Friday December 19, 2008
PAVIN CHATCHAVALPONGPUN
Bangkok Post
He is smart, suave, even posh, as a leader. At the same time, he is perceived as being bland and inexperienced as a politician. Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democrat party, is Thailand's 27th prime minister at a time when Thailand seems to have slipped further into a political coma.
There will be no honeymoon period for the new prime minister. Restoring confidence in the economy, stamping his authority on the fragile coalition, and healing the deeply divided Thai society will be Mr Abhisit's burning issues.
Since Thailand has been so preoccupied with the escalating political violence at home, its foreign policy has been overlooked. Since the military coup of September 2006, the Foreign Ministry has been so busy with having to explain Thailand's political situation to the world that it has been difficult to plan a long-term strategy in the domain of foreign affairs.
Can Mr Abhisit change this?
During Mr Abhisit's visit to Singapore on August 17, 2005 as leader of the opposition party, he delivered a speech to a group of Singaporean academics and diplomats. His eloquent use of English was impressive, as well as his vision on how he would situate Thailand at the centre of regional gravity if he became prime minister, one day.
That day has finally come. PM Abhisit has already talked about reviving an active foreign policy, which, to him, has been in hibernation for too long. He pledged to host the Asean summit much earlier than scheduled, probably in February.
Abhisit is likely to reinstate Asean as the cornerstone of Thai foreign policy, a real departure from the Thaksin era. Judging from his party's record, democracy and respect of human rights will be a prominent part in its foreign policy platform. The two traits have long been trademarks of the Democrat party.
Can Abhisit learn something from Thaksin Shinawatra's past foreign policy? While in power from 2001 to 2006, Thaksin personalised Thai foreign policy, turning it into an active machine for the attainment of national interest. It also served his domestic agenda well: taking advantage of globalisation in order to feed the economic needs of local Thais.
To sustain the ambition, Thaksin launched a series of grandiose foreign policy initiatives. The Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) and the Ayawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) responded to Thaksin's call for transforming Thailand into a regional hegemon. The baht zone was established. Cultural diplomacy was exercised. In the meantime, he exploited the notion of nationalism at home, injecting it into his foreign policy. Remember when he declared Thai economic independence from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2003?
But were national interests the only objective of Thaksin? During his tenure, Thailand granted a 600-million-baht soft loan package to Burma to help upgrade its telecommunications. Miraculously, Thaksin's Shin Satellite won all the concessions. The company was offered the rights to be the only supplier for a satellite system in Burma. The line between national and private interests in this particular period was obscured, so was the face of Thai foreign policy.
PM Abhisit is standing at the crossroads in terms of Thailand's relations with its neighbours. Principle or profit? What will the new PM choose?
Judging from what the Democrats did in the past, it is not likely Thailand will walk the road paved by Thaksin. If the Democrat's "Flexible Engagement" policy can be rekindled, it will allow Thailand to voice concern over its neighbours' problems that may produce spill-over effects on the country.
But again, this could lead Thailand to face an intense reaction from Burma's brutal regime. From 1997-2001, the Chuan government's harsh stance vis-a-vis Rangoon caused bilateral relations to seriously deteriorate.
Also, Thailand's current friction with Cambodia over Preah Vihear, fuelled by a new surge in Thai nationalism, will challenge Mr Abhisit's leadership skills. Personal ties will only help to a certain extent. The friendliness between Thaksin and Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen meant nothing when the foundations of bilateral relations were shaky. Remember, the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh was burned to the ground in 2003.
Mr Abhisit will also be tasked with fixing certain diplomatic missteps caused by the Thaksin administration. Asean has to be given first priority by the new government. If Thailand fails to lead this regional organisation, its reputation on the international stage will be tarnished.
Can Abhisit take one more step up the ladder and become a regional leader?
Thaksin was once tipped to become Asia's next leader at the time when other charismatic leaders in the region had left the scene.
The former PM has never given up this ambition, even now that he has lost power. He recently set up a foundation called "Building a Better Future Foundation" to recruit Asia's rising stars to tackle the economic crisis in the region and confront other pressing issues faced by developing nations.
Mr Abhisit has shown so far that he understands the world rather well. His global vision has been shaped by his long years in England. He expresses comfort in speaking to the foreign media. It is therefore possible that Mr Abhisit will emerge as one of a new breed of regional leaders who are young, energetic and who respect the limits and constraints of his own country.
But it will be a long road for Mr Abhisit to demonstrate his ability in the handling of the kingdom's diplomacy, an art that has been crafted by ingenious monarchs in the past. The first step for him is to rebuild confidence and credibility in the kingdom in the eyes of the world. And he has to do this sooner than later.
Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
There will be no honeymoon period for the new prime minister. Restoring confidence in the economy, stamping his authority on the fragile coalition, and healing the deeply divided Thai society will be Mr Abhisit's burning issues.
Since Thailand has been so preoccupied with the escalating political violence at home, its foreign policy has been overlooked. Since the military coup of September 2006, the Foreign Ministry has been so busy with having to explain Thailand's political situation to the world that it has been difficult to plan a long-term strategy in the domain of foreign affairs.
Can Mr Abhisit change this?
During Mr Abhisit's visit to Singapore on August 17, 2005 as leader of the opposition party, he delivered a speech to a group of Singaporean academics and diplomats. His eloquent use of English was impressive, as well as his vision on how he would situate Thailand at the centre of regional gravity if he became prime minister, one day.
That day has finally come. PM Abhisit has already talked about reviving an active foreign policy, which, to him, has been in hibernation for too long. He pledged to host the Asean summit much earlier than scheduled, probably in February.
Abhisit is likely to reinstate Asean as the cornerstone of Thai foreign policy, a real departure from the Thaksin era. Judging from his party's record, democracy and respect of human rights will be a prominent part in its foreign policy platform. The two traits have long been trademarks of the Democrat party.
Can Abhisit learn something from Thaksin Shinawatra's past foreign policy? While in power from 2001 to 2006, Thaksin personalised Thai foreign policy, turning it into an active machine for the attainment of national interest. It also served his domestic agenda well: taking advantage of globalisation in order to feed the economic needs of local Thais.
To sustain the ambition, Thaksin launched a series of grandiose foreign policy initiatives. The Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) and the Ayawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) responded to Thaksin's call for transforming Thailand into a regional hegemon. The baht zone was established. Cultural diplomacy was exercised. In the meantime, he exploited the notion of nationalism at home, injecting it into his foreign policy. Remember when he declared Thai economic independence from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2003?
But were national interests the only objective of Thaksin? During his tenure, Thailand granted a 600-million-baht soft loan package to Burma to help upgrade its telecommunications. Miraculously, Thaksin's Shin Satellite won all the concessions. The company was offered the rights to be the only supplier for a satellite system in Burma. The line between national and private interests in this particular period was obscured, so was the face of Thai foreign policy.
PM Abhisit is standing at the crossroads in terms of Thailand's relations with its neighbours. Principle or profit? What will the new PM choose?
Judging from what the Democrats did in the past, it is not likely Thailand will walk the road paved by Thaksin. If the Democrat's "Flexible Engagement" policy can be rekindled, it will allow Thailand to voice concern over its neighbours' problems that may produce spill-over effects on the country.
But again, this could lead Thailand to face an intense reaction from Burma's brutal regime. From 1997-2001, the Chuan government's harsh stance vis-a-vis Rangoon caused bilateral relations to seriously deteriorate.
Also, Thailand's current friction with Cambodia over Preah Vihear, fuelled by a new surge in Thai nationalism, will challenge Mr Abhisit's leadership skills. Personal ties will only help to a certain extent. The friendliness between Thaksin and Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen meant nothing when the foundations of bilateral relations were shaky. Remember, the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh was burned to the ground in 2003.
Mr Abhisit will also be tasked with fixing certain diplomatic missteps caused by the Thaksin administration. Asean has to be given first priority by the new government. If Thailand fails to lead this regional organisation, its reputation on the international stage will be tarnished.
Can Abhisit take one more step up the ladder and become a regional leader?
Thaksin was once tipped to become Asia's next leader at the time when other charismatic leaders in the region had left the scene.
The former PM has never given up this ambition, even now that he has lost power. He recently set up a foundation called "Building a Better Future Foundation" to recruit Asia's rising stars to tackle the economic crisis in the region and confront other pressing issues faced by developing nations.
Mr Abhisit has shown so far that he understands the world rather well. His global vision has been shaped by his long years in England. He expresses comfort in speaking to the foreign media. It is therefore possible that Mr Abhisit will emerge as one of a new breed of regional leaders who are young, energetic and who respect the limits and constraints of his own country.
But it will be a long road for Mr Abhisit to demonstrate his ability in the handling of the kingdom's diplomacy, an art that has been crafted by ingenious monarchs in the past. The first step for him is to rebuild confidence and credibility in the kingdom in the eyes of the world. And he has to do this sooner than later.
Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
6 comments:
correction of fact
...Remember, the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh was burned to the ground in 2003...
Thai Embassy was not burned to the ground in 2003 as stated by Dr. Chatchavalpongpun. Only few of the offices were burned. The building remain intag.
It would be more creditable, if Dr. Chatchavalpongpun visits the embassy for himself instead of hearing from others.
Abhisit maybe smart in his fields of studies but when it comes to leading a government and solving social issues and regional conflicts with thai's neighbour, ie Cambodia there is no course at university for such thing.....Abhisit will face what the Thaksin camp faced when Pumibol dies.....he's lucky he's got the army and king behind him....the Thaksin camp won't let him off lightly....
cont...10:10am
Dr.Chatchavalpongpun only creates more hostility between Cambodia and Thailand by exaggerating the fact.
Cambodia always consider Thailand as good friend and neighbor. Cambodia government has been extremly patient and coopertive over the Vihear Temple and border issues.Cambodia governement wants to maintain a good relationship with the Thai government and people.
Phra Viharn belongs to Khmer on the mountain. Ah monkeys from Cambodia has no business up there.
1:28 shut the fuck up thai fag
the way i see it is that thailand is envious of changes in cambodia. of course, thailand likes to see cambodia as poor, weak, uneducated, etc... that, we all know that cambodia has changed a lot now , thus, thailand views us as threaten. go figure!
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