Wednesday, April 07, 2010

China faces its biggest foe

Apr 8, 2010
By Kent Ewing
Asia Times (Hong Kong)


HONG KONG - The Chinese leadership, long obsessed with snuffing out social unrest whenever and wherever it occurs, has encountered a foe that cannot be defeated by its four trillion yuan (US$586 billion) economic stimulus package, its Great Firewall of Internet censorship or even brute force: Mother Nature.

As the nation celebrates the miraculous rescue of 115 miners trapped for eight days in one of the country's notoriously dangerous coal mines in northern Shanxi province, the worst drought in a century continues to seize China's southwest. While state-owned China Central Television trumpeted the heroic rescue effort and provided blanket coverage, the head of drought relief in China last week found himself denying media reports of abandoned villages and an exodus of refugees from stricken areas.

"I don't think there are any refugees," said Liu Ning, secretary general of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

But the reports continue, and things could get a lot worse if the hoped-for rainy season does not arrive next month. At least 22 million people and 7.4 million hectares of farmland are affected by the drought in the provinces of Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Sichuan and in the sprawling municipality of Chongqing. Moreover, Liu, who is also vice minister of water resources, has admitted that three northern provinces - Shanxi, Hebei and Gansu - have also been hit by drought, as has the autonomous region of Ningxia. That means the livelihoods of millions more farmers are at risk, and that drinking water is becoming an increasingly precious commodity.

As in past disasters, the central government has responded to the crisis by opening its coffers and mobilizing the People's Liberation Army, so far spending 155 million yuan to combat the drought and dispatching 260,000 troops to deliver water and to help dig wells. In addition, a relocation plan is in the works if the drought continues through next month.

Still, angry villagers are likely to regard such measures as too little, too late. Mother Nature may be the cause of their misery, but a woeful lack of government planning seems to have exacerbated it.

Even before the drought, more than half of China's 1.3 billion people did not have access to clean water, causing nearly 200 million unnecessary illnesses annually and 60,000 premature deaths. Although China has 22% of the world's population and only 7% of its fresh water - much of that polluted during the past 30 years of breakneck economic growth - planning for disasters like this was apparently kept on the back burner.

However, the central government has gone full speed ahead with lavishly expensive water projects such as Three Gorges Dam (US$26.4 billion) and the South-North Water Diversion Project (US$17.6 billion) that have brought little benefit to average villagers. Indeed, China's excessive dam-building is likely making the drought worse for many of them, since it prevents water from reaching their remote farmland.

For years, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have blamed Chinese dams for shrinking the Mekong River, known in China as the Lancang River, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and runs through Yunnan. Now the river - a lifeline not just for people living in those parts of China but also for the tens of millions living downriver in the nations of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam - is at its lowest level in two decades, disrupting cargo traffic.

Underscoring their alarm, members of the Mekong River Commission completed a four-day summit in Thailand on Monday; it was the first such meeting in the commission's 15-year history. China, which has not joined the body, was present as an observer. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Song Tao used the occasion to deny once again that his country was responsible for shrinking the Mekong.

While the debate continues over whether China's dam-building has effectively "hijacked" the Mekong River, China's grandiose water projects seem to have not helped those worst affected by the drought. Hundreds of billions of yuan were spent on the mega-projects as reservoirs fell into disrepair and there was inadequate investment in irrigation systems and water utilities in rural areas.

Despite the mass dash to the riches of the cities that has accompanied China's economic boom, more than half of the nation's population continues to live in rural areas. At least 22 million in the southwest are struggling to find a cup of drinking water. Millions more may be suffering in the north. Their plight seems a bigger threat to social stability than the relatively small band of political reformers and human-rights activists who are routinely rounded up and tossed in jail.

Three decades of economic growth averaging an astounding 9.9% annually has allowed the Chinese government to host the Summer Olympic Games in 2008 and the World Expo (starting next month in Shanghai) while also building enormous hydroelectric dams, a national high-speed express rail line and highways that span the vast nation. However, the leadership apparently could not find the funds to shore up reservoirs and build irrigation systems for its rural poor.

Southwestern China is, in fact, relatively rich in water resources. In Yunnan, there are more than 10,000 cubic meters of water per person, four times the national average. Unfortunately, however, it appears that because the region has a good water supply, investment in water infrastructure has been neglected. Shovel-wielding PLA soldiers are unlikely to make up for the apparent neglect.

According to the World Bank, 65% of China's water goes to agriculture, but less than half of that actually reaches crops because of faulty or non-existent infrastructure. Meanwhile, the lack of recycling in the country means that nearly all of the 25% of the water supply allotted to industry is dumped untreated into China's rivers. In the developed world, 85% of that water would be reused.

Figures from the Ministry of Water Resources show that more than half of China's farmland is without access to irrigation systems and thus dependent on the vicissitudes of the weather for a decent harvest. For farmers who do have access to irrigation, most of that water is wasted before it reaches their crops.

The picture for China's reservoirs is equally bleak. Of the 87,000 that had been built by 2007, 43% were in disrepair. In many cases, this means they are so heavily silted that they dry up when the rains cease and flood during summer when they reach their peak.

For the most part, then, China's rural population of 757 million has been left to their own devices in times of acute water shortages as well as floods. Now, if you believe mainland media reports strenuously denied by government officials, they are abandoning their villages as the worst drought in 100 years bears down on them.

Kent Ewing is a Hong Kong-based teacher and writer. He can be reached at
kewing@hkis.edu.hk
.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chinese communis ! YOU MOTHERFUCKER THE KILLERS!

Anonymous said...

It is a lack of understanding "system impact". Once a part of a system is modified, it will affect the other part of the system. Go ahead with the dam construction