Friday, July 03, 2009

Preah Vihear – Part I: The Perfect Storm

July 3rd, 2009
Op-Ed by Khmer Academy

The Preah Vihear contention has now entering its twelve months old, still it shows no sign of abating down and has all the ingredients to trigger a full scale armed conflict. From the Cambodia’s perspective, Thailand border diplomacy leaves many Khmers perplexed and wondered whether Thai elite really understands or cares about the far reaching consequences of such diplomacy.

In this two-parts essay, the author will present the options on the Cambodia side, and argue from the military and political standpoints that Thai current border diplomacy is not only inconsistent with her long term interests but also has damaging repercussions far beyond what she could have anticipated.

While the arguments are strongly worded and appear to be confrontational, they nonetheless reflect the true situation in any armed conflict. The author does not wish to see both countries embark on the path of war, but fears that the absence of genuine statesmanship and real commitment to solve the current border conflict are dangerously bringing both countries closer to war each day.

By comparison, Cambodia is considerably smaller than Thailand in terms of national GDP, population as well as military size and budget. While Cambodian armed forces are mainly equipped with AK-47 assault riffles, B-40 RPG and a few T-54 Russian tanks, Thai armed forces, on the other hand, are equipped with long range artilleries, powerful battle tanks, state-of-the art fighter jets F-16, fleet of modern destroyers, and advanced Command and Control Communications systems.

Numerically and logistically speaking, several Western military observers are in the opinion that Cambodian armed forces are no match to the Thai counterpart. So is likely the opinion of Thai Supreme Command who may wrongly assess that its present numerical and logistical advantages will deter the Cambodian counterpart. Such assessment is not only flaw, but has also created a false sense of overconfidence and a dangerous bullying attitude which complicates and intensifies the current conflict.

Thai generals may think that in any eventual full scale military conflict, air strikes and artillery shelling will cripple Cambodian resistance, and that battlefields will be restricted and contained to either the border areas or inside Cambodia territory.

Interestingly, this is not how the Cambodia side sees it. Cambodia is well aware of, but not deterred by her current numerical and logistical lacking. Instead, she’s counting on the raising nationalist sentiment of her people as well as the will and the battlefield experiences of her soldiers, most of whom are veteran guerrillas who had fought in the jungles, got used to the hardship and could survive with bare minimum.

Should a war breaks out, the nationalist sentiment will run feverously high, and Cambodia will have no difficulty to mobilize and commit up to one million men to defend the country. These men are not salary soldiers, but warriors who will fight with resolute determination.

Make no mistake. The so-called jungle or guerrilla warfare and tactics from the cold war era will not be the only option available to the Cambodia side, and it would be unwise to assume that battlefields will be restricted to only the border areas.

The world has changed, so has the ugly face of war. An increasing number of today armed conflicts around the globe have taken the new form of urban warfare, where die-hard or rogue elements within military structures do not hesitate to operate outside their chains-of-commands to carry out despicable acts and terrorize civilian population. Tourist industry, public amenities, transport and infrastructure – to name a few – are vulnerable and have all become easy targets.

With the low cost and high availability of information technology gadgets, today urban warfare is highly sophisticated and extremely difficult to prevent. Internet email accounts and blogs, which are seamlessly accessible, have become an effective tool for suicide bombers to plot and coordinate their deadly attacks on civilian targets; various cell phones have been used to remotely trigger explosives in market places; and the list goes on.

The possibility of such attacks or threat, no matter how remote or unlikely it is, can cause a sense of general panic among the local population, scare off the tourists and severely disrupts the economy. Cambodia side really trusts that Thai generals consider such possibility as a serious warning sign on their radar screens. Neither long range artilleries nor F-16 fighter jets can guarantee public security or protection against urban warfare tactics.

Cambodia side does not wish to embark on a destructive path, but can not accept to be held captive or hostage by its neighbour internal politics. The International Community has ruled and unequivocally recognized Cambodia as the sole and legitimate owner of the Preah Vihear temple. As a proud member of the World community, Thailand is obliged to respect that ruling, and it is in her best interest to move on. The military bullying attitude and provocative behaviour on this issue serve no purpose, but damage her own image, to say the least, in the international arena.

[To follow… Preah Vihear – Part 2: The Indochina Factor]

Khmer Academy
khmeracademy@gmail.com
July 3rd, 2009

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

If this war broke out with Thailand, many Cambodian people from abroad will flooded to Cambodia to help to protect her country and sovereignty. Including soldiers from the US served in Irag and Afganistan war will go Cambodia to joint the front line to fight. Cambodia will not be bullied by her neighbors.

Anonymous said...

The thais may be arrogant and have a superiority complex, but they are not stupid. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by opting for war with cambodia.

I understand the author's point of view and nationalism but it is such a farfetched scenario.

Thai saber rattling like that of cambodia is for the local political consumption.Cambodia can allow itself to shout louder and stronger insults as they are in the right.
the thais have such a bad image due to the debacle of the ASEAN summit implosion that they are in no position to force any international resolution.As long as the illegitimate gvernment in bangkok face internal upheaval from thaksin followers they only hane the nationalist fervor to keep them in power.therefore it is in their interest to keep the tension high but not to boiling point.

There might be more border skirmishes but no outright war. After all, these border tensions might cause the lost of life for a handful of soldiers but they serve to keep both governments firmly in power.

Anonymous said...

And Hun Sen is using this conflict to camouflage his corrupt government failings and bring popular support to himself through nationalistic fervor.
The thais are not only strenghtening Hun sen's grip on power but they are also weakening their own politcal power in the region.

Anonymous said...

Certainly, this event will ineluctably create a diplomatic perfect storm, and, of course, if diplomacy fails -- as usual -- military will certainly be a success to bring the Thais on their knees.

PPU

Anonymous said...

We still have soldier Khmers born from French, German, Suisse and others to joint the Royal Cambodian Army Force to protect the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Khmers.

Anonymous said...

2:44 PM

Have you thought about the military contract that these men and women in uniform signed. Violation of the contract, they may find themselves in Court Marshall.

PPU

Anonymous said...

This is what I call "mental masterbation"

Anonymous said...

3:00 PM
Of course, we know very well the contract. In the affair between Thailand and Cambodia, for all Khmers born and Khmer descents have the right to serve for Cambodia and protect the territorial of their ancestor.

Anonymous said...

what a load of craps!

Anonymous said...

Yep, when craps talked ,people get pissed.

Anonymous said...

2:04.... Amen brother!

PPU,
Understand this; our men and women who served in the arm forces are not all US citizens. Therefore, they may choose to fight for their decending country if they wanted to as long as they're discharge or relinguished their title.
There is not a rule in the books that will stipulate anyone from doing so.

Anonymous said...

And yes after we finish off the invaders then we will deal a hard blow to a big mouth PPU.

Anonymous said...

I don't mind fighting against Thai invasion as long as doing so will protect our territory, souvereignity and, independance. However, I will not sacrifice my life to protect my homeland from Thailand but end up give it to Vietnam eventually.

Anonymous said...

It is only sensible to consider all possibilities and scenarios where statecraft and national security is concerned. As a nation we should at least reflect on our past errors in judgement which have cost us incomparable losses in human lives and territories.

When faced with external threat, our numerical disavantage coupled with internal divisions had usually forced 'us' to call upon outsiders for help which like all form of acquiring favour must be repaid in some way, eventually.

Thai insulence and synicism in the face of international treaties and protocols vis-a-vis the PV issue are not conducive to neighbourly relations nor to regional stability. Thai policians know all too well the Cambodian people's suffering in recent past and their yearning for peace and development. Yet this has not deterred warring factions in Thailand from turning PV into a sideshow in Thai political power struggle.

The Thais traditionally pursued a rather opportunistic strategy; what historians may term 'bending with the wind', and of course such an approach is well known in military thinking which further more has served Thailand rather well historically.

If Bangkok desires a regime change in PP and wishes to pursue this aim(and I fail to see why it does, despite the Thaksin connection)then it will have to wait until a regime change has taken place in Hanoi first before it plans a blitzkriek against the present PP regime.

If full-scale war breaks out along the Khmer-Thai border, the Vietnamese will hold back even if Battambang and Siem Reap subsequently fall under Thai control, confident that Thai military advances can be reversed by their Vietnam trained Khmer commanders and will likely do so until Phnom Penh is within Thai artillery range. Hanoi likes to do things quietly behind the scene.

Does the PP regime require war with a neigbouring country or being forced to wage war with one bolster its popularity among the population?

War with a traditional enemy always stir up nationalist sentiment, but it certainly does not always lead to or end in desired outcome for everyone involved. The Cambodian ruling elite could benefit more from a period of sustained peace where its social improvement projects can be realised and are certain to attract further popular support.

After all, men may dream of grander things in their minds, but in their hearts they may be quite content to see that their bellies are full and their wives and daughters are not molested.

Can Cambodia benefit from Thai provocation over PV issue?

Well, this conflict arising suddenly as it has serves as a wake-up call for the Cambodian nation, and ,in particular, Cambodian politicians. If Cambodia's means for reinforcing her national security and sovereignty is perceived as sound or strong, perhaps, Bangkok would have been less inclined to send black clad soldiers across the border and onto Cambodian soil declaring Thailand 'has the right to use its own map'!

The case for strong national defense is self-evident and it may benefit Cambodia far beyond the PV conflict. It could provide the key to resolving Cambodia's historical dilemma of having to accept foreign hegemony or face oblivion.


MP

Anonymous said...

I agrred with MP 12:55 AM observation and I also to add this:

Don't just talk from increase to reduce, from reduce to increase forces, just setup the military position and fight.

To see who has the most advantage between the US master and Hanoi Master?

Let's set this game on the betting board and let's everyone bet...

I Bet 50,000 US dollars "Thai will open fight on Cambodian side first" and possible invasion to conquer cambodia to replace Cambodia from Hanoi's influence to Bangcock's new ruler.

Let's the Fourth Indochina War begin!

Anonymous said...

Abhisit and Hun may play with fire if they make a pact to use this conflict to stir up nationalistic fervor in order to camouflage their respective internal governance issues: weak national support and corrupt government causing fragile institutional branches.

Although both may prolong their claws on power, the Thais may loose their heavy foreign investments as well as their politcal cloud in ASEAN.

Anonymous said...

Breaking News from Phnom Penh...

សួស្ដីម្រិយមិត្ត

ភរិយា​ ជា​ ស៊ីម ងាប់ហើយ!


ញ៉ែម សឿន ភរិយា​របស់​ ជា ស៊ីម ប្រធាន​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា និង​ជា​ប្រធាន​ព្រឹទ្ធសភា​បាន​ងាប់​នៅ​ម៉ោង​បី​ទៀប​ភ្លឺ​ឈាន​ចូល​ថ្ងៃ​សុក្រ​ទី​០៣​ឧសភា​នេះ​ហើយ ។ ពិធី​បុណ្យ​សព​កំពុង​ប្រព្រឹត្ត​ទៅ​នៅ​ភូមិ​គ្រឹះ​ ជា ស៊ីម ដោយ​មាន​ការ​ចូលរួម​ពី ​គណបក្ស​នយោបាយ​មួយ​ចំនួន។

Let's Party for 7days and 7 Nights

Anonymous said...

MP – you highlight some very interesting points in your comments. It’s been a while I saw a well-thought comment like this on Khmer blogs. May be you should write more often. As for the potential war scenario, I am quite cautious but at the same time optimistic about our ability to defend the country. It would be a suicidal for the Thais to venture down that road. They have nothing to gain, and we have nothing to lose.

Anonymous said...

we all know siem is infringing on khmer sovereignty like preah vihear when they kept on demanding joint management or our temple. we make the decision about which country we wanted for joint management or whatever if we see the need to; however, for siem thugs to demand that in advance as if the temple and surrounding access areas belong to them is so illegal and in violation of international treaty, and so forth.

now, we haven't heard from unesco's own mouth about this siem's claim that unesco want to delay our preah vihear temple listing for world heritage site straight for the horse's mouth. so far, we only heard embarrassing claim from the siem thugs illegal and wishful thinking statement. i would seek direct official memorandum from unesco about this siem claim that cambodia had not submitted the plan of conservation of our world heritage site like the siem thieves claim. we did not hear directly from unesco so far. cambodia has many many other alternative to conserve our ancient khmer temple of preah vihear!

Anonymous said...

it would be a huge mistake if the world did not intervene to stop the thai from bullying cambodia, especially with their more advance armed forces techology, etc. i'm sure cambodia thinks different about that! look, the bottom line is we all know the thai's intention on preah vihear, to steal it from cambodia. remember, cambodia had to take them to icj in 1962 to avoid a full scale war with them then. and now, again! the siem thugs think it's some kind of joke or something to steal! cambodia needs to serious take thailand to court again once and for all this time so in the future, this thug-like nation cannot steal from cambodia again! god bless cambodia.

Anonymous said...

i think it is the beginning of the end of the so-called thai empire, a self-proclaim nation of thugs who only know how to steal from cambodia and khmer people! their doomsday is here, very near, indeed! we like to see all war broke out in thailand just like what happened in cambodia in the early 1970s. now, it thailand's turn, they need to experience this war state like cambodia went through since the early 1970s that just ended in 1998. watch the effeminate thai thugs population will run like dogs and cats and their once prosperous bangcock capital will be just another beruit or ghost town like phnom penh during the KR era! i see their time is coming sooner than later, especially if they keep bullying cambodia like this with our preah vihear temple, etc... god bless cambodia.

Anonymous said...

yes, historically observed, the siem or thai race is an opportunistic race who always take advantage like during wwII, during the decline of the khmer empire, during cambodia's dark ages, during the civil war era and KR era in cambodia, etc., to strengthen their own siem power and influence in the world stage. thus, i think the world need not look only to thailand for anything, regionally; the world need to refocus and bypass thailand altogether to look deeping into understand and see the bigger picture in cambodia if it were to help solve any cambodian/thai problem as a world authoritative body.

Anonymous said...

whatever PPU says , don't mind him because he is not khmer. he is here to bark for CPP because they pay him to do that.

Anonymous said...

To Ah Anthony AKA PPU, American name, who support CPP Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime killing innocent Khmer peoples.

I recall you don't likes KI Media and KI Media reader.

PPU, why don't you ask the CPP to create a web site for you, so you can write bad comments about opposition party and innocent Khmer peoples who is victims of CPP Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime all you want?

It's seem like you dominated KI Media comment section and you don't even likes KI Media and KI Media readers.

Who are you think you are?

On KI Media, you have two identity.

PPU, you are a CPP tool.

Your job is to say good things about criminals (CPP Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime) and bad things about opposition party and innocent Khmer peoples who is victims of CPP Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime.

Ah Anthony AKA PPU, do me a favor don't ever tell anyone that you are Khmer, because you make Khmer peoples look bad.     

Anonymous said...

Democratic Kampuchea Pol Pot Khmer Rouge Regime had committed:

Torture
Execution
Massacre
Atrocities
War Crimes
Crimes Against Humanity
Starvations
Overwork to Death
Slavery
Rapes
Abuses
Assault and Battery


Cambodian People's Party Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime had committed:

Assassination
Murder
Killing
Extrajudicial Killings
Grenade Attack
Terrorism
Drive by Shooting
Torture
Intimidation
Death Threat
Threatening
Human Rights Abuses
Human Trafficking
Drugs Trafficking
Under Age Child Sex
Corruptions
Illegal Mass Evictions
Illegal Land Grabbing
Illegal Firearms
Illegal Logging
Illegal Deforestation
Illegally Sold State Properties
Illegally Sold National Resources
Illegally Remove Pailamentory Immunity
Acid Attacks
Abductions
Injustice
Abuse of Power
Make Cambodia a Lawless Country
Oppression
Steal Votes
Abuse the National Election Committee
Abuse the National Assembly
Violate the Laws
Violate the Constitution
Violate the Paris Accords

Under Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime, no criminals that has been committed murder and all other crimes within Hun Sen Khmer Rouge government have ever been brought to justice.

Kraingmeas said...

LE 14 JUILLET EN L'HONNEUR DE
L'ex-COMMANDANT KHMER ROUGE
C'est "VRAIMENT" trop!
Le GRC actuel semble davantage s'affairer à gonfler les lobbies à la fois pour se conformer de l'idéologie de "récupération politique" [destruction des patrimoines des régimes royaliste et républicain précédents] et celle qui consisterait à se cacher derrière une quelconque "ingérence diplomatique" si l'on osait accuser sa gouvernance et mettait ainsi sur table des urgences nationales: intégrité territoriale et indépendance nationale.
En honorant la présence d'un ex-commandant khmer rouge toujours "en puissance", la France aura marié et fait collaborer le pétinisme à la cambodgienne pour ainsi saboter les bonnes raisons des cambodgiens et khméro-français -voire même des français de souche- ayant un "sain d'esprit".
Je me souviens des atrocités infligées par les hommes du "second" premier-ministre (5-6 juillet 1997) qui avait capturé les gardes rapprochés du prince Ranariddh --1er premier-ministre en 1997-- à avaler de l'eau des égoûts dans leur emprisonnement et tortures pratiquées à l'Ecole de formation de PM (Toul Kork); de même six autres généraux assassinés (Graux. LY Seng Hong, MAO Bunthân, KROÛCH Yoeurm (langue coupée), CHAO Sambath (mutilé), CHEA Rithy Chhuth (balancé d'un hélicoptère à Pich Nil), ... NHIEK Bun Chhay [seul survivant].
Pire les généraux et officiers décorés par des Reach Kret (=promulgation royale) se sont vus après re-décorer par leur CHEF, premier-ministre élu par le coup d'Etat comme "Homme fort" de l'évènement.
Le malheur qui persiste encore de nos jours proviendrait absolument du "s'en-foutisme" de l'ASEAN et parallèlement de la part du monde occidental, de la peur d'engager une certaine ingérence sinon le fameux langage diplomatique trop classique face aux dictatures.
Eh bien! Les plus futés en sont donc conscients et vont POURSUIVRE leur mécanique meurtrière à travers le monde.
La diplomatie ne deviendrait- elle alors qu'un brouillon de papier jetable pendant que les enfants du Cambodge actuel se nourrissent dans des déchetteries municipales et que les contribuables "civilisés" |que nous sommes] travaillent pour cumuler et davantage cumuler notre donation, encore et encore en direction de tels gouvernements "irréprochables" qui ne cesseront de narguer le monde: la corne africaine, la Birmanie, le moyen orient, l'ex URSS,...
Revenons à l'ex-commandant de Khmer rouge du génocide.
Pour oublier (en serait-t-on capable davant une telle monstruosité?), une éventuelle décoration au titre de la Légion d'honneur s'avérerait-elle nécessaire ou indispensable?

Anonymous said...

3:01 PM . it would be better if you post it in english because this is an english website . i don't know if anyone here can read your french

Anonymous said...

3:01 PM . i'm sorry to say this . it would be better if you post it in english because this is an english website . i don't know if anyone here can read your french

Anonymous said...

Glad you guys found out the world is not anglophile. Our fracophile compatriot is outraged by the presence of the one eyed bandit at the celebration of the french revolution 14 july in france.Also he is codemnsthe execution of the opponents by Hun Sen during his coup d'eate . Those assasins were decorated by the king. Need I say more.

Kraingmeas said...

Association des Anonymous!
Moi je m'appelle Kraing Meas ou Kraing Yeuov selon votre goût et non pas anonymous. Arriverait-on à bâtir un nouveau royaume du Cambodge d'"anonymous" où les députés sont tous à charcuter à la moindre tuerie de moustiques?
Ca ne va pas loin mes chares patriotes!
Les pseudonymes sont pour parer à cette peur et il y en a tellement: Reast Yum Srek, reastr Aut Srok, Reastr Aut Bay, Kaun khmer Dam deum Kor, ... Bang Youn Sralang Tê Khmer... Teouv Kampon Boeu Meul Ancore!

De toute façon, de votre ordinateur on sait où vous êtes et qui vous êtes. Ce n'est que des signaux que Poutine se l'obtendra sans problème. Allez vous renseigner avec les experts de Miami (Hollywood Brothers) ou encore les coréens qui installent ces appareil ches Kanharithy Ofile.
Comment donc rassurez la population quand le PM va voir les Rafales & discuter à Paris de notre sort?

Kraingmeas said...

English text by Google translator:
Vice-versa you could put in translate it samely all starnger texts to french langage. Very elementary, Dear Watson!


14 JULY IN HONOR OF
The former commander KHMER ROUGE
It is "REALLY" too!
The current RCMP seems to swell more busy lobbies for both conform to the ideology of "political exploitation" [destruction of the assets of royalist and republican regimes earlier] and that would be to hide behind any "interference diplomatique "if we dared to accuse its governance and put on the table and national emergencies: territorial integrity and national independence.
In honoring the presence of a former Khmer Rouge commander still in power, France has been married and working in the Pétin Cambodian and sabotage the good reasons for the Cambodian and Cambodian-french-french or even ethnic - having a "sound mind".
I remember the atrocities inflicted by the men of the "second" first minister (5-6 July 1997) that had captured the guards approached Prince Ranariddh - 1st Prime Minister in 1997 - to swallow water from sewage in their imprisonment and torture at the Training School PM (Toul Kork), as well six other general murdered (Graux. LY Seng Hong, MAO Bunthân, Krouch Yoeurm (tongue cut), Chao Sambath (mutilated), Rithy CHEA Chhuth (swinging from a helicopter at Pitch Nil), ... NHIEK Bun Chhay [survivor].
Worst generals and officers decorated by Reach Kret (Royal = enactment) were re-decorate after by their leader, Prime Minister elected by the coup as "strong man" of the event.
The misfortune that persists to this day would come absolutely "agree foutisme" of ASEAN and in parallel from the Western world, fear to take some interference or the diplomatic language too famous classical face of dictatorships .
Well! Most are smart and therefore aware will continue their murderous mechanics around the world.
Diplomacy would not it then a draft paper disposable while the children of Cambodia current feed of municipal waste and that taxpayers "civilized" | we are] working to earn more and accumulate our gift, and yet in the direction of such governments "blameless" which will continue to defy the world: the African Horn, Burma, the Middle East, the former USSR ...
Returning to the former commander of the Khmer Rouge genocide.
To forget (would there be such a capable davant monstrosity?), Any decorations for the Legion of Honor would be a necessary or indispensable?

Kraingmeas said...

From Google translator:

"Association of Anonymous?"
I'm Kraing Meas Kraing Yeuov or according to your taste and not anonymous. We happen to build a new Kingdom of Cambodia as "anonymous" where all members are butchered at the slightest killing mosquitoes?
It does not go far CHARES my patriots!
Nicknames are to deal with this fear and there are so: Reast Yum Srek, Srok Reastr Aut, Aut Reastr Bay Kaun Khmer deum Kor Dam, ... Bang Sralang Tê Khmer Youn ... Teouv Kampon Boeu Meul Ancore!

Anyway, on your computer knows where you are and who you are. Only signals that Putin himself obtendrás without problem. Come find out with the experts in Miami (Hollywood Brothers) or Koreans who install the device approaches Kanharithy Ofili.
How, then reassure the public when the PM will see Rafales & Paris to discuss our fate?

7:54 PM

Anonymous said...

I have no idea what 7:54 PM is talking about.