By CHALIDA EKVITTHAYAVECHNUKUL
THE NATION
Trade between Thailand and Cambodia will fall at least 20-per-cent short of last year's US$2.13 billion (Bt70.64 billion), due to their roiling political conflict, a new study shows.
"Trade will decline 20 per cent, or roughly Bt14 billion, if the two countries respond to each other only by diplomatic means," Anusorn Tamajai, dean of Rangsit University's Faculty of Economics, said yesterday.
"But if the situation grows more intense until they end up closing the border, the trade loss will rise to 50 per cent. In the most serious scenario, in which the two countries go to war with each other, 90 per cent of the trade will disappear."
The study, "Economic and Investment Impact from the Thai-Cambodian Conflict and Some Solutions", focused on the opinions of Thai social leaders and businessmen.
Over the past two or three years, two-way trade has been growing 10-15 per cent annually, with many Thai companies expanding their investment there, particularly those in labour-intensive industries.
The loss of investment could range from Bt7 billion to Bt32.521 billion, depending on the severity of the situation.
However, it is difficult to evaluate the full loss from this conflict, especially in terms of poorer living standards and lost economic opportunities, he said.
Fifty-two per cent of survey respondents preferred the two governments to solve the conflict diplomatically and return the situation to normal as soon as possible.
Only 2 per cent thought Cambodia was wrong and that the Cambodian government should be responded to in a tit-for-tat manner.
Anusorn said both governments would do best to place their respective countries' welfare as their top priority and boost collaboration, in order to achieve the Asean Economic Community.
"Some of our respondents - and I, personally - thought PM Abhisit Vejjajiva should be brave enough to move Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya to another ministry. Or he should appoint other people to be responsible for Cambodian affairs, because Kasit has had a personal conflict with Cambodia for a long time now," he said.
The government should adopt measures like low-interest loans or tax deductions to support the companies that were affected by this conflict, Anusorn added.
"Trade will decline 20 per cent, or roughly Bt14 billion, if the two countries respond to each other only by diplomatic means," Anusorn Tamajai, dean of Rangsit University's Faculty of Economics, said yesterday.
"But if the situation grows more intense until they end up closing the border, the trade loss will rise to 50 per cent. In the most serious scenario, in which the two countries go to war with each other, 90 per cent of the trade will disappear."
The study, "Economic and Investment Impact from the Thai-Cambodian Conflict and Some Solutions", focused on the opinions of Thai social leaders and businessmen.
Over the past two or three years, two-way trade has been growing 10-15 per cent annually, with many Thai companies expanding their investment there, particularly those in labour-intensive industries.
The loss of investment could range from Bt7 billion to Bt32.521 billion, depending on the severity of the situation.
However, it is difficult to evaluate the full loss from this conflict, especially in terms of poorer living standards and lost economic opportunities, he said.
Fifty-two per cent of survey respondents preferred the two governments to solve the conflict diplomatically and return the situation to normal as soon as possible.
Only 2 per cent thought Cambodia was wrong and that the Cambodian government should be responded to in a tit-for-tat manner.
Anusorn said both governments would do best to place their respective countries' welfare as their top priority and boost collaboration, in order to achieve the Asean Economic Community.
"Some of our respondents - and I, personally - thought PM Abhisit Vejjajiva should be brave enough to move Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya to another ministry. Or he should appoint other people to be responsible for Cambodian affairs, because Kasit has had a personal conflict with Cambodia for a long time now," he said.
The government should adopt measures like low-interest loans or tax deductions to support the companies that were affected by this conflict, Anusorn added.
8 comments:
After, Abhisit the gay government is topple by our friends red shirts, the trade will increase to 100 percent. Everybody should be happy with the coming event, except Suthep the idiot, Abhisit the gay man.
The thai government have to close the border now and starting to build wall along the border.
Build a wall along the border, Thai will not able to separate the Khmer spirit.
The RGC should learn about this deliberately in order to weigths the economic impact between the two countries as Cambodia is the consumer maket while Thailand is manufacturer. If the border is closed, Cambodians and her people has many other choices and chances to access other products from many other countries. Today is the "era of globalization, and we are not dependency on only one source of product". The RGC must lead in closing of the border now with Thailand, rather than having warning from Thailand always...! By closing the border may give high economic growth and encouragment to Vietnam, but Cambodian people still have many choices to access the products from many other countries; including; S. Korea, China, Auz, NZ, USA, Malaysia, Indonesia and many other etc..
Or other alternative and economical option is to encourage the private investors to the plant in country and promote local made products. The private investors; include Thais businessmen if they wanted to run thier businesses in our country.
WTW! Let's go to war and get this thing finished once for all. Stop all the nonesense talks.
War, baby, war! This is how we resolve problem, in this day and age.
I thought you might be interested in the following video footage:
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=8807951
Enjoy!
CPP Traitor
@ 5:37 PM
The poverty in Cambodia got nothing to do with Ah Siam invading Cambodia property.
Siem has superiority complex!ahahha
Post a Comment