By Martin Petty
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may have survived longer than expected, but a year after taking office, with a political crisis still unresolved, the future of his fractious government remains uncertain.
The charismatic, Oxford and Eton-educated premier has succeeded in lifting the country out of its first recession in 11 years, but doubts remain as to whether he has the leadership and backing of his allies to steer Thailand out of trouble.
Opinion polls suggest the public remains lukewarm about his government's performance and Thai businesses have rated it 5.3 out of 10 for its handling of the economy, which Abhisit has championed as his coalition's biggest achievement.
But what continues to be the thorn in the side for Abhisit is coup-ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who has orchestrated a succession of mass "red shirt" protests by his mostly rural supporters, combined with attacks from the opposition Puea Thai party he backs from exile.
A provocative alliance with neighbouring Cambodia, which has refused to extradite Thaksin to serve a prison sentence for abusing his power, has also created a diplomatic row that has embarrassed the government and appears to have handed a public relations victory to the wily billionaire.
Some analysts say that despite showing restraint in dealing with the Cambodia spat, his efforts to silence, sideline and seek the extradition of the twice-elected Thaksin could be Abhisit's undoing.
"The government is giving (Thaksin) the valuable communication space to remind people of his accomplishments which further reinforces the perception of government incompetence," Suranand Vejjajiva, a former member of Thaksin's cabinet, now a political analyst, wrote in the Bangkok Post.
"The Cambodian fiasco is another example of a one-track foreign policy, sacrificing everything for the sake of one man."
In a television interview on Monday, Abhisit admitted he had been unable to tackle the political crisis, which he said would not be solved by another election, which the "red shirts" are demanding as part of what they say is a pro-democracy push.
UNEASY COALITION
Many analysts say the government's problems go beyond Thaksin. Bitter rivalry remains between Abhisit's Democrat Party and Bhumjai Thai, the second-biggest partner in an uneasy military-brokered coalition fraught with bickering and internal power struggles from the outset.
Also hanging over Abhisit's head is a bloody insurgency in the country's Muslim south, a corruption scandal in a healthcare project relating to the government's $42 billion stimulus package and the possibility of Democrat Party dissolution over alleged irregularities in a $7.8 million campaign donation in 2005.
Another setback is a court suspension of 65 of 76 projects, worth an estimated $8 billion, at the Map Ta Phut industrial estate, the world's eighth-biggest petrochemicals hub, over a failure to carry out health impact assessments (HIA).
The government has been blamed for failing to set up an independent body to oversee the HIA's in line with the 2007 constitution, and some industry experts say the process could drag on as long as a year, affecting profits, GDP and dealing a big blow to investor confidence.
All these issues are likely to be highlighted next month, when Thaksin's supporters plan a big push in parliament and in the streets to unseat Abhisit, who has had to cancel numerous visits to Thaksin strongholds in the North and northeast because of fears for his personal safety.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said the government had failed to seize the opportunity to win the support of Thailand's rural masses and was dismissive of the grievances of the "red shirts".
Massive stimulus measures, he said, were in place only because of the global economic crisis, to boost economic revival rather than address economic disparity and marginalisation of the rural poor.
"The stimulus measures were for the wrong reason and they have not captured hearts and minds," Thitinan said.
"The government rejects the red shirts as Thaksin lackeys and that's a reason Thailand can't find peace. Because of this marginalisation, there's no reconciliation.
"This is about more than Thaksin," he added. "If he vanished tomorrow, I doubt everything would return to normal."
(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
The charismatic, Oxford and Eton-educated premier has succeeded in lifting the country out of its first recession in 11 years, but doubts remain as to whether he has the leadership and backing of his allies to steer Thailand out of trouble.
Opinion polls suggest the public remains lukewarm about his government's performance and Thai businesses have rated it 5.3 out of 10 for its handling of the economy, which Abhisit has championed as his coalition's biggest achievement.
But what continues to be the thorn in the side for Abhisit is coup-ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who has orchestrated a succession of mass "red shirt" protests by his mostly rural supporters, combined with attacks from the opposition Puea Thai party he backs from exile.
A provocative alliance with neighbouring Cambodia, which has refused to extradite Thaksin to serve a prison sentence for abusing his power, has also created a diplomatic row that has embarrassed the government and appears to have handed a public relations victory to the wily billionaire.
Some analysts say that despite showing restraint in dealing with the Cambodia spat, his efforts to silence, sideline and seek the extradition of the twice-elected Thaksin could be Abhisit's undoing.
"The government is giving (Thaksin) the valuable communication space to remind people of his accomplishments which further reinforces the perception of government incompetence," Suranand Vejjajiva, a former member of Thaksin's cabinet, now a political analyst, wrote in the Bangkok Post.
"The Cambodian fiasco is another example of a one-track foreign policy, sacrificing everything for the sake of one man."
In a television interview on Monday, Abhisit admitted he had been unable to tackle the political crisis, which he said would not be solved by another election, which the "red shirts" are demanding as part of what they say is a pro-democracy push.
UNEASY COALITION
Many analysts say the government's problems go beyond Thaksin. Bitter rivalry remains between Abhisit's Democrat Party and Bhumjai Thai, the second-biggest partner in an uneasy military-brokered coalition fraught with bickering and internal power struggles from the outset.
Also hanging over Abhisit's head is a bloody insurgency in the country's Muslim south, a corruption scandal in a healthcare project relating to the government's $42 billion stimulus package and the possibility of Democrat Party dissolution over alleged irregularities in a $7.8 million campaign donation in 2005.
Another setback is a court suspension of 65 of 76 projects, worth an estimated $8 billion, at the Map Ta Phut industrial estate, the world's eighth-biggest petrochemicals hub, over a failure to carry out health impact assessments (HIA).
The government has been blamed for failing to set up an independent body to oversee the HIA's in line with the 2007 constitution, and some industry experts say the process could drag on as long as a year, affecting profits, GDP and dealing a big blow to investor confidence.
All these issues are likely to be highlighted next month, when Thaksin's supporters plan a big push in parliament and in the streets to unseat Abhisit, who has had to cancel numerous visits to Thaksin strongholds in the North and northeast because of fears for his personal safety.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said the government had failed to seize the opportunity to win the support of Thailand's rural masses and was dismissive of the grievances of the "red shirts".
Massive stimulus measures, he said, were in place only because of the global economic crisis, to boost economic revival rather than address economic disparity and marginalisation of the rural poor.
"The stimulus measures were for the wrong reason and they have not captured hearts and minds," Thitinan said.
"The government rejects the red shirts as Thaksin lackeys and that's a reason Thailand can't find peace. Because of this marginalisation, there's no reconciliation.
"This is about more than Thaksin," he added. "If he vanished tomorrow, I doubt everything would return to normal."
(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
11 comments:
Damned
Damned foolish Siam king go to hell better to use pupet Abpesit to defend your reign and your family. Baberious Siam king kiss ass ha ha
Dear Khmer Kandal and Khmer Krom fighters,
On 16th December, 2009 Mr. Hun Sen said in Cambodian public that Mr. Sam Rainsy will not be tolerated again this time, he must come in Cambodia and go to Prey Sar prison (sic), or he should ask Thai government to let him form a Khmer Exile Government at the Khmer-Thai territory along the Western border.
What Mr. Sam Rainsy ought to do is neither goes to Prey Sar prison nor goes to Vietnamese court in Hanoi. If, I were him I would negotiate with Mr. Abbhisit Vejjajiva the Thai prime minister to follow Mr. Hun Sen suggestion in forming a Khmer Exile Government at the Thai-Cambodia border. I can assure you there will be 100 of thousands Khmer inside Cambodia will come to join the new Khmer Exile Government like in 1979’s.
Khmer king Norodom Sihamoni appointed Thacksin Shinawatra as Hun Sen adviser. Therefore, Mr. Sam Rainsy can form a Khmer Exile Government along Khmer-Thai border too. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY WHICH CAN brings Vietnam and their slave Mr. Hun Sen/CPP to respect the 23rd October, 1991 Paris Peace Agreement by convent another international conference on Cambodia.
Mr. Sam Rainsy and his party non-violence policy towards Hun Sen/CPP will not and never be work and Vietnam does not want to understand what is democracy, what is human right and what is occupied Cambodia who was once upon the time fed, sheltered, supported Crocodile’s Vietnam to win over United States Arm forces in Vietnam War.
Regards,
Kulen Monorom
(The rice farmer’s son)
KM,
If you want to go to TorSu at the border, do it yourself. Sam Rainsy is not going to do that. He is not neak Torsu knong prey. He is a city boy :) And you are not going to see 100 thousand people come to join you at the border, this is very foolish.
In either way, Abhisit is in a deep shit. Just a matter of time. Thaksin and his Pue Thai party will win.
Don’t use Khmer Angkor King name to insult Khmer King.
Sam Rainsy gay can kiss Ahbuslhit ladyboy.
Most of Khmer in Cambodia support Hun Sen and if Khmer like you
you don’t support your own Khmer Khmer people, go
supporting Thai people and making war against your own Khmer people because
of your hatred Hun Sen.
If Hun Sen is Khmer why he takes lands from Khmers and gives those lands to Vietnameses ?
Why he want to jail Sam Raingsy when this man denounces that Vietnameses steal Khmer lands ?
more trouble ahead for thailand as everyone predicts. i don't understand why abhisit and kasit continue to making troubles? this is a complete leadership failure... i don't see anything positive comes out from this government this government... not for thailand and not for cambodia... so far it's been a lose-lose situation... no one wins...
I kind of agree with 5:14 Pm, because Hun Sen will never gives up his power. His fraudulance election by using Youns for his vote is very affective and he will continue to win it over and over. Having said that, war will cause many innocent Khmer lives, I hope we have a better solution.
We should not care about Thais ploblems.
As long as they fight each others they have no time to trouble us.
We cannot have peace with 4-5 millions of unemployed young Khmers.
Thailand must realize that Cambodia is a very good neighbour and never had done any harm to Thailand. Thailand should and must make friend with Cambodia. imagine Thailand having Vietnam as its neighbour then Thai will realize how good to have Cambodia as neighbour. to make peace with cambodia is to proctect Thailand from vietnam's invasion.
Post a Comment