By Achara Ashayagachat
Bangkok Post Opinion
With a fresh, young United States administration being sworn in tomorrow, hope is up for closer ties between Bangkok and Washington, and also between the US and Asean.
Yet critics are warning that the deepening economic woes and domestic dynamics within both nations will keep the two allies apart and maintain the status quo on pending free trade negotiations.
John Brandon, director of the Asia Foundation's international relations programme, said Southeast Asia might receive a little more attention than it has under the Bush administration. However, with President-elect Barack Obama inheriting a US$1 trillion budget deficit, an economic crisis that has cost millions of jobs and depleted pension funds, reforms on health care and the education system, the expectations might not be met with realistic priorities.
Mr Obama will not be the only one tending to domestic problems. According to Mr Brandon, Southeast Asia is likely to look inwards as well. In several countries, the political situation remains volatile. Malaysia is getting a new leadership soon. Indonesia is having a presidential election. Thailand, meanwhile, is soldiering on in an attempt to get back to normalcy.
He said the Abhisit government could help Asean by working with the US in reinforcing the Asean charter which is highly recognised by Americans as a hopeful mechanism to lead the regional bloc towards being a rule-based entity.
"If I was an Asean citizen, I would not prepare a laundry list for the new US administration but would rather focus on what Asean should do in such issues as climate change, biodiversity, food and energy security, and easing up political restrictions in Burma," he said.
Harry Harding, Georgetown University professor of international affairs, said Washington has yet to be convinced on how much benefit it will get from institutionalisation within Asean.
In his view, Asean has become lacklustre due to its slow process. Its partners have been more attentive to newer forums such as the Shanghai Dialogue which involves people in direct charge of security affairs such as intelligence and defence officers, unlike the Asean Regional Forum which is more of a venue for those from the ministries of foreign affairs.
Still, Mr Harding believes the Obama administration should be more engaging and involving Asia to fill the gaps due to Washington's previous selective engagements within the region.
The US, said Mr Harding, needs to rebuild its power through both military, economic and soft-power influences, although the Asian region might not want to see any particular domination.
"We need to be less rhetorical and be moderate in such issues as human rights and rebuild our economic competitiveness by being a champion of freer trade, and revive the vibrancy of public diplomacy to regain the US' soft power," the American scholar said.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies, said the US should not only focus on their traditional interests but pay more attention to the dynamism in domestic politics in the region which would in the end affect and formulate each country's policies or attitude towards the US.
Vivat Mungkarndee, a keen US observer, said while the superpower was trying to keep Asian protectionism at bay, the region was also concerned if the US itself will become more protectionist in the face of the recession.
Regarding the economy, Somkiat Tangkitvanich, Thailand Development Research Institute's vice-president, believes internal US challenges will force both the Obama administration and Congress to change its FTA strategy.
The recession, the possibility of growing anti-globalisation sentiment and expiry of the trade promotion authority since 2007 will also impede any move to advance the FTA negotiations with Thailand.
For Thailand, political instability, residual anti-market and globalisation sentiment from the anti-Thaksin squabbling as well as procedural requirements will stall bilateral trade talks between Thailand and the US. The status quo is likely to prevail, according to Mr Somkiat.
A US Congress expert on Asia, Emma Chanlett-Avery, agrees times will be tough for free trade issues. Even the ongoing and finished FTAs with Colombia and Korea might not get a "yes" vote easily or smoothly, she said.
Other thorny issues remaining in the way include the Thailand-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, suspended since 2006, the US Trade Representative's elevation of Thailand to its Priority Watch List in 2007 for intellectual property rights violations, wrangling over the issue of compulsory licensing for some drugs and a discontinuation of GSP privileges to three more export products from Thailand since 2007.
Several analysts therefore see the risk of a drift in bilateral relations, although they generally agree there will be no major shift in overall cooperation. Despite the impeding factors, Thailand-US relations from both the administration and congressional points of view remain important because of Thailand's status as a long-time military ally and a significant trade and economic partner.
The picture will become clearer mid-year when the presence of incoming US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is required as a dialogue partner of Asean at the annual Asean Regional Forum to be held in Bangkok in July. As chair of Asean until the end of the year, Thailand is working hard to get Mrs Clinton on board.
Only time will tell if the "change" mantra will spread to the international scene.
Yet critics are warning that the deepening economic woes and domestic dynamics within both nations will keep the two allies apart and maintain the status quo on pending free trade negotiations.
John Brandon, director of the Asia Foundation's international relations programme, said Southeast Asia might receive a little more attention than it has under the Bush administration. However, with President-elect Barack Obama inheriting a US$1 trillion budget deficit, an economic crisis that has cost millions of jobs and depleted pension funds, reforms on health care and the education system, the expectations might not be met with realistic priorities.
Mr Obama will not be the only one tending to domestic problems. According to Mr Brandon, Southeast Asia is likely to look inwards as well. In several countries, the political situation remains volatile. Malaysia is getting a new leadership soon. Indonesia is having a presidential election. Thailand, meanwhile, is soldiering on in an attempt to get back to normalcy.
He said the Abhisit government could help Asean by working with the US in reinforcing the Asean charter which is highly recognised by Americans as a hopeful mechanism to lead the regional bloc towards being a rule-based entity.
"If I was an Asean citizen, I would not prepare a laundry list for the new US administration but would rather focus on what Asean should do in such issues as climate change, biodiversity, food and energy security, and easing up political restrictions in Burma," he said.
Harry Harding, Georgetown University professor of international affairs, said Washington has yet to be convinced on how much benefit it will get from institutionalisation within Asean.
In his view, Asean has become lacklustre due to its slow process. Its partners have been more attentive to newer forums such as the Shanghai Dialogue which involves people in direct charge of security affairs such as intelligence and defence officers, unlike the Asean Regional Forum which is more of a venue for those from the ministries of foreign affairs.
Still, Mr Harding believes the Obama administration should be more engaging and involving Asia to fill the gaps due to Washington's previous selective engagements within the region.
The US, said Mr Harding, needs to rebuild its power through both military, economic and soft-power influences, although the Asian region might not want to see any particular domination.
"We need to be less rhetorical and be moderate in such issues as human rights and rebuild our economic competitiveness by being a champion of freer trade, and revive the vibrancy of public diplomacy to regain the US' soft power," the American scholar said.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies, said the US should not only focus on their traditional interests but pay more attention to the dynamism in domestic politics in the region which would in the end affect and formulate each country's policies or attitude towards the US.
Vivat Mungkarndee, a keen US observer, said while the superpower was trying to keep Asian protectionism at bay, the region was also concerned if the US itself will become more protectionist in the face of the recession.
Regarding the economy, Somkiat Tangkitvanich, Thailand Development Research Institute's vice-president, believes internal US challenges will force both the Obama administration and Congress to change its FTA strategy.
The recession, the possibility of growing anti-globalisation sentiment and expiry of the trade promotion authority since 2007 will also impede any move to advance the FTA negotiations with Thailand.
For Thailand, political instability, residual anti-market and globalisation sentiment from the anti-Thaksin squabbling as well as procedural requirements will stall bilateral trade talks between Thailand and the US. The status quo is likely to prevail, according to Mr Somkiat.
A US Congress expert on Asia, Emma Chanlett-Avery, agrees times will be tough for free trade issues. Even the ongoing and finished FTAs with Colombia and Korea might not get a "yes" vote easily or smoothly, she said.
Other thorny issues remaining in the way include the Thailand-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, suspended since 2006, the US Trade Representative's elevation of Thailand to its Priority Watch List in 2007 for intellectual property rights violations, wrangling over the issue of compulsory licensing for some drugs and a discontinuation of GSP privileges to three more export products from Thailand since 2007.
Several analysts therefore see the risk of a drift in bilateral relations, although they generally agree there will be no major shift in overall cooperation. Despite the impeding factors, Thailand-US relations from both the administration and congressional points of view remain important because of Thailand's status as a long-time military ally and a significant trade and economic partner.
The picture will become clearer mid-year when the presence of incoming US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is required as a dialogue partner of Asean at the annual Asean Regional Forum to be held in Bangkok in July. As chair of Asean until the end of the year, Thailand is working hard to get Mrs Clinton on board.
Only time will tell if the "change" mantra will spread to the international scene.
2 comments:
Just do what is right"It's time to change for good for our Nation"
Especially with Cambodia better watch out for this shitty country it wants your dollars but they work for China and Viet nam their master,so if you can stop Fund to this shitty,my tax paying money would be a lot shaved.
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