Thai Prime Minister survives - but may never recover

May 19, 2010
Times Online (UK)

Before he became Prime Minister 18 months ago, the Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, was known for his good manners, expensive British education and general air of well bred affability. In the past few weeks, he has emerged as a hard-nosed and determined, even ruthless, political survivor.

Last week, it seemed that the best he could hope for was a compromise with the protesters – an early election (which he would probably lose) in return for the restoration of the central area of Bangkok occupied by the Red Shirts. But tonight he emerged with total victory after the Red Shirt leadership, unable to contemplate more civilian deaths, handed itself over en masse for arrest.

He can now hold off elections until the end of next year, if necessary – certainly long enough to make his own appointments to key posts in the military and to pass a national budget to the advantage of his supporters and party. But the long term prospects for Mr Abhisit and Thailand itself are uncertain to bleak.

Key Bangkok buildings, including the stock exchange, were smouldering tonight after being set alight by outraged Red Shirt supporters – an anger that will seethe all the more fiercely for the suppression of the protests. This was a military solution, not a political one – and the political divides in Thai society are more gaping than ever.

The following days may see more acts of civil disobedience and violence – not only in Bangkok, but in the northern provinces where support for the Reds is strongest.

Meanwhile, the images of today’s events – burning buildings and civilians shot dead by soldiers – will linger in the consciousness, not only of tourists, but foreign investors. In a few months, today’s events may look like the victory from which Mr Abhisit never recovered.