Thaksin used video link-up from Cambodia under Hun Sen's protection: The Nation

The barbarians are at the gate, how will the govt respond?

April 7, 2009
By Sopon Onkgara
The Nation

TOMORROW will see the beginning of suspense and tension for the entire country, when people watch how many red-shirted protesters take to the streets, intending to carry out their mission to force out key members of the Privy Council and topple the Abhisit Cabinet. If this plan is successful, the red-shirted people can roll out a red carpet to welcome their patron, Thaksin Shinawatra, back to Government House.

Can this battle plan of Thaksin and his red shirts achieve the desired goal? The chances remain dim, despite the apparent lack of a plan for a decisive response and counter-strike by the Democrats after a week of watching the barbarians at the gate.

The situation for the government has worsened since the red-shirted mob began their rally in front of Government House, despite earlier expectations that they would not last more than a few days due to the hot weather and the shortage of supplies.

When Thaksin decided to go for broke via long tirades against the government and the Privy Council through his video link-up from Cambodia - under the protection of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen - the Democrats pretended it was nothing serious. Things were under control, so they believed.

As the days have passed, Thaksin has unleashed more vicious badmouthing, elevating his campaign to a do-or-die battle, calling for a nationwide uprising of his supporters and massive street demonstrations from Government House to the residence of Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda.

Thaksin's announced plan is to remove General Prem and his protege, ex-premier General Surayud Chulanont, from office. The real intent is to bring down the entire national leadership structure, as disclosed by another Privy Council member, General Pichitr Kullavanijaya.

The Democrats are panicking, but they still profess to be unperturbed by the swelling political crisis which threatens to push the country's economy into a deeper chasm if the street demonstrations escalate into violence, as predicted by many. Bloodletting cannot be ruled out because that would be the ultimate cause for a change of government.

As of yesterday, the public remained dumbstruck by the lack of response from the government, chiefly the Democrats, who look more and more like the victims of over-confidence and their own earlier complacency.

They may appear a bit more honest than the barbarians at the gate, whose bosses have had their days in government. Still, the obvious weakness displayed through inaction and lack of a battle plan is inexplicable. There should be a survival instinct among the battle-hardened Democrats.

The repeated calls by supporters for the Democrats to counter Thaksin's intense accusations have fallen on deaf ears. What they should do is simply broadcast the truth of Thaksin's long years of massive corruption, abuse of power and a wide range of misdeeds. They do nothing.

This is in sharp contrast to the Thaksin years, when the public was fed with propaganda, spin and lies. Maybe the Democrats have forgotten the art of self-preservation. Alright, politicians are generally perceived as people who don't speak the truth, or don't know how to - but they should not forget how to boast about themselves.

Politicians might be able to survive for some time when they have power. The public may allow them to cheat, lie and get away with stupid acts, but once a sign of weakness becomes evident, then their end in power is near. Over the past week, the Democrats have hardly inspired confidence through either word or deed.

What is the worst-case scenario when the demonstrations start tomorrow? Thaksin and his red-shirted crony campaigners boast they will be at least 100,000 strong, if not three times that level. That sounds highly unlikely. But after a week of verbal attacks and lies, the potential of the gathering red-shirt strength cannot be underestimated.

What will be the consequences, intended or otherwise? The number of demonstrators becomes less significant if we take into account the risk of possible violence between red-shirt protestors and supporters of General Prem, who have also vowed to gather in front of his residence. Violence could erupt by provocative acts on either side or a tough response by the authorities.

No matter how events unfold, the country's economy will take longer to recover, and a lot will depend on public confidence in the government. Thaksin stands little chance of achieving victory in his final battle. If he is defeated, it will be difficult for Hun Sen to shelter him. The last thing he may have to pay dearly for is his life.

Seers and astrologers had forewarned Thaksin earlier that, over the years of his rise and fall, he would gradually lose power, wealth and his home. The first three steps have happened and are happening. The last one is a certainty, but only how and when.