Thaksin leading de facto government in exile

January 19, 2010
By Sopon Onkgara
The Nation

AS JUDGEMENT DAY for the Supreme Court to rule on the status of Thaksin Shinawatra's frozen assets, worth Bt76 billion, draws near, the fugitive former premier intensifies his campaign to topple the Abhisit government and reclaim political power by any means.

Those means and strategies include unrelenting campaigns by the red shirts, pestering Thaksin's adversaries; heckling in the House; and other subversive methods by militia comprising retired military generals, who are practically political soldiers of fortune.

Let's define the current status of Thaksin and his struggle to regain power. In a recent video link for a pep talk to his red shirts, the disgraced billionaire was seen together with two lieutenants - ex-ministers Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Jakrapob Penkair - who are supposed to be the chief strategists in exile.

What did such display on the video link tell us? An unmistakable message is that Thaksin, in practice and reality, has already formed a government in exile to fulfill his drive to regain power. However, he has yet to formalise its establishment for the world to recognise his struggle.

Thaksin knows that he cannot announce a formal government in exile due to his lack of credibility and image problems. He cannot enter the US, the EU, or most countries in Asia and the Pacific, including Australia and New Zealand. Other areas off-limits include Eastern Europe.

Currently he can visit Middle East countries, using Dubai as his main base, while doing some business in Africa, where he is said to have interests in diamond and gold-mining. This has not been independently verified; we have only his claims to rely on.

If he were to formally set up a government in exile, it would represent an open battle with the Abhisit administration. That would endanger the red shirts, the militia, and whoever openly supports Thaksin's attempt to topple the government. Such a destructive, illegal campaign could indeed be termed as treason.

The government is aware that Thaksin intends to win the impending so-called ultimate showdown. February 26 is the judgement day, and the fugitive will unleash all available resources and destructive power to oust the government and protect his assets. Losing the battle will lead to complicated and prolonged consequences for himself, his family members, and those who are loyal to him and his money.

But Thaksin must also limit his campaign because he knows that he is an international pariah, and as such it would certainly be hard for civilised countries to recognise a government in exile. Even now, he has enough trouble just prolonging his refuge in Dubai, while grudgingly having to maintain a low profile.

In the long term, the United Arab Emirates will take away the welcome mat, now that the Thai Foreign Ministry wants to complete an extradition treaty with the sheikhdom as soon as possible. Thus, Thaksin will have to find another place of refuge.

As of now, what is left to him as a Thai national could be just his driving licence. His ID card, if expired, cannot be renewed outside the country. And this is not to mention the fact that he cannot even set foot on Thai sovereign soil at any Thai embassy.

Thaksin's passports, known to have been issued by Montenegro and Nicaragua, do not bear his original name. He has become a person almost without roots. It is rumoured that he has become a citizen of Cambodia, due to his advisory role for the government there and his role as a personal adviser to Prime Minister Hun Sen, the foul-mouthed tyrant.

If not already in Cambodia, Thaksin is expected there soon, to draw the final strategy and battle plan for his combined forces of militia, hired goons and those seeking money - amidst news that his financial resources are dwindling, which he denies.

It will be a revolution, he asserts. But we all know that he is fighting only for his money and to save his own neck. If opportunities exist, remotely or otherwise, he will part with funds for another political investment to regain power. In that case, the nation will remain in peril as long as his uncontained sinister ambition remains alive.

If Abhisit and his self-serving coalition partners don't get the picture, the people will certainly be better prepared for the eventualities if Thaksin's bite this time is more harmful than his repeated barks.