Khmer Intelligence News - 21 February 2009

21 February 2009

A new Phnom Penh Governor in May (2)

The CPP has named current Phnom Penh Governor Kep Chuktema its top-of-the-list candidate for the Capital City Council election to be held on May 17, 2009. Kep Chuktema will then become President of the to-be-formed CCC, a position incompatible with that of Phnom Penh governor. This governor position will be given to Hun Neng, an elder brother of Prime Minister Hun Sen and currently governor of Kampong Cham province. There was a foiled plan to appoint Hun Neng Phnom Penh governor in 2004. See "Hun Neng to be appointed Phnom Penh governor" (KI News, 18 August 2004).

Provincial, city and district elections manipulated by CPP (2)

The ruling CPP is using many methods to manipulate the forthcoming provincial, city and district council elections scheduled for May 17, 2009. In those indirect elections, voters are the existing 11,353 commune councilors who were elected in April 2007 in Cambodia's 1,621 communes. The two main competitors are the CPP (7,993 councilors) and the SRP (2,660) while the two "royalist" parties, NRP (425) and Funcinpec (274), will be virtually wiped out given the election system.

The CPP is using against the SRP the following methods to manipulate election results:

• Press politically-motivated charges against SRP councilors, many of whom have been arrested and jailed, thus losing their voting right. The CPP-controlled tribunal has issued arrest warrants targeting several SRP commune councilors including 2 commune chiefs.
• Offer money and well-paid government adviser positions to entice SRP commune councilors to defect to the CPP or to vote for CPP candidates.
• Prevent the SRP from removing its councilors who have defected to the CPP and from replacing them with loyal councilors as legally allowed in the framework of the party list system. The CPP authorities, from the commune office to the Interior Ministry, are stalling any replacement request presented by the SRP, whereas the CPP is able to change any of its councilors within days.

IRI poll: most CPP voters actually have no political preferences (2)

By the end of 2008, the Washington-based International Republican Institute conducted an opinion poll, with one of the questions asked being the following: "What differences do you see between the major parties that competed in National Assembly elections?"

The answers were as follows:

• No differences: 33%
• Don't know: 22%
• Gifts they give: 8%
• There are differences but cannot specify: 4%

Therefore, 67% of voters do not have any real political preferences. This group of voters mainly voted for the CPP in past elections, only seeking to be on the safe side (because of intimidation) or to receive gifts (because of extreme poverty), whereas the remaining 33% voters are more politicized and more politically determined and they mainly voted for opposition parties.

At the July 2008 national election, the CPP collected 58% of the votes (mainly from the 67 % less politicized voters), whereas the SRP and the HRP obtained respectively 22% and 6% of the votes (mainly from the 33% more politicized voters).

One can see that the CPP political base is not that strong since the ruling party's propaganda themes (7th January, protection against the Khmer Rouge, peace, "development", Hun Sen's role, etc) do not hold sway in the people's mind.

South Korea, a bad teacher for stock exchange investments (2)

On February 20, Cambodia's Finance Ministry was forced to postpone the signing of a joint venture agreement on the new Phnom Penh stock exchange to be launched by the end of the year. The reason for the postponement was the fact that the Korean adviser and partner who was supposed to cosign the agreement in his capacity as CEO of the South Korea Stock Exchange, did not show up. Maybe, it was a blessing in disguise because South Korea Stock Exchange was NOT the place to invest in during the past 2 years: since 2007 a foreign investor with Korean stocks has seen the value of his assets reduced by 80 percent (stock prices in Seoul went down by 50 percent and the Korean currency, the won, fell by 30 percent against the US dollar). See also "Foreign brokerage firms will be allowed to operate in Cambodia" (KI News, 27 September 2007) and "No stock market in Cambodia in a foreseeable future" (KI News, 31 January 2007).
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27 September 2007

Foreign brokerage firms will be allowed to operate in Cambodia (1)

On September 12, 2007, the National Assembly passed a law that lays the ground for the creation of a Stock Exchange in Cambodia. Many serious problems have to be solved before a real Bourse can be set up in this country (KI News, 31 January 2007: "No stock market in Cambodia in a foreseeable future"). During the parliamentary debate, opposition leader and former Finance Minister Sam Rainsy, who had been a security analyst and a portfolio manager in Europe for twenty years, stressed that the Government will have to be strict to ensure that listed companies release accurate information to prevent the public from being cheated. He obtained the assurance from the Government that foreign brokerage firms will be allowed to do business in Cambodia in order to help our future Stock Exchange meet international standards in due course.

See financial model for stock evaluation developed by Sam Rainsy at http://tinyurl.com/yvzvxg

31 January 2007

No stock market in Cambodia in a foreseeable future (2)

Contrary to several official announcements in a recent past, Cambodia will not be able to set up any stock market in a foreseeable future. Even the South Korean companies the Cambodian authorities had strongly hoped that they would help establish a Bourse in Phnom Penh, have given up the idea because there is no reliable accounting system in Cambodia. Any listed companies would have to present credible financial statements and records over several consecutive years, which is virtually impossible to obtain in a country plagued with corruption and lawlessness.

18 August 2004

Hun Neng to be appointed Phnom Penh governor (3)

Prime Minister Hun Sen's eldest brother Hun Neng, currently Svay Rieng provincial governor, will replace Kep Chuktema as Phnom Penh Municipality governor in September or October this year. Kep Chuktema will take up the current position of Hun Neng.