By JAMES HOOKWAY
Wall Street Journal
BANGKOK -- Since being forced out of power in a military coup three years ago, ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra has made a show of traveling the world to keep himself in the public eye back home.
But his latest gambit -- taking up a role as economic adviser to Thailand's neighbor and historic rival, Cambodia -- threatens to backfire and jeopardize his standing in the country he still hopes one day to lead, analysts say.
On Thursday, Mr. Thaksin began his new job by delivering a lecture on economic planning to Cambodian government officials in Phnom Penh. The self-made telecommunications magnate still commands the support of many Thais, and said he could use his business skills to help steer Cambodia's economic development. He also lobbed a verbal grenade towards his foes in Thailand, accusing them of "false patriotism" by criticizing his trip to Cambodia, where he has been photographed smiling and making golf plans with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen before he leaves aboard his private jet on Friday.
This is going down badly in Thailand, where many of Mr. Thaksin's critics accuse him of selling out his country's interests to help an ancient enemy instead.
"If Mr. Thaksin persists with this alliance with Cambodia, the nationalist backlash in Thailand will pick up, even among his own supporters," says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
The photoshoots in Cambodia might play particularly badly next to images of Thailand's current, military-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who on Sunday will host U.S. President Barack Obama in Singapore at the first-ever summit between Southeast Asian leaders and an American president.
Mr. Thaksin's decision to work as Mr. Hun Sen's economic adviser is a risky strategy. The two men are close personally and share a penchant for golf and sparring with their critics in the media. But historical enmity between Thailand and Cambodia runs deep. Cambodia's Khmer Empire, which dates back to the ninth century, was for centuries the dominant power in the region.
More recently, anti-Thai riots broke out in Cambodia in 2003 after a Thai actress was incorrectly reported in the local media as saying Cambodia's national symbol – the Angkor Wat temple complex -- belonged to Thailand. Since 2008, at least seven soldiers from both sides have been killed in clashes near another temple, Preah Vihear, which is claimed by both countries, while a Thai man living in Cambodia was arrested in August for sketching out a map of the Angkor Wat complex on his toilet floor -- an act which some Cambodians consider a gross insult.
This contentious history, analysts say, suggests Mr. Thaksin and Mr. Hun Sen may be joining forces in a concerted effort to embarrass Mr. Abhisit's nearly year-old government.
The dispute may also provide Cambodia with more leverage in future negotiations over competing temple claims – as well as the significant oil and gas deposits believed to exist off Cambodia's shores -- with its larger, more powerful neighbor. Analysts say the country is growing in confidence now that Chinese and South Korean business have begun investing there, and it is less dependent on Thailand and its other large neighbor, Vietnam.
For his part, Mr. Thaksin, the only Thai leader to have been re-elected, now has the opportunity to use Cambodia as a base from which to organize his supporters across the border in Thailand -- a prospect that alarms leaders in Bangkok, who are only just recovering from the impact of antigovernment riots in the city last April.
Thailand and Cambodia have withdrawn their ambassadors, and Thailand this week filed an extradition request to Cambodia to hand over Mr. Thaksin for a corruption conviction. Mr. Hun Sen's government refused, saying the charges against Mr. Thaksin are politically motivated and a direct result of the 2006 military coup. Thailand is now moving to cancel and oil and gas exploration deal with Cambodia and has raised the prospect of partially closing its border. Troop movements near the disputed temple sites are now a real possibility, analysts say.
Other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are struggling to contain their irritation with both sides ahead of their historic meeting with Mr. Obama Sunday on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum meeting in Singapore.
"We in Asean cannot afford to be seen as being so seriously divided," Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan said in a statement.
Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com
But his latest gambit -- taking up a role as economic adviser to Thailand's neighbor and historic rival, Cambodia -- threatens to backfire and jeopardize his standing in the country he still hopes one day to lead, analysts say.
On Thursday, Mr. Thaksin began his new job by delivering a lecture on economic planning to Cambodian government officials in Phnom Penh. The self-made telecommunications magnate still commands the support of many Thais, and said he could use his business skills to help steer Cambodia's economic development. He also lobbed a verbal grenade towards his foes in Thailand, accusing them of "false patriotism" by criticizing his trip to Cambodia, where he has been photographed smiling and making golf plans with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen before he leaves aboard his private jet on Friday.
This is going down badly in Thailand, where many of Mr. Thaksin's critics accuse him of selling out his country's interests to help an ancient enemy instead.
"If Mr. Thaksin persists with this alliance with Cambodia, the nationalist backlash in Thailand will pick up, even among his own supporters," says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
The photoshoots in Cambodia might play particularly badly next to images of Thailand's current, military-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who on Sunday will host U.S. President Barack Obama in Singapore at the first-ever summit between Southeast Asian leaders and an American president.
Mr. Thaksin's decision to work as Mr. Hun Sen's economic adviser is a risky strategy. The two men are close personally and share a penchant for golf and sparring with their critics in the media. But historical enmity between Thailand and Cambodia runs deep. Cambodia's Khmer Empire, which dates back to the ninth century, was for centuries the dominant power in the region.
More recently, anti-Thai riots broke out in Cambodia in 2003 after a Thai actress was incorrectly reported in the local media as saying Cambodia's national symbol – the Angkor Wat temple complex -- belonged to Thailand. Since 2008, at least seven soldiers from both sides have been killed in clashes near another temple, Preah Vihear, which is claimed by both countries, while a Thai man living in Cambodia was arrested in August for sketching out a map of the Angkor Wat complex on his toilet floor -- an act which some Cambodians consider a gross insult.
This contentious history, analysts say, suggests Mr. Thaksin and Mr. Hun Sen may be joining forces in a concerted effort to embarrass Mr. Abhisit's nearly year-old government.
The dispute may also provide Cambodia with more leverage in future negotiations over competing temple claims – as well as the significant oil and gas deposits believed to exist off Cambodia's shores -- with its larger, more powerful neighbor. Analysts say the country is growing in confidence now that Chinese and South Korean business have begun investing there, and it is less dependent on Thailand and its other large neighbor, Vietnam.
For his part, Mr. Thaksin, the only Thai leader to have been re-elected, now has the opportunity to use Cambodia as a base from which to organize his supporters across the border in Thailand -- a prospect that alarms leaders in Bangkok, who are only just recovering from the impact of antigovernment riots in the city last April.
Thailand and Cambodia have withdrawn their ambassadors, and Thailand this week filed an extradition request to Cambodia to hand over Mr. Thaksin for a corruption conviction. Mr. Hun Sen's government refused, saying the charges against Mr. Thaksin are politically motivated and a direct result of the 2006 military coup. Thailand is now moving to cancel and oil and gas exploration deal with Cambodia and has raised the prospect of partially closing its border. Troop movements near the disputed temple sites are now a real possibility, analysts say.
Other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are struggling to contain their irritation with both sides ahead of their historic meeting with Mr. Obama Sunday on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum meeting in Singapore.
"We in Asean cannot afford to be seen as being so seriously divided," Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan said in a statement.
Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com
3 comments:
Thaksin miscalculated and Hun Sen backed the wrong horse.
ASEAN needs Thaksin. Abhisit is nothing, but a road block. He only cares for Thailand and himself.
Hun Sen may looked unrefined, uninformed, and diplomatically unpolished but the man is very astute and he is a brilliant strategist. With Thaskin's money and Hun Sen's strategy, this is going to be fun to watch.
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