In exile ... Thaksin Shinawatra is prominent in Thai politics through messages from his bases in Dubai and Cambodia. Photo: AFPFebruary 25, 2010
The Sydney Morning Herald
Ousted in 2006, Thaksin Shinawatra still divides Thailand, writes Ben Doherty.
IT HAS been branded ''D-Day'' and ''the Final Showdown'', but the decision by a Thai court tomorrow on whether the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra can keep nearly $2.5 billion in assets seized by the government is unlikely to resolve the political schism which divides Thailand. Instead, it is likely to deepen it and could trigger new waves of violence.
Bangkok is in virtual lockdown in anticipation of tomorrow's judgment, when the Supreme Court will rule whether Thaksin, the deposed former PM still loved by Thailand's rural poor but despised by the Bangkok elite, can have all, some or none of his seized assets back.
Thousands of soldiers and police are already in position at crucial posts across Bangkok and at entrances to the capital since busloads of protesters from the Thaksin-supporting north and north-east of the country are expected to be turned around at the city limits.
The nine judges involved in the case have been given round-the-clock security, and a handful of foreign governments, including Australia, has issued travel warnings to Thailand, and the capital in particular.
Already one home-made bomb has exploded near Government House and another was found and defused near the Supreme Court before it could be detonated.
At stake is 76 billion baht ($2.55 billion) in cash, shares and property which once belonged to Thaksin, and which his critics argue he accumulated largely through executing policies which benefited his family company, Shin Corp, including government-sanctioned loans to pariah state Burma.
Thaksin, forced from power by a 2006 military-led coup, fled into exile ahead of a 2008 conflict-of-interest conviction that saw him sentenced to two years' jail. But he looms large still in Thai politics via video messages, Twitter and his blog, from overseas bases in Dubai and Cambodia.
By radio he said this week he was willing to return to Thailand to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the dispute, but only in return for a blanket pardon. ''I can still benefit my country very much without being prime minister,'' he said. The government rejected the proposal.
Almost all commentators are predicting Thaksin will be found guilty of behaving corruptly.
''I have no doubt there will be a guilty verdict. It's just a matter of how much of his assets will be taken away,'' Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said.
A guilty verdict, stripping Thaksin of some or all of his assets, will be seen as vindication of the coup which forced him from power.
''But if they acquit him, and return all his money, they would be denying and negating everything that has stood in Thai politics since the military coup,'' Dr Thitinan said.
Rumours circulating Bangkok suggest the court may arrive at a decision which allows Thaksin to keep those assets earned before he became leader, while stripping him of the wealth he accumulated while in office.
But even a compromise decision from the court, instead of pleasing everybody, is likely to please nobody.
''Thaksin is someone who doesn't quit. If he gets some money back, he will not be satisfied until he gets everything back, and then he will want the power back. His enemies will not be satisfied if he gets anything back. For them, this is the final act of Thaksin's political decapitation,'' Dr Thitinan said.
Sustained protests could further damage the economy and weaken the coalition government headed by Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Thaksin supporter Veera Musigapong has said the red-shirts will continue ''fighting against dictatorship'' regardless of the outcome of the case.
''Our political gatherings will continue, according to our plan to bring back democracy and to overthrow the current government,'' he said.
Thaksin critic Suriyasai Katasila said the conflict would not die with the court's decision. ''Thaksin will carry out his revenge against his opponents.''
IT HAS been branded ''D-Day'' and ''the Final Showdown'', but the decision by a Thai court tomorrow on whether the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra can keep nearly $2.5 billion in assets seized by the government is unlikely to resolve the political schism which divides Thailand. Instead, it is likely to deepen it and could trigger new waves of violence.
Bangkok is in virtual lockdown in anticipation of tomorrow's judgment, when the Supreme Court will rule whether Thaksin, the deposed former PM still loved by Thailand's rural poor but despised by the Bangkok elite, can have all, some or none of his seized assets back.
Thousands of soldiers and police are already in position at crucial posts across Bangkok and at entrances to the capital since busloads of protesters from the Thaksin-supporting north and north-east of the country are expected to be turned around at the city limits.
The nine judges involved in the case have been given round-the-clock security, and a handful of foreign governments, including Australia, has issued travel warnings to Thailand, and the capital in particular.
Already one home-made bomb has exploded near Government House and another was found and defused near the Supreme Court before it could be detonated.
At stake is 76 billion baht ($2.55 billion) in cash, shares and property which once belonged to Thaksin, and which his critics argue he accumulated largely through executing policies which benefited his family company, Shin Corp, including government-sanctioned loans to pariah state Burma.
Thaksin, forced from power by a 2006 military-led coup, fled into exile ahead of a 2008 conflict-of-interest conviction that saw him sentenced to two years' jail. But he looms large still in Thai politics via video messages, Twitter and his blog, from overseas bases in Dubai and Cambodia.
By radio he said this week he was willing to return to Thailand to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the dispute, but only in return for a blanket pardon. ''I can still benefit my country very much without being prime minister,'' he said. The government rejected the proposal.
Almost all commentators are predicting Thaksin will be found guilty of behaving corruptly.
''I have no doubt there will be a guilty verdict. It's just a matter of how much of his assets will be taken away,'' Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said.
A guilty verdict, stripping Thaksin of some or all of his assets, will be seen as vindication of the coup which forced him from power.
''But if they acquit him, and return all his money, they would be denying and negating everything that has stood in Thai politics since the military coup,'' Dr Thitinan said.
Rumours circulating Bangkok suggest the court may arrive at a decision which allows Thaksin to keep those assets earned before he became leader, while stripping him of the wealth he accumulated while in office.
But even a compromise decision from the court, instead of pleasing everybody, is likely to please nobody.
''Thaksin is someone who doesn't quit. If he gets some money back, he will not be satisfied until he gets everything back, and then he will want the power back. His enemies will not be satisfied if he gets anything back. For them, this is the final act of Thaksin's political decapitation,'' Dr Thitinan said.
Sustained protests could further damage the economy and weaken the coalition government headed by Abhisit Vejjajiva.
Thaksin supporter Veera Musigapong has said the red-shirts will continue ''fighting against dictatorship'' regardless of the outcome of the case.
''Our political gatherings will continue, according to our plan to bring back democracy and to overthrow the current government,'' he said.
Thaksin critic Suriyasai Katasila said the conflict would not die with the court's decision. ''Thaksin will carry out his revenge against his opponents.''
7 comments:
you see CPP policy is clear, blind educated people with money and power. Look at Radio France International, this radio has already sell their head to CPP.
We don't need to wait for court verdict about Thaksin Shinawatra case, on his asset frozen, which we are knew the result already under Abhisit Vejjajiva control the court, it means winner take all.
Thaksin's supporter
in case civil war explode in thailand, khmer war is inevitable. khmer pple want hunsen's head and clean the country for free and democracy but the only one thing that khmer pple cannot get from hunsen is his left eyeball.
hun sen is not only used by vietcons but also by china, thaksin and abhisit
die to abhishit, long live thaishit
siamese always look down and lead hostility barbaric acts against poor and weak people no matter who they are
Thai court is kangaroo court, just the same as Yuon court in Cambodia.
Cambodia needs a new leader if Rainsy cannot be, then I will vote for Thaksin.
THAKSIN, OUR NEW CAMBODIA'S PRIME MINISTER. DEATH TO AH YUON AND AH HUN SEN CRONIES.
VIVA PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN!!!!!
if thaksin will be candidate for the nex elect, i too will not thaksin
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