily doing dirty business with warring countries, because there was no competition. They had a free ride. Not any more...! Now there are strong competitions from its neighbours, and it seems Thai politicians begin blaming each other for not being successful as previously.
Me too,
I heard the gay Thai's king Bhumibol is going to die very soon.
I heard about the prediction that Thailand will be in chaos for the rest of their life. And they will lost alot of lands. Khmer will take or reclaim their lands back.
Wow, Mighty Khmer is return!
Khmer Kandal,
I will have to clap my hands if Bhomibol die. The sooner he's going to die the better for Thailand to go down to hell.
Khmer will not wait to conquer the Thai. Khmer in Thailand ready to revolt once he's dead.
Khmer in Thailand,
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