Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Thai court dissolves ruling party, PM banned

Tuesday December 2, 2008
By NIRMAL GHOSH
ANN/ The Straits Times (Singapore)


BANGKOK: Thailand’s Constitutional Court on Tuesday disbanded the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP) leading to the dissolution of Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat’s government.

The court also banned PPP’s executive board members, including Somchai, from politics for five years.

It further ruled to dissolve Chart Thai Party, imposing the same ban on its executive board members for five years.

On Monday, Thai police had asked the military to help step up security in the capital, fearing that pro-government supporters would react violently should the PPP be declared illegal for electoral fraud in last year’s polls.

Already, anti-government protesters in Bangkok have come under attack in recent days. Pro-government “red-shirts” are said to be prepared to head for the capital from the provinces in their thousands once the signal is given.

The court verdict may prove a turning point in a country roiled by months of political turmoil.

The conflict pits the yellow-shirted members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) against Somchai and his government, seen by them as corrupt proxies of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

In their campaign to bring down the government, the PAD’s supporters seized the Prime Minister’s official compound in Bangkok in August and, last week, took over both Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports.

The airport seizures have stranded over 350,000 travellers in Thailand. Various airlines and governments were scrambling Monday to deploy more flights to Phuket, Chiang Mai and U-Tapao to get them out.

Meanwhile, in a switch of tactics, the PAD moved most of its supporters at Government House to the airports on Monday.

“We are not abandoning the site,” PAD spokesman Suriyasai Katasila insisted. By evening, hundreds were still ensconced in the compound.

As all sides braced themselves for the court decision, senior members of the PPP were said to be urgently considering alternatives should the party be thrown out of power.

Already its members are describing a dissolution of the party as a “judicial coup.” The judgment could come within days, if not Tuesday itself.

One option is for the PPP itself to dissolve Parliament before the judgment is out, and to call an election -- which it is sure to win.

In this scenario, its MPs would merely switch to another party, Puea Thai, and fight the election.

Another option is for the PPP to set up a “government in exile” and create a resistance movement nationwide, should there be a military coup.

The mechanics for this are being worked on right now, but the idea is not new: It was considered but not implemented in September 2006 when the army toppled the Thaksin government.

It is not clear where such a “government in exile” would be based, but Thaksin is said to be in Cambodia while also working on setting up a base in Dubai.

Somchai, who was asked by reporters Monday when he would return to Bangkok, remarked that he could run the country from anywhere.

“The place is not an issue as long as I can work and get cooperation from all parties,” he added, insisting that he was not stepping down.

For the moment, Chiang Mai is his base as the northern city is home ground for him -- and Thaksin -- making it harder for the army to detain him in the event of a coup.

The political upheaval has also disrupted plans for Asean meetings from December 13 to 17.

“I will propose at the Cabinet meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) to postpone the summit to March as we can’t open our airport for leaders’ planes to land yet,” foreign minister Sompong Amornwiwat said.

Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono proposed his country as an alternative venue.

Indonesia and Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan were offering to hold the meeting of its foreign ministers and East Asian dialogue partners in the Asean Secretariat offices in Jakarta, while the finance ministers could meet in Bali, he said.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

every 1 CHARGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Anonymous said...

This development is good news for Cambodia, ASEAN and for the region. If Thailand disintegrates and engage in civil wars, no one will benefit from it. I don't understand the point of all the hates, curses, and ill-wishes for Thailand to have civil war from people here. You gain nothing, and in fact Cambodia stands to lose a lot, because the issues in Preah Vihear with Thailand will never be resolved until Thailand has a stable government, and that won't happen until they sort out their internal politics.

I think the Constitutional Court judges were under pressure from branches of the elite in Thailand such as the King and the military to reach certain verdict. They may want the government out without another coup, and they also want to avoid possible confrontations between the government supporters and PAD activists if this crisis deepens and lingers on.

I sense that under peaceful harmonious times, the Constitutional Court would not disband the Thai government under such a small wrong-doing (after all, the amount of votes that they were alleged to have defrauded amounted to less than 0.2% of the total votes). But here they need a new election and they need the government to resign without resorting to military coup or intervention from King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Hence, the verdict that we see today.

It is kind of glad to see that Cambodia does not have to go through what Thailand is going through right now, but Cambodia has already had her fair share of nadir, and let's just hope that we won't have to experience it again, ever.


Penh Panha


P.S.: There is considerable insults against me from people here but not one appropriate legible response to my comment. It makes me happy to see the low caliber of people who support the opposition. It verifies my theory that the opposition in Cambodia can never fool anyone except the gullible to support them. It ensures that they never get elected for years to come, which is a blessing for Cambodia.

Anonymous said...

3:15

I agree..

Anonymous said...

3:15 I totally agree with you agreeing with me.

Penh Panha

Anonymous said...

me too..

Penh Panha

Anonymous said...

So am I...

Hun Sen

Anonymous said...

So are we...

Chea Sim + Heng Samrin

Anonymous said...

Same here....

Hock Lundy (From Hell)

Anonymous said...

Joy euy...no opposition is a blessing for youn..I mean cambodia...Anh agree with you Penh Panha.

Uncle Ho and Xmer people

Anonymous said...

::It ensures that they never get elected for years to come, which is a blessing for Cambodia.
3:15 PM

I agreed about peaceful solution, but I dodn't agree with the above statement. Even yourself, you don't like to have oppositions. You need to provide proof for this claim.

For electoral fraud in Thailand, if the court believed so, they should have allowed witnessed to speak out. And, if the PAD believed that SOmchai won through fraud, then, why they proposed to change the electoral system. The PAD even argued that one vote of famer is not the same as one vote of PAD member. Is it that fair for the majority?

BSk

Anonymous said...

They are still in power through a change in party name and can continue governing with other members.Only the executive members are barred from politics for 5 years.Any free elections will bring them ex PPP back to power with new leaders as proxies..

This was a face saving act for PAD by the judicial system to end temporarily the chaos.

PAD hasnt changed the political system. Changing PM does not make the problem go away. Thaksin and his allies are still in power and will continue in the near future.

Civil war in thailand is still a menace.

Thailand benefitted from the war in vietnam, cambodia and laos. They had massive aid for decades from the US. A civil war in thailand will likewise benefit us.
Investment and touriste will be redirected to us and vietnam and laos..

No country is indispensableor irreplacable.

We don't need thai goods!

Anonymous said...

If they are allow to denounce frauds
in Cambodia's elections. Which mean denouncing
without bad consequences to the persons.
Of course, we will have a lots of case.

CPP is ruling the country like Khmer Rouge.
Worse, we have legal Khmer Rouge's system.

Good Luck Khmer Euy!!!

Khmer Canadian

Anonymous said...

An extract from an article from the Internet

Part of the reason why it may be hard, at least for formal media organisations, to tell the story is because it involves the royal family and Thailand's strict lese majesté law makes it a crime to mention royalty in unflattering light. Like Singapore's use of defamation suits and more recently contempt of court laws, the lese majesté law has the effect of creating self-censorship.

What is happening in Thailand this year is really a war of succession. This is a classic kind of conflict that arises when a political era has ended or is coming to an end and various powers jostle to seize the upper hand for the next period. The era that is ending is the reign of King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulyadej), but apparently, you're not even supposed to insinuate that!

For much of his reign, Thailand has been ruled alternately by military dictatorships and short-lived parliamentary governments. Whether one or the other, generals, politicians and senior civil servants have been drawn from the social elite, who have mostly served the interests of their own class. Thailand is relatively business-friendly because this class owns a lot of businesses. Development is centred on Bangkok, because this class is mostly based in the capital, while much of Thailand remains dirt-poor. The wealth gap between those who live in upscale Suan Phlu condominiums and their maids' families back in a rural village is shocking.

Despite these tensions, social peace has been maintained through a triad of reasons:

Firstly, Thai governments, whatever their ilk, have not done absolutely nothing for the provinces; they have done at least the minimum, such as extending the electrical grid, building roads and providing schools, that provides a semblance of progress.

Secondly, Bhumibol is genuinely popular. He spent many years criss-crossing the country listening to country folk and it is largely through his personal influence that Thai governments have not completely neglected the provinces. (But see also the box at right.)

Thirdly, Thai culture is not yet fully modern. It sees social stratification as normal and people accommodate themselves to this fact of life through a complex system of patronage. Higher-ups are respected for the gifts that they occasionally shower on poorer folk, who return the favour with loyalty; at no time do people question why some chaps are rich and powerful enough to dispense patronage and why others must remain receivers of charity.

While respect for the king is definitely genuine, it should also be noted that there has been a huge amount of propaganda over the decades building up the image of the monarchy. In Thailand, one is frequently struck by the excessive, usually obsequious, display of engineered adulation.

Despite the spread of schools, educational standards are still poor and (I believe) a majority of children in the provinces do not finish middle school. What is produced is a large pool of minimally-educated workers who are able to staff the production lines, restaurants and hotels of booming Bangkok and its industrial estates, but who do not expect the social mobility to ever challenge the place of the elite.

Then came the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Thaksin Shinawatra. The first felled many rich Thais who had over-extended themselves by borrowing abroad (at fixed exchange rates) to fund their domestic investments. The moment the Thai central bank could not maintain the exchange rate and was forced to devalue the baht, whole swathes of rich Thai society were financially crippled. Large projects in Bangkok stood unfinished. Suddenly, the upper class of Thai society did not look so permanent after all.

Into this situation burst Thaksin Shawatra, who was already a tycoon before he entered politics. In 2001, he won the general election -– then considered one of the most open, corruption-free elections ever held -- becoming prime minister. His government promptly instituted a series of populist measures, including the 30-baht healthcare scheme that brought state healthcare within reach of many rural families for the first time.

With his popularity so cemented, he proved he could win successive elections. In 2005, his Thai Rak Thai party swept 374 seats in the 500-seat lower house. This model for winning elections -– appealing to the interests of the provincial masses -– would prove highly threatening to the Bangkok elite. For the first time, they had to contemplate a government that did not depend on them, or on the royal court, for favours.

Accusations were hurled at him about corruption, vote-buying, and so on, and possibly some of the charges may well be true, though in the present charged, partisan atmosphere, it is difficult to get an impartial view as to the real facts.

Before long, Sondhi Limthongkul, a media magnate, emerged as the point man for the anti-Thaksin campaign. From the beginning, Sondhi and his People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were reputed to enjoy support from not only a cross section of the Bangkok elite, but from the court as well.

Propelling his campiagn was a sense that the political equation in Thailand had changed. The docile masses had tasted the power of their voting rights, and would in time become more and more assertive. Through Thaksin's party, they would become the new permanent majority in Thailand's politics, sidelining the old order.

So came the coup of September 2006 and a short period of military rule. Yet, it changed nothing, for when elections under a new constitution were held again in December 2007, the People Power Party (PPP), the successor to the banned Thai Rak Thai, became the largest party in parliament, and with a few allies, formed the post-coup government.

That's when the PAD changed its tune. From asserting that its campaign was against Thaksin's corrupt politics, it finally came out to say that its aim was to rewrite the constitution to make future parliaments 70 percent appointed. The masses were not to be trusted with the vote because, according to Sondhi, they were "ill-educated" and prone to selling their vote.

This is an admission that one leg of the triad that kept the old order in place has been knocked out. The masses have been empowered through their experience of Thaksin-style populism and they are not likely to go back to their meek selves.

But who would be doing the appointing of the 70 percent? Nobody ever details that.

Another leg is cracking too. King Bhumibol is now frail. He will turn 81 next month. The crown prince enjoys nothing like the same reverence that the old king does. When Bhumibol goes, the second leg of the triad goes too.

That this prospect figures strongly in the PAD's calculations was seen when -- I wish I had kept the quote and reference -- Sondhi let slip that the matter was urgent: The problem had to be solved before the royal succession.

Everybody in Thailand knows, but no one is saying it: The royal court is one of the key parties behind the PAD. Why? They need to institutionalise their grip on power before the informal influence wielded by the old king fades into history. At the same time, this faction has wide support among the Bangkok elite because they too see their interests threatened when future governments are beholden to the provincial masses rather than to them.

This is why I say it's a classic war of succession. Who would hold sway over the future of Thailand post-Bhumibol? As the king's health deteriorates, the battle becomes ever more desperate -- to the extent of seizing the airport and cutting off Bangkok from the rest of the world. The PAD and its backers see it as an existential struggle. That being the case, it hardly matters whether Thailand's economy is destroyed in the process, because if they fail, they'd be destroyed.

-khmer from fresno.

Anonymous said...

Panha, I agree with you son.

Your beloved mother.

Anonymous said...

I also wrote this in the other post.

Everyone don't be fool by Panha. I'm sure he's neither on CPP and nor on the current oppositions sides. He's just want to stir up and observe people's reaction in this forum. Notice he's always say the opposite things compare to most people here. However, he's sometimes help to fill us with what we can't see. He's probably also waiting for a new fresh leader like most people I know.

I enjoy reading your comments. Keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Penh Panha, I love you. Khmer Kteuy

Anonymous said...

Panha, we love you.
What an opera?

From all Khmer House wives

Anonymous said...

That's what I hate about Khmer. When he's on the winning side, he called the other side low caliber. I hope you satisfy when you put others down to make you feel more superior Panha. Mea omboi kom plek donkoi.

Anonymous said...

Thai, your Siam manipulation trick doesn't work anymore at this 21st century.