By Martin Petty
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Protesters and parliamentarians allied with exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra are planning a big push to bring down Thailand's government next month as the ousted billionaire seeks to wrestle back power.
The fugitive tycoon's "red shirt" demonstrators are planning a prolonged anti-government rally while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party prepares for a censure debate to exploit cracks in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's year-old coalition.
WHY NOW?
Analysts say Thaksin wants to keep up the momentum to try to unseat the government while its popularity remains low. The censure debate and the rally may run simultaneously as a big show of strength for the pro-Thaksin movement, which draws its support mainly from the rural poor.
Just as important, perhaps, a court verdict is due on whether to confiscate 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion) of the Shinawatra family's assets, which prosecutors say is "abnormal wealth" accrued while he was in office. Thaksin might feel he stands a better chance of getting back his fortune under a more sympathetic government.
He may also be concerned that the government has an opportunity to consolidate its support as the economy rebounds, helped by stimulus projects that are widely seen as populist measures to win over traditional Thaksin voters.
WHAT ARE THE "RED SHIRTS" PLANNING?
The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) wants parliament dissolved and a snap election held, arguing the current government came to power undemocratically.
It has held back on announcing its full plans for next month, including when, where and for how long it will protest, probably to catch the government off guard. It is likely Abhisit will invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) to allow the military to control the rally and stop it spreading to other parts of the capital.
IS THERE A THREAT OF UNREST?
Yes. Tension remains high and many analysts and political commentators believe violent confrontations could take place, either inspired by frustrated "red shirts" or orchestrated by outside agents keen to create unrest.
The last six UDD rallies were peaceful but did little to shake the government unlike violent street protests in April, which many people thought would lead to Abhisit's resignation.
Markets have reflected fears of the impending protests. Thai stock prices fell when plans were announced for prolonged city-wide protests in December but rose on news of their postponement.
Several rating agencies downgraded Thailand from stable to negative after the UDD riots in April, the country's worst violence in 17 years.
WHO WILL BE TARGETED IN THE CENSURE DEBATE?
Abhisit is likely to escape unharmed from the televised parliamentary showdown in late January or early February but Puea Thai will go all out to destabilise and discredit his fragile government. The debate might lead to resignations or a cabinet reshuffle, which could cause more disunity in the coalition.
The opposition says the main target will be controversial former diplomat Kasit Piromya, who was appointed Foreign Minister a year ago, soon after he appeared on stage during a week-long airport occupation by "yellow shirt" anti-Thaksin demonstrators that helped undermine an elected pro-Thaksin government.
Kasit is also under fire for his handling of a much-publicised diplomatic row with Cambodia involving Thaksin, which has embarrassed the government and is showing no sign of being resolved.
Also targeted will be ministers linked to a corruption scandal involving a healthcare scheme launched as part of the government's $42 billion economic stimulus package.
Puea Thai might also call for the dissolution of Abhisit's Democrat Party over irregularities stemming from a $7.8 million election campaign donation in 2005 from cement manufacturer TPI Polene.
(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
The fugitive tycoon's "red shirt" demonstrators are planning a prolonged anti-government rally while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party prepares for a censure debate to exploit cracks in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's year-old coalition.
WHY NOW?
Analysts say Thaksin wants to keep up the momentum to try to unseat the government while its popularity remains low. The censure debate and the rally may run simultaneously as a big show of strength for the pro-Thaksin movement, which draws its support mainly from the rural poor.
Just as important, perhaps, a court verdict is due on whether to confiscate 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion) of the Shinawatra family's assets, which prosecutors say is "abnormal wealth" accrued while he was in office. Thaksin might feel he stands a better chance of getting back his fortune under a more sympathetic government.
He may also be concerned that the government has an opportunity to consolidate its support as the economy rebounds, helped by stimulus projects that are widely seen as populist measures to win over traditional Thaksin voters.
WHAT ARE THE "RED SHIRTS" PLANNING?
The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) wants parliament dissolved and a snap election held, arguing the current government came to power undemocratically.
It has held back on announcing its full plans for next month, including when, where and for how long it will protest, probably to catch the government off guard. It is likely Abhisit will invoke the Internal Security Act (ISA) to allow the military to control the rally and stop it spreading to other parts of the capital.
IS THERE A THREAT OF UNREST?
Yes. Tension remains high and many analysts and political commentators believe violent confrontations could take place, either inspired by frustrated "red shirts" or orchestrated by outside agents keen to create unrest.
The last six UDD rallies were peaceful but did little to shake the government unlike violent street protests in April, which many people thought would lead to Abhisit's resignation.
Markets have reflected fears of the impending protests. Thai stock prices fell when plans were announced for prolonged city-wide protests in December but rose on news of their postponement.
Several rating agencies downgraded Thailand from stable to negative after the UDD riots in April, the country's worst violence in 17 years.
WHO WILL BE TARGETED IN THE CENSURE DEBATE?
Abhisit is likely to escape unharmed from the televised parliamentary showdown in late January or early February but Puea Thai will go all out to destabilise and discredit his fragile government. The debate might lead to resignations or a cabinet reshuffle, which could cause more disunity in the coalition.
The opposition says the main target will be controversial former diplomat Kasit Piromya, who was appointed Foreign Minister a year ago, soon after he appeared on stage during a week-long airport occupation by "yellow shirt" anti-Thaksin demonstrators that helped undermine an elected pro-Thaksin government.
Kasit is also under fire for his handling of a much-publicised diplomatic row with Cambodia involving Thaksin, which has embarrassed the government and is showing no sign of being resolved.
Also targeted will be ministers linked to a corruption scandal involving a healthcare scheme launched as part of the government's $42 billion economic stimulus package.
Puea Thai might also call for the dissolution of Abhisit's Democrat Party over irregularities stemming from a $7.8 million election campaign donation in 2005 from cement manufacturer TPI Polene.
(Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)
7 comments:
Dear Khmer Kandal and Khmer Krom fighters,
On 16th December, 2009 Mr. Hun Sen said in Cambodian public that Mr. Sam Rainsy will not be tolerated again this time, he must come in Cambodia and go to Prey Sar prison (sic), or he should ask Thai government to let him form a Khmer Exile Government at the Khmer-Thai territory along the Western border.
What Mr. Sam Rainsy ought to do is neither goes to Prey Sar prison nor goes to Vietnamese court in Hanoi. If, I were him I would negotiate with Mr. Abbhisit Vejjajiva the Thai prime minister to follow Mr. Hun Sen suggestion in forming a Khmer Exile Government at the Thai-Cambodia border. I can assure you there will be 100 of thousands Khmer inside Cambodia will come to join the new Khmer Exile Government like in 1979’s.
Khmer king Norodom Sihamoni appointed Thacksin Shinawatra as Hun Sen adviser. Therefore, Mr. Sam Rainsy can form a Khmer Exile Government along Khmer-Thai border too. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY WHICH CAN brings Vietnam and their slave Mr. Hun Sen/CPP to respect the 23rd October, 1991 Paris Peace Agreement by convent another international conference on Cambodia.
Mr. Sam Rainsy and his party non-violence policy towards Hun Sen/CPP will not and never be work and Vietnam does not want to understand what is democracy, what is human right and what is occupied Cambodia who was once upon the time fed, sheltered, supported Crocodile’s Vietnam to win over United States Arm forces in Vietnam War.
Regards,
Kulen Monorom
(The rice farmer’s son)
The Khmer PM now is sic with his power installed by Viet and he and his clan are very happy to share our land to their master Viet. During Chhey Chetha II reign, the Viet had please the Khmer king at the time to tain their troops in our territory because the China was treated them, years later it has no fight with China then the Khmer king clamed them to return back to north but they said 'You gave this siol to us why we must go back' => Khmer lost their soil, in Sihanouk reign he allowed Vietcon, Nort Viet installed their troops deep in Cambodian territory, till 1970 he wanted push back but no return and after that Gen. Lon Nol must pushed them back => they fight bached with Gen. Lon Nol and Sihanouk himself go to their site, how Gen. Lon Nol winned them ?. During Pol Pot regime Viet wanted controll Khmer Rouges but no chance because they were Khmer nationalists, no gave up and fight, then Khmer Rouges lost the war because of their killing fields. .....
At the present, the Viet please their installed regime more and more Cambodian territory not trainning (no one knew about the activity in this case) but chauchuc plantation deep in Cambodia soil and fast 5 millions Viet people living irligal here and what next ..... (Are they believing those return back home very esy, NO Chance)
=> real poor Khmers have no land to live and CPP rich people can live in their land but must first transfer into Viet and the real khmer CPP rich people must escape from Cambodia to live oversea. That is the destiny for Khmer future. And what is up with Khmer king? No EXIST MORE => best result.
Angkor spirit
Abhisit is in a deep shit. He is like a lamb waiting for slaughter. Just a matter of time.
Change would come from inside of CPP.
You belive that Sok An or Hor Namhong are not tired to receive order from Hun Sen ?
Don’t use Khmer Angkor King name to insult Khmer King.
Sam Rainsy gay can kiss Ahbuslhit ladyboy.
Most of Khmer in Cambodia support Hun Sen and if Khmer like you
you don’t support your own Khmer Khmer people, go
supporting Thai people and making war against your own Khmer people because
of your hatred Hun Sen.
What is Thais are different from Khmers.
Apisit becomes PM from Coup d'Etat and he must down.
Hun Sen becomes PM also from Coup d'Etat.
Fuck you Thais.
That is your turn to kill eachother.
Don't worry, Cambodia will create a refugees camps for you.
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