The Samdach and the Pauper? (Photo: Reuters)Alternatives Watch – 20xii09
Op-Ed by Ung Bun Ang
Prime minister Hun Sen is perpetuating an international strategy for a regime change that has time and again brought disasters to Cambodia. He has involved Cambodia in a push for a new government in Thailand. He declares the relations with Thailand will only be normalised if prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is voted out of office.
However, Hun Sen’s beneficiary, deposed Thai prime minister Thaksin, may not be strong enough to regain power. Their footwork so far may look interesting, and make some Cambodians proud of their prime minister, but Thai opinion leaders believe the conflict has overall benefited the Abhisit government: its popularity has improved; Thaksin becomes a perfect decoy to divert attention from the government’s failure to revive the economy; and Thaksin can now be blamed for any economic fiasco.
Meanwhile, Thaksin has some serious personal problems. First, he may be burnt by the Dubai World financial mess that has recently flared up. Judging by his ego and eagerness to please the Dubai investment community and make his presence as a billionaire felt, his investments in real estate projects, financial, and debt instruments in Dubai must be sizeable. Thus, the Dubai trouble is likely to rattle Thaksin. And his other assets amounting to 76 billion bahts (US$2.28 billion) have been frozen by the Thai authority, waiting for a court verdict later this month that can remove his fortune forever.
Second, it is possible he will lose his residency in Dubai, which is an emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). He may be violating the UAE’s principle that allows nobody to use the UAE as a political base to attack other countries. And Thailand has actively sought the UAE’s assistance to bring Thaksin to serve a jail term for corruption, even though there is no extradition treaty between the two countries.
Thus, Thaksin could be broke and homeless, which is not an encouraging prospect for the man who has relied wholly on wealth to buy his way into power. Still, politics is such a fluid state of art that Thaksin may make a comeback – at least that is what Hun Sen is working on. Of course, Hun Sen can do more to help; he can follow his predecessors by allowing his friend to use Cambodian soil to launch his campaign to regain power.
In return for his effort, Hun Sen must expect rewards from Thaksin, who is right that “Everything depends on benefits”, similar to the way Vietnam has received from Hun Sen tributes for securing his power in Cambodia. And the benefit must be substantial for Hun Sen to be so committed to the Thaksin cause.
Nevertheless, while Hun Sen can enjoy the benefit, Cambodians may again begin to suffer, particularly when a Thaksin campaign from Cambodia provokes a Thai military response. Cambodian leaders in the past sixty years do not have a good record of ensuring their foreign friends they help will not, in return, plunge Cambodia into war and devastations before and after their successful regime change.
Ung Bun Ang
Quotable Quotes: “Alms given openly will be rewarded in secret.” - Anonymous. Chinese proverb.
However, Hun Sen’s beneficiary, deposed Thai prime minister Thaksin, may not be strong enough to regain power. Their footwork so far may look interesting, and make some Cambodians proud of their prime minister, but Thai opinion leaders believe the conflict has overall benefited the Abhisit government: its popularity has improved; Thaksin becomes a perfect decoy to divert attention from the government’s failure to revive the economy; and Thaksin can now be blamed for any economic fiasco.
Meanwhile, Thaksin has some serious personal problems. First, he may be burnt by the Dubai World financial mess that has recently flared up. Judging by his ego and eagerness to please the Dubai investment community and make his presence as a billionaire felt, his investments in real estate projects, financial, and debt instruments in Dubai must be sizeable. Thus, the Dubai trouble is likely to rattle Thaksin. And his other assets amounting to 76 billion bahts (US$2.28 billion) have been frozen by the Thai authority, waiting for a court verdict later this month that can remove his fortune forever.
Second, it is possible he will lose his residency in Dubai, which is an emirate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). He may be violating the UAE’s principle that allows nobody to use the UAE as a political base to attack other countries. And Thailand has actively sought the UAE’s assistance to bring Thaksin to serve a jail term for corruption, even though there is no extradition treaty between the two countries.
Thus, Thaksin could be broke and homeless, which is not an encouraging prospect for the man who has relied wholly on wealth to buy his way into power. Still, politics is such a fluid state of art that Thaksin may make a comeback – at least that is what Hun Sen is working on. Of course, Hun Sen can do more to help; he can follow his predecessors by allowing his friend to use Cambodian soil to launch his campaign to regain power.
In return for his effort, Hun Sen must expect rewards from Thaksin, who is right that “Everything depends on benefits”, similar to the way Vietnam has received from Hun Sen tributes for securing his power in Cambodia. And the benefit must be substantial for Hun Sen to be so committed to the Thaksin cause.
Nevertheless, while Hun Sen can enjoy the benefit, Cambodians may again begin to suffer, particularly when a Thaksin campaign from Cambodia provokes a Thai military response. Cambodian leaders in the past sixty years do not have a good record of ensuring their foreign friends they help will not, in return, plunge Cambodia into war and devastations before and after their successful regime change.
Ung Bun Ang
Quotable Quotes: “Alms given openly will be rewarded in secret.” - Anonymous. Chinese proverb.
8 comments:
Thaksin could not paye the long distance call fees from Dubai anymore. That why he have to come to Cambodia to get closed to his people.
Hun Sen is right, Taksin should be Prime minister, Apisit should resign because Apisit steals sit by Coup d'Etat from Taksin.
And Hun Sen should also resign because he steals also his sit from Ranarith by Coup d'Etat.
When it comes to war I'm not sure Cambodia will win due to the reasons:
1-Thai military superiority in terms of weapons,aircraft, navy, tanks.
2 It proved in the past khmer only good in fighting each others! the lattest Khmer rouges defeated lon nol but when confront with viets they run for life.
3 khmers always boasted themselves the race of Angkor era fighters never loose and they always caught by surprise when the foreigners beat them and if Khmers were really strong as they claim themselves, Cambodia would not Shrink from big empire into small state and perhaps vanished from the map due to the neighbors encroachment. Vietnamese used the same tactics in the past...rather than pushing in their military, they used people to take over Cambodia silently.
For those pro the government, do not curse me if you don't agree! everybody is entitled to their own opinion
4:00 pm As I recall, sometime in 1952, Thais overran preah vihear, Khmers could not take it back until the matter was taken to International court, that is the problem when you underestimate the enemies!
1952 should read 1962!
Ah Sat darichhan Hun Sen only love foreigner, he doesn't love his own people like Sam Rainsy.
God bless Sam Rainsy who risk his own life to protect is own people.
Death to Evil Ah Hun Sen sat derichhan. Hell is open door for you!
Every one, please help pray to have Ah sat derichhan Hun Sen speed up his way to hell.
The siam defeated the French in the 19th c and in 1942. The siam had modernisedtheir army longer when Khmer royals still looked like monkeys being carried in hammocks by slaves.
Just watch and see who will win at the end. Thaksin's Pue Thai party will win the next election. Thai and Cambodia will have good relation again.
If Abhisit government decide to use the military, the former Khmer Rouge soldiers along the border will take care of them. Cambodia has modern weapons from China. They even have weapon that can shoot down Thai F16 if they dare to cross into Cambodian air space.
Thai may have more weapon, but they are chicken. Their last war with Lao was defeated only when Lao shot down one of their helicopter gunship. They retreat and declare cease fire.
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