Pro-government demonstrators carry Thai national flags and Thai King's portrait during a rally at Victory Monument in Bangkok, Thailand, 26 Apr 2010 (Photo: AP)Brian Padden, VOA
Jakarta 27 April 2010
Thailand's neighbors are watching the political unrest in Bangkok with growing concern. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has said the protests there could spread economic and political instability throughout the region.
ASEAN has called on the Thai government and the anti-government demonstrators to exercise restraint and to seek a settlement through dialogue and reconciliation. The foreign ministers of Singapore and Indonesia have made similar statements.
Since March, 26 people have been killed and almost 1,000 injured in bomb blasts and confrontations between police and anti-government protesters in Bangkok known as red shirts. The red shirts, made up mostly of rural and urban poor, demand new elections. The demonstrations have disrupted businesses and tourism in the country.
Protests Could Affect Investments
Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah says he is concerned that instability in Thailand could lead to a repeat of the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Then, the collapse of the Thai baht hurt investor confidence in the region.
"Well its rather too early to assess what would be the direct impact of the development in Thailand on the economy, but we did hope actually that it would not create similar situations [like] in the '90's when the contagion effect of the economic meltdown was felt in our region," said Faizasyah. "But hopefully this is a very isolated case but we are also very hopeful that with our efforts together then we can resolve the situation in a peaceful way."
Michael Montesano with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs says right now most foreign investors see the crisis as specific to Thailand only. But, he says, as the protests continue investment in the region could be affected.
"The only effect that we need to be afraid of is those people on the outside of the region who see the region as a whole, and who have their antenna up to instability and political crisis in Southeast Asia, and who, when they see crisis in one country become skittish about how to deal with investment and the economy and other activities in the region as a whole," said Montesano.
Neighbors Offer Assistance
Thailand's political divisions have built steadily over the past several years, since a military coup ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.
Although Thailand's urban middle class and elite consider him corrupt, he remains very popular among farmers and the poor, because of his anti-poverty programs. His supporters consider the current government to be illegitimate because it came to power in a parliamentary deal after courts ousted two pro-Thaksin elected governments in 2008.
Singapore and Indonesia have offered help to resolve the crisis in Thailand but Faizasyah says it would only be useful if both sides request it.
"We are not interfering in our neighboring issues actually," said Faizasyah. "It must be very clear if there is anyway we can assist in the dialogue, at the request of the government or other parties in this situation then certainly we will be, we are there to provide any assistance available at our disposal."
Montesano says ASEAN's tradition of non-interference in members' affairs and the Thai government's unwillingness to ask for help, will stifle any regional mediation effort. What Thailand's neighbors can do to prevent similar protest movements from spreading, he says, is to address the concerns of the poor and disenfranchised in their own countries.
"I think that other countries in the region would do well to look at the deep roots of Thailand's crisis, and to ask themselves whether their economies and their societies aren't also subject to similar crises," said Montesano.
Apart from that, he says, Thailand's neighbors and the rest of the world can only watch to see how the crisis plays out.
ASEAN has called on the Thai government and the anti-government demonstrators to exercise restraint and to seek a settlement through dialogue and reconciliation. The foreign ministers of Singapore and Indonesia have made similar statements.
Since March, 26 people have been killed and almost 1,000 injured in bomb blasts and confrontations between police and anti-government protesters in Bangkok known as red shirts. The red shirts, made up mostly of rural and urban poor, demand new elections. The demonstrations have disrupted businesses and tourism in the country.
Protests Could Affect Investments
Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah says he is concerned that instability in Thailand could lead to a repeat of the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Then, the collapse of the Thai baht hurt investor confidence in the region.
"Well its rather too early to assess what would be the direct impact of the development in Thailand on the economy, but we did hope actually that it would not create similar situations [like] in the '90's when the contagion effect of the economic meltdown was felt in our region," said Faizasyah. "But hopefully this is a very isolated case but we are also very hopeful that with our efforts together then we can resolve the situation in a peaceful way."
Michael Montesano with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs says right now most foreign investors see the crisis as specific to Thailand only. But, he says, as the protests continue investment in the region could be affected.
"The only effect that we need to be afraid of is those people on the outside of the region who see the region as a whole, and who have their antenna up to instability and political crisis in Southeast Asia, and who, when they see crisis in one country become skittish about how to deal with investment and the economy and other activities in the region as a whole," said Montesano.
Neighbors Offer Assistance
Thailand's political divisions have built steadily over the past several years, since a military coup ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006.
Although Thailand's urban middle class and elite consider him corrupt, he remains very popular among farmers and the poor, because of his anti-poverty programs. His supporters consider the current government to be illegitimate because it came to power in a parliamentary deal after courts ousted two pro-Thaksin elected governments in 2008.
Singapore and Indonesia have offered help to resolve the crisis in Thailand but Faizasyah says it would only be useful if both sides request it.
"We are not interfering in our neighboring issues actually," said Faizasyah. "It must be very clear if there is anyway we can assist in the dialogue, at the request of the government or other parties in this situation then certainly we will be, we are there to provide any assistance available at our disposal."
Montesano says ASEAN's tradition of non-interference in members' affairs and the Thai government's unwillingness to ask for help, will stifle any regional mediation effort. What Thailand's neighbors can do to prevent similar protest movements from spreading, he says, is to address the concerns of the poor and disenfranchised in their own countries.
"I think that other countries in the region would do well to look at the deep roots of Thailand's crisis, and to ask themselves whether their economies and their societies aren't also subject to similar crises," said Montesano.
Apart from that, he says, Thailand's neighbors and the rest of the world can only watch to see how the crisis plays out.
24 comments:
Honestly, I do wish that Thailand's unrest spreads as quickly as possible to P.Penh, so we may seize this only opportunity to stage a coup to overthrow CPP's corrupt regime.
As HunSen could seize power in a military coup in 1997, so can we in 2010. It's about time HunSen tastes his own medicine.
Was ASEAN equally concerned when the siamese invaded Preah Vihear khmer?
I am wondering if Cambodia would be better off to go it alone outside this useless organization.
Thailand should SPLIT, est-side speak Khmer and boudhist becomes a country or annexed to Cambodia, west-side speak Thai and muslim another country or annexed to Malasia ?
siem has never done anything good for asean; it was only about their own country's interest, etc... shame on siem for their cruel and greeds!
This country will become like the country of Yugoslavia that they split into many countries:
Serbia
Croatia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Slovenia
Montenegro
Kosovo
Macedonia
Vojvodina
These were the former states of Yugoslavia.
Yugoslavia was a federation of republics, set up by the first post-1945 leader, Josip Broz (Tito). His aim was said to be to prevent the domination of the whole by any one ethnic group. However, while he was alive he dominated the whole. In 1945 he wished to include Albania and perhaps also Bulgaria within the federation.
The pre-1939 state had been ruled mainly by the Serbs under the former Serb Royal Family whose language is spoken in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The mainly Catholic and former Hapsburg Croats and Slovenes resented this domination. After Tito's death the leaders of the republics found it increasingly difficult to work together.
Slovenia and Croatia soon elected non-communist governments and showed signs of wishing to join the European Union. Yugoslavia ceased to exist during 1991, and has currently been replaced by several smaller states:
Bosnia-Herzegovina;
Croatia (Hrvatska);
Kosovo (Kosova).
Montenegro (Crna Gora);
Serbia (Srpska);
Slovenia (Slovenija);
The first problem was and is Kosovo (Kosova in Albanian). Serb nationalists regard Kosovo as the heartland of Serbia because of early battles against the Turks (although in reality the ancestors of the Albanians were there before the Serbs arrived). Muslim Albanians are now a majority in the province. Unfortunately Tito did not make it a Republic, only an autonomous province of Serbia. The Serbian government revoked the autonomy. Vojvodina, the other autonomous province, also lost its autonomy, although it has a large minority of non-Serbs (in this case Hungarians and Croats).
What is the attitude of the other powers? Probably the consensus was that the preservation of some kind of Yugoslav state would have been the most desirable solution but that looks increasingly impossible to achieve. Serbs claimed that independent Slovenia would come under the control of Germany or Austria and Croatia of Hungary. It seemed likely that Slovenia would at least need close economic links with its neighbors Austria and Italy in order to survive. It has now joined the EU.
Croatia seemed in danger of complete disintegration as its likely shape after Serbian annexations might not be viable. Vojvodina would be in danger of control by Hungary (if Hungary itself were not so weak). These considerations meant that the old Yugoslavia still looked desirable to outsiders. But as the inhabitants refused to recreate it the outsiders had to accept the new situation and devise a policy to deal with it. The European Union and the UN tried to mediate in the wars but had no success, other than trying to set up a peace conference between politicians who had no desire to talk to each other.
The wars were the continuation of struggles which have been going on since the early 19th century at least. Following the destruction and partition of Bosnia the most likely next step would have been a renewed war between Croatia and Serbia and in Kosovo and Albania. The refugees driven out of their homes might well have become a perennial problem like the Palestinians, Armenians, Kurds and others.
EU and NATO action may have prevented these malign possibilities, especially after the fall of the Milosevic regime in Serbia.
Thailand will be doomed!
What has been done wrong before now it is coming to Thailand.
History will tell!
Khmer will regain its glory name.
Khmer Empire!
"siem has never done anything good for asean; it was only about their own country's interest, etc... shame on siem for their cruel and greeds!
10:38 PM"
10:38 JUST DO GOOD THING TO YOURSELF IN HONEST WAY! DO NOT MINE MUTCH ABOUT OTHER LIKE THE COMMUNIST OR THE FUCKING VIETNAME!!!!
"Was ASEAN equally concerned when the siamese invaded Preah Vihear khmer?
I am wondering if Cambodia would be better off to go it alone outside this useless organization.
10:03 PM"
DO IT MONKEY 10:03pm IF YOU WANT TO BE A COMMUNIST OR JUNGLE BOY!
Khmer Surin must rise up!!!
Too much of a dream for some Khmer people. Khmer not even get their act together in Cambodia. How could the accomplished anything?
You got to remember. Khmer has been controlled this region for long time and will retake that position again.
go with the world politics not with your khmer little corner ok>
Thai ladyboys land whines about money and shut up after that.
Bangkok rolom - Phnom Penh rik touleay - teub siem kchat kchay - sabay preah vihear robors khmer.
Khmer in solidarity !
South Thailand - Independent Muslim State
West Thailand - Independent Refugee State for the refugees from Myanmar
North Thailand - Independent Lanna State
Far Northeast Thailand - Independent Isan/Lao State
North East/East Thailand - Independent Kampuchea Leur State
Central Thailand - Independent Lady Boys State
Stupid Bhumibol is old and frail will die soon.
Thai Muslim,
Yala
Dear all, Please together observing the Siamese SHOW:
1- This is a Siamese historical Show(Siam Min Choll Kbuonn)
2- Siam is actually dancing
3- Siam is singing a faky song to the wold
4- Siam is playing a two rusty strings Quitar while singing a faking song
5- The Siamese King is geting older daily
6- The Siemese King is portraying & dividing Thais People.
7- All abowe, Siamese is the player,(merely the player)(?).
As the audiance, we want to leave Siamese a not that: keep playing well!...!, whatch out your two RUSTY quitar string!!!. We (audiance) may reclaim the tickets prices!!!!
Kao Tjai Mai?????
P.K.L
Down To Siamese King
Well everyone of us is getting old and will die, so why cursing the King only?
Because he is the mastermind & the prime player in this SHOW!!
Down to you !!!
How do you know the King is the mastermind & the prime player in this show? He is Thai-American and the US still have its based and Abhisit didn't show up out of the blue if another masterminds didn't combat with. His life is under another powerful masterminds if they want to shoot him like his brother. To rule over SEA they could do everything.
I can see world war three to be erupted in these three locations in the word.
- In europ, near the Rusian border, between the NATO against RUSSIA.
- Indochina region, cause by THIEVES's alie against Preah Baath Tham-miick.
- In Midle-east region between 1) the Religion, 2) Fresh water usage, 3)Land claiming and the Politic egos amont the surounding Nations and the word.
Anyways remember 2012/12/31 the Dinizuaer ERA will reocure on our Planet earth, then live will be exactly what was happening to DINO..Millionth...!years ago.
P.K.L
Ironic. Thailand's duly elected PM was ousted by the military. Cambodia is stable and democratic.
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