Cambodia Riles Thailand with Thaksin Appointment

18 Nov 2009
Greg Lowe
World Politics Review

BANGKOK -- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's recent appointment of Thailand's former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, as an economic adviser was the diplomatic equivalent of precision bombing, whose shockwaves have sent relations between the neighboring Southeast Asian nations into a tailspin.

But as the dust settles, observers say it is unclear who actually benefited from the increased tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.

Thaksin -- who was ousted by a military putsch in September 2006 and has been a polarizing figure in Thai politics ever since -- is on the run from a two-year jail term for corruption handed down by Thailand's Supreme Court in October 2008.

Hun Sen, a self-professed friend of the former premier, landed a hefty diplomatic sucker punch on current Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva by publicizing his offer of a post to Thaksin while attending the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand late last month.

The act of provocation was especially raw for Abhisit, as a previous ASEAN conference hosted by Thailand in March was abandoned when pro-Thaksin protesters from the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship stormed the summit venue, forcing some regional leaders to be airlifted to safety. Supporters of the same protest group then rioted on the streets of Bangkok for several days in a bid to bring down the government.

On Nov. 4, Hun Sen followed up his announcement by declaring in a televised statement that once Thaksin arrived in Cambodia, he would not be extradited to Thailand as requested, saying his Thai conviction was "politically motivated." A diplomatic storm ensued, with Thailand recalling its ambassador in protest the next day, and Phnom Penh reciprocating.

Thaksin finally arrived in Cambodia on Nov. 10 for a five-day visit, during which he delivered a speech on economics to state officials. Further Thai requests for his arrest and extradition were rejected. Tensions escalated further when Cambodia subsequently arrested a Thai engineer for spying. It also expelled the first secretary of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh, which saw Bangkok respond in kind.

That Thailand's domestic turmoil -- which has divided the country between pro- and anti-Thaksin camps since the 2006 coup -- has now been internationalized is "extremely regrettable" says Isra Sunthornvut, deputy secretary-general to the Thai prime minister for political affairs. "Throughout our tenure as the government, Hun Sen has always said his friendship with Thaksin would never interfere with government affairs." That line has now been crossed, Sunthornvut says.

Opinion remains divided, however, on the efficacy of Thailand's response. Some analysts say Bangkok followed diplomatic protocol by ramping up its protests against the appointment. Others state that Abhisit's Democrat-led coalition overreacted by taking the Hun Sen-Thaksin bait.

Regardless, the government's stance against Phnom Penh initially proved popular with the Thai public. Abhisit's approval rating tripled to 68.6 percent on Nov. 7, up from 23.3 percent in September, according to an Abac poll. But as tensions escalated, calls were made for a more conciliatory approach.

Paul Quaglia, director of PSA Asia, which provides corporate intelligence and political risk analysis, says the spat is unlikely to have a long-term effect, given centuries of tense and tumultuous relations between the two countries.

Quaglia takes the view that while the recent dispute served the agendas of both Thaksin and Hun Sen, the latter's willingness "to get down in the mud" was primarily aimed at Abhisit, not the Thai government per se. "I also think that Hun Sen underestimated what the effect of it would be," he says. "Abhisit is going to come out of this fairly neutral from a Thai perspective."

Thaksin is also unlikely to return to Cambodia in the near future, says Quaglia.

Some commentators agree, adding that while Thaksin's initial arrival in Cambodia boosted his domestic supporters and left egg on the face of the Thai government, in retrospect it may have done more harm than good.

In particular, a controversial interview Thaksin gave the Times Online in London, in which he discussed the taboo subject of the succession of Thailand's revered king, has deeply unsettled many Thais.

But some say the debacle has seriously tarnished both bilateral relations and ASEAN's goal of establishing a unified economic community by 2015.

"The bilateral ruckus has put ASEAN on the spot internationally, and undermines the 10-member organization's ambitious plans to cohere into an ASEAN community," says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "If ASEAN cannot get its house in order . . . it will have difficulty convincing the international community that it is relevant in East Asian regionalism."

On Tuesday, Cambodia granted Thai diplomats access to the alleged Thai spy being held in a Phnom Penh prison, producing a notable improvement in diplomatic relations. Abhisit praised the Cambodian government for following international standards.

"Today, cooperation between Cambodia and Thailand on this arrested individual, Siwarak Chotipong, has been quite successful," Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn told World Politics Review.

In trade terms, Quaglia says his firm's corporate clients endured last year's street protests and airports seizures by the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy. So as long as infrastructure is not blocked and political violence is avoided, he says, business will continue as normal.

But Thitinan takes a more pessimistic view.

"Thai-Cambodian relations will suffer palpably in the long run. The residual and latent effects after this storm passes will poison the bilateral atmosphere, reinforcing age-old tensions," he says. "Hun Sen's taking sides in Thai politics . . . means that as long as the Democrat Party remains in power, bilateral relations will be tense and bumpy."

Hun Sen decided to wager on Thai politics, and he placed his bet on Thaksin, Thitinan explained. Whether or not that bet pays off will now depend on how Thai politics pan out.

Greg Lowe is a Bangkok-based British journalist who has been living in Thailand since 2001. He covers Thailand for the Bangkok Post, as well as for Business Times, Singapore's major business daily. He contributes news, analysis and features on business, politics, culture and current affairs to a number of regional and national publications, including Asia Property Report, AsiaSentinel.com and South China Morning Post. His Website is thegreglowe.com.