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| Declining revenue of tuk-tuk drivers in Cambodia shows even the informal sector isn't insulated. |
Growth forecasts in Cambodia are generating a fair bit of confusion. Many simply question whether it is possible for GDP growth to be lower in 2009 than in the past 15 years.
The World Bank today launches its projection of a 1 percent contraction of the Cambodian economy. This is based on an analysis of available statistics and feedback from a range of economic actors. Yet, to most of my Cambodian friends, it remains hard to conceive.
It is true that "seeing" such a contraction will be difficult. Basically, what it means is that economic activity in 2009 will be pretty much the same as in 2008. So the fact that we continue to have traffic jams in Phnom Penh, see tourists at the Royal Palace, and hear construction machines in many residential areas is consistent with such a projection. What will change, though, is that incomes will not increase this year as fast as past years and it will also become more difficult for the 250,000 young people leaving school each year to find their first job. What also will be different is that with no growth in aggregate, there will be a proportion of those with a livelihood at the end of the year worse than at the beginning.........Read the rest of the article at World Bank Blog.
4 comments:
World Bank forecasts are more credible than the forecasts projected by the Cambodian government. I think Cambodian economy, like the economy of other countries around the world, will contract. Hun Sen cannot deny this reality and lambasting the forecasts of credible institutions like the world bank.
We have no idear and our PhD dr. priminister say it is OK!
The Dr. PM will say whatever he can to hide the fact. The fact of the matter is the economic situation around the world is experiencing a downturn and Cambodia will not be immune, especially since Cambodia is an under-developed country. I trust the World Bank more than Dr. Hun Sen.
Hun Sen must be nut to deny the fact that Cambodia will be hit hard as the economic around the world is experiencing a downturn. Does your PhD degree work for the country at all? Has it ever worked?
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