A tale of two countries locked in a stalemate

Cambodia and Thailand - at loggerheads for months - are unlikely to solve their differences in a hurry

1/01/2010
Saritdet Marukatat
Bangkok Post

All eyes will continue to be on the Thai border with Cambodia this year, and fingers will remain crossed that the spat that has blighted relations between Bangkok and Phnom Penh for so many months can now come to a peaceful end.

The government has tried not to exacerbate matters, despite the clear indication from Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that he is not in the mood to deal with the Democrat Party-led coalition administration.

The Thai response has been equally clear. Bangkok wants to contain the conflict to the two governments. It has no desire to see it expand to defence ties and the border areas.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, his foreign minister Kasit Piromya and other members of the cabinet saw their rating rise in opinion polls conducted shortly after Thailand decided in November to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Cambodia by recalling its ambassador to Phnom Penh, Prasas Prasaswinitchai, and take measures to try to void the memorandum of understanding on maritime boundary settlement and joint cooperation in the Gulf of Thailand.

The decision was in response to Hun Sen's appointment of Thaksin Shinawatra as his personal adviser and economics adviser to his government and criticisms he made in October of the Thai judicial process regarding Thaksin's conviction for corruption and abuse of authority in connection with a Ratchadaphisek land deal.

"All problems with Cambodia started with Thaksin and Hun Sen's interference in the internal affairs of Thailand," said Surachai Sirikrai, an analyst at Thammasat University.

But as Puangthong Pawakapan, an analyst at Chulalongkorn University, told a forum, the approval ratings mean nothing. They were conducted at a time of rising nationalist sentiment against Cambodia.

Not everybody at the Foreign Affairs Ministry and in government are behind Mr Kasit's handling of the row with Cambodia.

Some feel he went too far and too soon with his decision to downgrade relations with Phnom Penh. The move has left the country without any cards to keep close to its chest in dealing with Cambodia. The ministry has overplayed its hand. It will now be very difficult to reach a return to normalcy without some loss of face for either Bangkok or Phnom Penh, or perhaps both.

There were many more options to exercise before recalling the ambassador, said one official requesting anonymity. "Thailand has fallen into its own trap," he said.

The conflict has also had regional implications. Other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its partners are praying for a quick solution.

Division among the 10 Asean members as a result of the souring of ties could affect the grouping's ambitious plans to build the region into the Asean Community in 2015, and obstruct the progress on realising the even grander vision of closer ties between Southeast Asia and the Asian powerhouses of China, Japan and South Korea to create an East Asia Community.

Thammasat University's Mr Surachai said it would it be difficult for Bangkok and Phnom Penh to settle their differences without some form of outside help given their reluctance to show any sign of compromise.

If the conflict drags on, it could fall to another member of Asean or even the entire group to intervene to help sort things out, he said.

There is also the possibility the east Asian countries, China in particular, might play a part in mediating between the two countries.

One official expressed concern that worsening ties with Cambodia could also this year influence Bangkok's relations with Laos, as Vientiane is a close ally of Phnom Penh as well as Vietnam.

"It remains to be seen if there will be a possible spill-over," the official said.

Thailand's relations with its western neighbour, Burma, are also not the smoothest. The ruling State Peace and Development Council was annoyed at Thailand's push for other Asean members to get behind its call, as the Asean chairman last year, for Burma to release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The call for the release of the National League for Democracy leader is a trademark issue with the Democrats as part of the human rights plank of their foreign policy. That has resulted in some distance from Southeast Asian governments with records of human rights violations like Burma.

"Thai foreign policy is in line with the United States," Mr Surachai said.

"But the new United States administration has overhauled its policy towards Burma. Unlike his predecessor George W Bush, who rejected talks with the ruling Burmese junta, US President Barack Obama now uses both talks and economic pressure with the ruling Burmese regime.

"The change in Washington could force Thailand to adjust its foreign policy on Burma with more flexibility on human rights conditions."

At least Mr Abhisit enters the new year with warm relations with Malaysia. Pledges from his Malaysian counterpart Najib Razak at their meeting in Bangkok last month to support the Thai policy on the lower South with no interference from Kuala Lumpur gives Thailand more confidence in its campaign to end the southern insurgency.

Malaysia was unhappy with the tit-for-tat measures taken by Thaksin when he was prime minister in dealing with the southern separatists.

Mr Najib stressed the use of "peaceful means" in exchange for Malaysia's support.

Thailand needs backing from Kuala Lumpur to block insurgents from hiding in Malaysia, the exchange of intelligence information and close border patrols among other cooperation.

"What happens to Thailand and Malaysia now shows a maturity in their bilateral relations," Mr Surachai said.