By SAMEER MOHINDRU
The Wall Street Journal
SINGAPORE -- An El Nino climate event is likely to affect the upcoming spring rice harvest in Southeast Asia, and if it persists, it could adversely affect the much bigger 2010 autumn crop as well, a senior scientist at the International Rice Research Institute said Wednesday.
El Nino conditions are typically associated with above average sea temperatures and usually but not always linked with below normal rainfall in many areas of the Asia-Pacific region. Due to the current El Nino, many parts of southeast Asia are currently witnessing unusually dry weather, sparking concerns about the upcoming harvest and summer plantings.
"The dry season rice harvest in Southeast Asia during April and May is expected to be affected by El Nino, and this can push up prices," Bas Bouman said at an international seminar here.
Close to 30% of the rice production in Southeast Asia is from the spring harvest.
Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface temperatures are cooling toward more average or neutral values, but will likely remain above thresholds for an El Nino climate episode until around June and July, Australia's weather bureau said Tuesday.
"If this is true, it can (adversely) affect the next crop in Thailand and India by delaying plantings," Mr. Bouman said.
Other countries such as Laos and Cambodia are heavily dependent on rains for their rice production, he said.
The forecast made last year for the El Nino was quite accurate, and farmlands across Asia including India, the Philippines and Yunnan province in China were affected, he said.
However, there wasn't any major surge in prices because supplies were ample, he said.
Two years ago, when supplies were tight, most governments insisted on replenishing the stocks, Mr. Bouman said.
Prices of rice had shot up to record high close to $1,000 a metric ton in the first half of 2008. In the Philippines rice import tender in mid-December 2009, offers were around $650-$750/ton for mostly Vietnamese rice. Cheaper quality rice from Myanmar was recently sold to Bangladesh at $395/ton on a cost-and-freight basis.
Thailand recently decided not to go ahead with a planned sale of rice from its inventories because the bid prices were considered too low.
The postponement of the sales indicates that government and traders expect prices to go up again, mainly due to El Nino, Mr. Bouman said.
Write to Sameer Mohindru at sameer.mohindru@dowjones.com.
El Nino conditions are typically associated with above average sea temperatures and usually but not always linked with below normal rainfall in many areas of the Asia-Pacific region. Due to the current El Nino, many parts of southeast Asia are currently witnessing unusually dry weather, sparking concerns about the upcoming harvest and summer plantings.
"The dry season rice harvest in Southeast Asia during April and May is expected to be affected by El Nino, and this can push up prices," Bas Bouman said at an international seminar here.
Close to 30% of the rice production in Southeast Asia is from the spring harvest.
Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface temperatures are cooling toward more average or neutral values, but will likely remain above thresholds for an El Nino climate episode until around June and July, Australia's weather bureau said Tuesday.
"If this is true, it can (adversely) affect the next crop in Thailand and India by delaying plantings," Mr. Bouman said.
Other countries such as Laos and Cambodia are heavily dependent on rains for their rice production, he said.
The forecast made last year for the El Nino was quite accurate, and farmlands across Asia including India, the Philippines and Yunnan province in China were affected, he said.
However, there wasn't any major surge in prices because supplies were ample, he said.
Two years ago, when supplies were tight, most governments insisted on replenishing the stocks, Mr. Bouman said.
Prices of rice had shot up to record high close to $1,000 a metric ton in the first half of 2008. In the Philippines rice import tender in mid-December 2009, offers were around $650-$750/ton for mostly Vietnamese rice. Cheaper quality rice from Myanmar was recently sold to Bangladesh at $395/ton on a cost-and-freight basis.
Thailand recently decided not to go ahead with a planned sale of rice from its inventories because the bid prices were considered too low.
The postponement of the sales indicates that government and traders expect prices to go up again, mainly due to El Nino, Mr. Bouman said.
Write to Sameer Mohindru at sameer.mohindru@dowjones.com.
1 comment:
That earthquake took place in China about a year ago? Before the quake happen, the common people took video of strange clouds over the region.
And the Chinese government suspected the quake was caused by an Environmental Warfare. The suspects could been the US or Russia or other country that has the technology to induce an earthquake at will by the use of HAARP electromagnetic frequency and chemtrail clouds.
Chemtrail clouds is being use to control weather pattern all over the world. More than that, there are all kinds of poison chemicals put into the chemical clouds when settle to the ground people will breath in whatever chemicals are in the clouds to make them sick and die to reduce the world population. Yeah, I am an alarmist and I fear we are being kill by what we don't know.
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