Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation (Thailand)
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen may have begun beating the war drums too early this week when he issued an ultimatum to Thailand that he would use force to resolve the border dispute at Preah Vihear, but he had reasons for doing so.
In fact, no one believed he would really order his troops to open fire, but an ultimatum like that needs to be thoroughly examined for its hidden meanings.
Some analysts read too much into it when they linked Hun Sen’s move with deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The machiavellian scenario they suggested was that the Cambodian strongman wanted to help his associate Thaksin – and Thaksin ’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, the present Thai prime minister – to overcome Thailand’s domestic political difficulties.
The move,they said,was intended to divert attention from domestic political chaos by renewing external problems, and even hostilities,with Cambodia.
But the analytical framework was too complicated and misinterpreted the clear picture of Thai-Cambodian relations.
Moreover, Somchai’s government is too weak to generate external interest in its domestic problems.The present Cabinet would probably be unable to mobilise sufficient resources to wage war against Cambodia, and rather than finding support among Thais, Somchai may easily be accused of dragging the country into war. So the threat could worsen his situation rather than help it.
The rattling of Hun Sen’s saber was not intended to achieve a military goal, but rather was a back-up manoeuvre for diplomatic moves to achieve his development objectives.
The Cambodian government put a lot of effort into the listing of the Hindu temple of Preah Vihear as a World Heritage site.
The Khmer sanctuary was expected to welcome a fresh surge of visitors after Unesco accepted it for listing earlier this year. Other World Heritage sites have enjoyed an immediate boost in tourism, but the listing of Preah Vihear has brought Cambodia no more than a bitter row with Thailand,on whose border the revered ruin sits.
The site has been closed since the listing and has not earned Cambodia one single tourist dollar.
In 1962 the International Court of Justice ruled Preah Vihear belonged to Cambodia, but easy access can only be made from Thailand. Phnom Penh needs space to build its own route to the temple, but unfortunately the area it needs is also claimed by Thailand.
Military occupation will not secure the area permanently. Only precise demarcation of the boundary between the two countries can divide the two sides,and that requires advanced technology and negotiations.
The two countries have not sat down for talks about their common border at Preah Vihear for some time, because of internal political difficulties.
For many reasons,Thailand remains unable to activate the Joint Commission on Demarcation of Land Boundaries (JBC).
The present Constitution requires the foreign ministry to obtain a parliamentary mandate before commencing negotiations on boundaries.
The ministry has already submitted the framework of negotiation to the parliament, but parliamentarians have hardly been in the mood to read it.This week ’s session of the House of Representatives was postponed following the recent bloodshed.
The JBC is normally co-chaired by a deputy foreign minister,but foreign minister Sompong Amornwiwat has no deputy. He must assign one of his advisers to the job and told his Cambodian counterpart Hor Namhong on Monday that he would name a Thai co-chairman within a few weeks.
Hun Sen cannot wait that long, because his government is required to submit an administrative plan for Preah Vihear to the World Heritage Committee by next February. The plan cannot be completed as long as the boundary between Thailand and Cambodia remains a hotly contested issue.
Hun Sen ’s threatening tactics seem to have worked well.
Thailand, although responding with strong words and assurances of retaliation in the case of attack, urged Phnom Penh to calm down and continue with talks.The Cambodian leader will be happy to see Thailand ’s new eagerness to talk and reactivate the JBC.
In fact, no one believed he would really order his troops to open fire, but an ultimatum like that needs to be thoroughly examined for its hidden meanings.
Some analysts read too much into it when they linked Hun Sen’s move with deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The machiavellian scenario they suggested was that the Cambodian strongman wanted to help his associate Thaksin – and Thaksin ’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, the present Thai prime minister – to overcome Thailand’s domestic political difficulties.
The move,they said,was intended to divert attention from domestic political chaos by renewing external problems, and even hostilities,with Cambodia.
But the analytical framework was too complicated and misinterpreted the clear picture of Thai-Cambodian relations.
Moreover, Somchai’s government is too weak to generate external interest in its domestic problems.The present Cabinet would probably be unable to mobilise sufficient resources to wage war against Cambodia, and rather than finding support among Thais, Somchai may easily be accused of dragging the country into war. So the threat could worsen his situation rather than help it.
The rattling of Hun Sen’s saber was not intended to achieve a military goal, but rather was a back-up manoeuvre for diplomatic moves to achieve his development objectives.
The Cambodian government put a lot of effort into the listing of the Hindu temple of Preah Vihear as a World Heritage site.
The Khmer sanctuary was expected to welcome a fresh surge of visitors after Unesco accepted it for listing earlier this year. Other World Heritage sites have enjoyed an immediate boost in tourism, but the listing of Preah Vihear has brought Cambodia no more than a bitter row with Thailand,on whose border the revered ruin sits.
The site has been closed since the listing and has not earned Cambodia one single tourist dollar.
In 1962 the International Court of Justice ruled Preah Vihear belonged to Cambodia, but easy access can only be made from Thailand. Phnom Penh needs space to build its own route to the temple, but unfortunately the area it needs is also claimed by Thailand.
Military occupation will not secure the area permanently. Only precise demarcation of the boundary between the two countries can divide the two sides,and that requires advanced technology and negotiations.
The two countries have not sat down for talks about their common border at Preah Vihear for some time, because of internal political difficulties.
For many reasons,Thailand remains unable to activate the Joint Commission on Demarcation of Land Boundaries (JBC).
The present Constitution requires the foreign ministry to obtain a parliamentary mandate before commencing negotiations on boundaries.
The ministry has already submitted the framework of negotiation to the parliament, but parliamentarians have hardly been in the mood to read it.This week ’s session of the House of Representatives was postponed following the recent bloodshed.
The JBC is normally co-chaired by a deputy foreign minister,but foreign minister Sompong Amornwiwat has no deputy. He must assign one of his advisers to the job and told his Cambodian counterpart Hor Namhong on Monday that he would name a Thai co-chairman within a few weeks.
Hun Sen cannot wait that long, because his government is required to submit an administrative plan for Preah Vihear to the World Heritage Committee by next February. The plan cannot be completed as long as the boundary between Thailand and Cambodia remains a hotly contested issue.
Hun Sen ’s threatening tactics seem to have worked well.
Thailand, although responding with strong words and assurances of retaliation in the case of attack, urged Phnom Penh to calm down and continue with talks.The Cambodian leader will be happy to see Thailand ’s new eagerness to talk and reactivate the JBC.
12 comments:
Cambodia leaders should focus on two out of the major objectives in dealing with Thailand.
1. Bring this border conflict to the international communities for a resolution, not resolving this issue by bilateral
2. Focus, in the lon-run, on building a Great Wall of Cambodia along the 800 km border with Thailand. Plus, Building a Khmer National Highway a long the boder, which serves as a permanant fixture, provides both border protection and economic and social development a long the border in a future to come.
I call upon our Khmer leaders to think about this strategy, which is a win-win situation.
10:31 AM, idiot, you think you are cleverer than khmer leaders. You propose is what most of Cambodians know. But the reality is not that easy,idiot. Don't speak as you are cleverer than others.
To The Nation:
Contrary to your assumption of Hun Sen's hidden agendas, it was Thai that started the whole conflict. It started with protesters of PAD using Preah Vihear as their scapegoate to enraged the Thai people and use momentum fo nationalism atmoshper to serve their objective, which is to put PAD leaders in the Thai's government. Don't make it seems that the conflict started by Cambodia to serve Cambodia's purpose. If it weren't for the protesters that moved across the border and Thai soldiers standing inside the Prea Vihear temple, we would not be at this stage of unfriendliness. Among many provinces and islands, Surin province used to be Khmer. Thai has been taking so much land from Cambodia, now Thai wants more and more. From this evidence, who is the aggressor and who is the victim?
10:37am
Why you so mad at 10:31am. It's only suggestion ideas. The message is not imply that is the best and perfect solution.
Please help sign a petition for Khmer Kampuchea Krom
http://www.khmerkromngo.org/petition.htm
Oh well! The Thai like to use excuse after excuse to postpone bilateral talk with Cambodia and at the same time they continue to send more Thai troop to occupy Cambodian territories!
Whatever happens in Thailand is Thai's problem not Cambodian problem! So for the Thai leaders to occupy Cambodian territories and blame it on Thai domestic problem and it just doesn't make any sense at all! Cambodian leaders can not be held hostage to Thai domestic problem because for Cambodian leaders it has become international problem which is dealing with the UN, the World Court, and the third parties! So for the Thai leaders continue to attach Cambodia-Thailand border conflict to Thai domestic problem is one way to undermine all the progress made by Cambodian leaders in trying to find resolution to border conflict through peaceful bilateral talk! Cambodia had three bilateral talks with Thailand which only promote more Thailand naked aggression on Cambodia! Is this all the Thai leaders have is to use more excuse to prolong the Cambodia-Thai border conflict?
Our Prime Minister Hun Sen never did use any threatening tactics because it is him who insisted on ending the border conflict through peaceful bilateral talk since the beginning of the border conflict but the Thai leaders behave so arrogant and act so belligerence and they continue to send more Thai troop to occupy Cambodian territories. So now our Prime Minister Hun Sen is only doing the thing that the Thai leaders understand and know best and that is to behave arrogant and act in belligerence manner the same way as the Thai leaders!
The siem has immense imagination. Where did they get all this.
according to radio france 2 of siam troop are die, and 70 injure. dont fuck with khmer army you siam shit, i know you got all kind of weapon,but dont have no heart to fight.
Wow who puts this kind of rhetoric news on here? The Nation Newspaper speaks of his or her personnal views on both side with no real sources. I can come up with some too. Like Thai Government wanting to pick a fight with its weak neighbor for political support. For Cambodia, Hun Sen is an ex Khmer Rouge who don`t like to be punked. There my own personnal view!
To the Nation editor,
Your Commentary is so sweet that I almost forget that you are Thai trying to fish in troubled water.
You, Thais, have a lot of slandering media. Stop cheating the world. Tiger never changes its stripes or color.
You, Thais, are the Wolf in Sheep's clothing. Living by stealing, robbing...
Stop, Stop cheating.
I believe all the siam news were not telling the truth. so there is no need to post it in here.
Hun Sen spoke out of school, period. He can talk smack all day about SRP or HRP, but when he makes insane threats like this Thailand they will not stand for the loss of face. I am sure he regrets saying it out loud. Maybe he can kill another journalist and say he was misquoted for the millionth time. The arrogance, stupidity, and chest thumping might just catch up with the Khmer Monkeys this time.
Post a Comment