Thailand, Cambodia: A Convenient Border Dispute Flares Up

October 15, 2008
Stratfor

"Somchai’s administration is on the verge of dissolution, and his decision to return troops to the Preah Vihear Temple might be an attempt to salvage what is left of his authority by stirring up popular anti-Cambodian feeling (and distracting the public’s attention from his government)"

Thai and Cambodian troops exchanged gunfire Oct. 15 near a Hindu temple on a disputed section of their border that has been the focus of tensions and small troop buildups since July. Violence seems to have escalated from previous incidents, with reports of rockets fired from the Thai side and nearby civilians evacuating. Two Cambodians were killed in the fighting and 20 Thai troops were taken prisoner, Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong said.

Stratfor sources indicate that while fighting has stopped and accusations between Thai and Cambodian authorities are now being exchanged, the potential for serious armed conflict remains high. Thailand’s new Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is seeking to take advantage of the situation to drum up support for his ailing government.

Thailand massed troops at the border to face down Cambodian troops in July and August, but nothing came of the standoff, which appeared mostly to be political theatrics from both sides. The nationalistic mood helped generate support for both governments while Thailand’s weakened then-Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej was facing protracted protests from the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), and Cambodia’s ruler Hun Sen was approaching an election. The rival armies withdrew after the Cambodian election in accordance with a backroom deal.

But the political situation in Thailand remains tumultuous, with the PAD staging demonstrations to oust Somchai in the same way it ousted Samak in September. Somchai struck out against the protesters Oct. 7, when four people died in a clash after police dispersed a crowd with tear gas. The police crackdown has severely weakened Somchai’s administration, with political moderates and even the revered queen sympathizing with the PAD for being treated harshly.

Somchai’s administration is on the verge of dissolution, and his decision to return troops to the Preah Vihear Temple might be an attempt to salvage what is left of his authority by stirring up popular anti-Cambodian feeling (and distracting the public’s attention from his government). Since about 500 Thai soldiers returned to the area, skirmishes on Oct. 3 and Oct. 4 have claimed the lives of four Cambodian soldiers.

Somchai’s government is extremely fragile and could continue to provoke military tensions at the border. And Cambodia requires little provocation, as its government also benefits from public reaction to the border dispute.