Thailand’s great political divide: Red Shirts vs. Yellow Shirts or Ethnic Khmer-Laotians vs. Ethnic Thais?

Op-Ed by Khmerization
22nd April 2010

“Thailand’s current political war …..is a war fought between the Bangkokian elitists versus the underprivileged Thai Issan, the north east Thais who mainly made up of the ethnic Khmers and the Laotians who are considered by the ethnic Thais as uncivilised and inferior……it is also a proxy war fought between Thaksin and the Thai king and the royal institution of Thailand who feel threatened with Thaksin’s overwhelming popularity.”

The present political turmoil in Thailand is unprecedented in the history of Thailand and is deep-rooted in resentment of economic disparity that culminated into a power play and a power struggle between the rural poor and the well-to-do city-dwellers. It started when the city-dwellers feel marginalised and threatened when the rural poor voted to put Thaksin Shinawatra in power from 2001-2006.

Thailand’s current political war is fought between the royalists versus the Thaksinists, the rich versus the poor, but especially it is a war fought between the Bangkokian elitists versus the underprivileged Thai Issan,the north east Thais who mainly made up of the ethnic Khmers and the Laotians who are considered by the ethnic Thais as uncivilised and inferior.

Thailand’s north eastern provinces, which are inhabited mostly by ethnic Khmers and Laotians, known as Thai Issan, have been neglected by the central governments in Bangkok for many centuries. This neglect has tipped the economic andpolitical scale toward the ethnic Thais and as a result it has caused widespread resentment and anger among the Thai Issan. The resentment and anger was underpinned by income inequality the rural poor and city-dwellers and the need for more government services such as doctors, universities and opportunities for young people in Issan. There is one doctor for every 5,300 Thai Issan people in the northeast, compared with one per 850 for every ethnic Thai in Bangkok and one in 2,800 for the country over all, according to government statistics.

Mr. Thaksin played a populist politician and responded to their woes and their needs by pumping money and development projects into the rural areas which in turn drew resentment from the well-to-do city-dwellers and the yellow shirt movement was formed. The people in regional and rural Thailand,the Thai Issan, who felt that they have not been treated the same as the ethnic Thais, suddenly have found a strong political ally in Mr. Thaksin when he championed their cause by directing his development attention to the rural areas. The red shirt movement was then born to campaign for his return when he was deposed in a coup d’etat in 2006. This is what started thecurrent political stalemate.

The current Thailand’s great political divide also stemmed from a power struggle to control over Thailand’s affairs between the haves and the have-nots. To a certain extent, it was a war fought over racism, the well-to-do Thais up against the underprivileged ethnic Khmers and Laotians fromthe north east countryside. Ethnic Thais, who made up the bulk of the yellow shirt protesters, the royalists and the Bangkokian elites, don’t wantthe Thai Issan, ethnic Khmers and Laotians who made up the core of the red shirt movement, to control them through any future Thaksin-friendly governments. As a result,the Thai elites and the Thai Establishments are supporting Mr. Abhisit to resist any pressures for him to step down and hold any election sooner. An election would mean the end of their domination over Thailand because the Thaksin camp will win resoundingly.

Ultimately and essentially, it is also a proxy war fought between Thaksin and the Thai king and the royal institution of Thailand who feel threatened with Thaksin’s overwhelming popularity. Mr. Thaksin, through his populist policies, have built up a sizable rural following and a rural power base that can rival, and even surpass, the popularity and power of the king. This had made him the king’s enemy number one.

The current political dogfight is a quagmire that seemed to be irreversible and irreconcilable, but has further plunged deeper and deeper into a chaotic and unruly unrest that can only descend into a civil war. And with the multi-coloured groups, the groups opposing the red shirt movement, planning its biggest ever rally on Friday, thepolitical situations in Bangkok could further descend into a violent and political locked horn battle that could result in Thailand plunging into a disastrous and prolonged civil war.

The current Thailand’s protracted political crisis will only end whenever Mr. Abhisit agrees to step down and hold a new election or when the king decides to intervene. A violent crackdown by Abhisit and the security forces will cause further national division and lead to armed clashes and a prolonged and violent resistance as the red shirt movement is also supported by some parts of the Thai army and the security forces.