Friday, June 11, 2010

Red Shirts plan to use Cambodia as a command base for a hit-and-run style insurgency in bordering northeastern Thai provinces?

Abhisit's democratic choice

Jun 12, 2010
By Shawn W Crispin
Asia Time Online


BANGKOK - Thailand is sliding towards de-facto military rule and it is not clear that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has the will or power to turn back the authoritarian tide. A sustained state of emergency has given security forces extraordinary powers to detain suspects without trial, censor the media and ban public gatherings, powers the top brass have flexed after last month's dramatic crackdown on anti-government protesters encamped in the heart of Bangkok.

One military insider contends that the Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES), which was formed to handle the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group's street protests, is morphing into a sort of ''shadow government'' to Abhisit's democratically elected coalition. There is no sign since the protest's dispersal that the CRES plans to disband. The insider says it is putting in place structures to sustain its influence over the country's administration.

Three weeks since the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, a crackdown against the group's leaders, organizers and supporters has widened, with an emphasis on areas of the country that remain under emergency rule. According to diplomats and human-rights advocates, it is unclear how many people have been arrested and detained, and under what conditions they are being held. The government has acknowledged holding over 400 people; one local rights group claims as many as 100 people have gone missing since May 19.

"We believe that more have been detained than the government has acknowledged and that the army has let it be known that they plan on doing things their way. And the army has a long history of disappearing people in Thailand," says one representative of an international rights organization. The rights representative contends that the military and police are keeping two separate lists of detainees and that crackdown in the provinces is a "black box".

Emergency rule allows for suspects to be held for 30 days before they must either be charged or released - meaning the deadline for many suspects is fast approaching. Abhisit indicated on June 6 that emergency rule would remain in place indefinitely to guard against UDD-aligned armed elements that his government considers “terrorists”. Fanning those fears, exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the UDD's symbolic leader, said after the crackdown that angry UDD supporters might in future resort to "guerilla tactics".

Several UDD leaders, including Thaksin, have been accused of "terrorism" for their alleged association with armed militants who launched grenades and exchanged gunfire with security forces at the UDD's protest site. Officials believe that the shadowy armed wing was also responsible for a series of mysterious bombings that coincided with the UDD's protest activities and began soon after the Supreme Court ruled to seize US$1.4 billion worth of Thaksin's personal assets on corruption charges.

An estimated 89 people were killed and more than 1,800 injured in protest-related violence that began on April 10 and culminated in the May 19 crackdown. The government and UDD have blamed one another. Abhisit's government initiated this week an independent probe into the killings and injuries and the premier has indicated that he would take responsibility if troops were found to have violated internationally accepted rules of engagement. It is not initially clear, however, that the military's top brass share that sentiment.

Already the opposition Puea Thai party has questioned the impartiality of the panel's government-appointed head, a former attorney general who was assigned by the post-2006 coup military appointed administration to investigate Thaksin's government's alleged human-rights abuses, including a "war on drugs" campaign that is said to have resulted in as many as 2,200 extrajudicial killings. That inconclusive probe, however, resulted in no prosecutions or convictions of security forces or politicians.

Several independent observers believe that the military was responsible for the majority of the UDD protest-related killings, including the shooting deaths of two foreign journalists. However, it is unclear if troops used disproportionate force in dealing with what at least one foreign interlocutor characterized as an "armed rebellion". Many diplomats and analysts are now weighing whether the UDD has the capability or intent to follow through on Thaksin's veiled insurgency threat.

Underground threat
With its top leaders either in detention or in hiding and its chief financiers' faced with asset freezes, there are indications that the UDD is in disarray. Yet one UDD organizer who spoke with Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity indicated that a second generation of UDD leaders was biding its time until the government lifted emergency rule to launch new rounds of protests, including in north and northeastern provinces where the UDD's grassroots support is strongest.

Hardline UDD leaders, including Arisman Pongruangrong and Suporn Attawong, have reportedly fled to Cambodia and, according to the UDD organizer, are now involved in planning the next phase of the UDD's resistance. They have reportedly joined forces with exiled UDD strategist Jakrapob Penkair, who told foreign media after the military's suppression of an earlier UDD protest in April 2009 that the group was prepared to launch an underground "armed struggle".

Analysts now wonder whether the UDD plans to use Cambodia as a command base for a hit-and-run style insurgency in bordering northeastern Thai provinces, similar to the low-intensity campaign Muslim rebels have waged from Malaysia to destabilizing effect in Thailand's three southernmost provinces. UDD protesters torched provincial halls and other government installations in four northeastern provinces in the wake of the May 19 crackdown in Bangkok. Nonetheless the government excluded several northern and northeastern provinces among the 23 it first placed under curfew.

Skeptics believe that Thaksin's veiled insurgency threat is for now posturing aimed at enhancing his negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government. During secret talks between Thaksin and government negotiator Sukhumbhand Paribatra held in mid-April in Brunei, Thaksin lobbied for the return of his diplomatic passport and access to the hundreds of millions of dollars not confiscated by the Supreme Court ruling, according to a government source familiar with the discussions which were organized by a Swedish parliamentarian interlocutor.

(During a June 1 press event in Bangkok, Sukhumbhand would neither confirm nor deny whether the negotiations took place, but diplomats and other international mediators have confirmed that they did. Public recognition of Thaksin's participation would seemingly undermine his recent disavowals of having any influence over the UDD's activities.)

Some analysts believe that the greater threat to stability comes from the UDD's attempts to sow divisions along factional lines inside the military. Questions remain unanswered about the identity of the black-clad assailants who fired assault rifles and M-79 grenades at security forces from the UDD's side of the protest site. Initial speculation in the wake of the men-in-black's first emergence on April 10 pointed to renegade Rangers, or tahahn prahn, loyal to Thaksin ally and former army commander and prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

Certain diplomats now believe, judging by the fighting skills they exhibited, that the black-clad fighters were more likely paid mercenaries with experience as Marine SEALS or the air force's secretive anti-aircraft unit and links to the military's pre-Cadet Academy's Class 10 faction. In light of their alumni ties to Thaksin, many Class 10 soldiers were sidelined or demoted after the 2006 coup and on their retirement last year joined forces with the Thaksin-aligned opposition Puea Thai party.

Former Queen's Guard soldiers, including army commander General Anupong Paochinda and deputy army commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, have since been on the promotional ascent - often at the expense of professional soldiers attached to less royally decorated army units. Some analysts have speculated that the seemingly systematic promotion of army royalists aims to ensure a smooth royal succession from 82-year-old King Bhumibol to his heir apparent son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.

However, the anticipated transition from the moderate Anupong to the more hardline Prayuth later this year is expected to accentuate intra-military disenfranchisement because Prayuth could potentially serve for four consecutive years in the army's top spot. A known palace favorite, Prayuth has already positioned many of his Class 12 allies for top-level promotions in this year's reshuffle.

Hardliner rising
Since April, Prayuth has asserted greater influence over the CRES, reportedly in reaction to Anupong's refusal to take a tougher tack against the UDD. Passions apparently came to a head after the April 10 melee where exchanges between armed protesters and troops resulted in 26 deaths, including five soldiers. Among the fallen was palace favorite Colonel Romklao Thuwatham and two other soldiers who were expected to fill key positions under Prayuth's command.

When the military moved decisively on May 19 against the UDD, King's and Queen's Guard units appeared side-by-side at a press conference broadcast on national television as the operation unfolded. Some analysts believe that the symbolic show of royally decorated unity was orchestrated to counter rumors of dissension among the ranks after days of firefights that killed scores of protesters and a handful of troops. However, during the military's operation against the UDD's protest site there was no indication of a breakdown in command authority, according to one well-placed diplomat.

The ongoing crackdown against the UDD is being viewed in some royalist quarters as a measuring stick of regional commanders' loyalty and effectiveness. Second Army Region commander Lieutenant General Weewalit Chornsamrit, who oversees security in the northeastern region, has passed the test with flying colors, according to one military insider. The First Army Region Commander, Lieutenant General Kanit Sapitak, charged with Bangkok's security, has reportedly come under fire from Prayuth for his perceived hesitant response to the UDD.

Some believe the top brass has deliberately played up the notion that the UDD represents a threat to the royal crown to shore up military unity. In the lead-up to the May 19 crackdown, Abhisit claimed without providing detailed evidence that the UDD secretly aimed to topple the monarchy - an incendiary accusation in Thailand's political and legal context. UDD leaders have strongly denied the allegation, including in a little red bilingual question-and-answer book distributed towards the end of their protest.

But its clear from the ongoing crackdown on UDD supporters, including an academic who has been released and a newspaper editor who is still in detention, that the military is exercising emergency powers to identify and target perceived threats to the crown. With the combined threats of a possible Thaksin-fueled insurgency and an alleged plot to topple the monarchy, Abhisit will be hard-pressed to roll back any time soon the military's discretionary powers.

Abhisit has relied heavily on the military because of his lack of control and trust in the police to maintain law and order. There have been instances where he has pushed back against military might. According to one person close to the premier, Abhisit threatened to step down in April amid speculation that Prayuth might stage a "half coup" that aimed to oust Anupong while leaving Abhisit's coalition government in place. He is also known to have resisted hardline military and royalist voices that wanted to crack down on the UDD's protest earlier, according to diplomats.

In reply to a journalist's question at a May 29 press conference on whether he ever considered resigning over the loss of life during the May 19 crackdown, Abhisit said he would take personal responsibility if the independent probe initiated this week found him guilty of wrongful loss of life. He emphasized that he has tried to find a "peaceful" solution to the country's crisis and underscored his long personal history of pushing for democratic reforms as an elected politician.

To signal a return to democratic normalcy, Abhisit returned to work at Government House after spending nearly two months at a Bangkok military base due to concerns for his personal security. He has indicated plans to stay the course of his "reconciliation roadmap" and floated anew the potential for dissolving parliament and holding elections before his term is up at the end of 2011.

But there are emerging doubts that Prayuth and his soldier allies would be willing to risk an election result that saw Abhisit ousted, a Thaksin-aligned government installed and the military's recent record opened to tougher scrutiny.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

King Bhumibol used this strategy to attack Cambodia. King Bhumibol follows the order from his master Uncle SAM. Another thing is the US want to punish Hun Sen for sleeping with China. The US also threats Hanoi for having many heads: one sleeping with China causing troubles inside Thailand's internal affair, two sleeping with the US and having an affair with Russia all at one time.

This is a war between US and China but small countries like Cambodia and Thai are the victims. Russia is in it but a secret affair between Vietnam and Russia. THe superpower are fight for the mountain Gold and oil. About The giant gold in Cambodia, American Scientists already knew for a long time ago, but they didn't send a signal out. The Economy can be saved by this giant gold at least by many.

Anonymous said...

cambodia don't tolerate any terriorist group. so don't try to drag cambodia into siem's problem, really!

Anonymous said...

King Bhumibol used this strategy to attack Cambodia. King Bhumibol follows the order from his master Uncle SAM. Another thing is the US want to punish Hun Sen for sleeping with China. The US also threats Hanoi for having many heads: one sleeping with China causing troubles inside Thailand's internal affair, two sleeping with the US and having an affair with Russia all at one time.

This is a war between US and China but small countries like Cambodia and Thai are the victims. Russia is in it but a secret affair between Vietnam and Russia.

The superpower are fighting for the mountain Gold and oil. About The giant gold in Cambodia, American Scientists already knew for a long times ago, but they didn't send a signal out. The Economy can be saved by this giant gold at least by many.

Anonymous said...

10:05 PM,
Yuon are terorists and why are they inside Cambodia?

Anonymous said...

if they are illegal immigrants, kick them all out, cambodia!

Anonymous said...

10:04pm,

Stop blabing if you don't know what you're talking about.

Those stupid statements you made, are there evidence to support?

Anonymous said...

10:48 pm.
He needs no evidence to support, everyone can analyse based on the recent problem in Thailand and he global geopolitics.

Anonymous said...

No one dares to find the evidence who shot King Ananda Mahidol while then prince Bhumibol was with the King. Noe he created his law "Les Majesty Laws" to protect him from being prosecuted with all crimes.

Anonymous said...

the one eye was born in america, must we say more!

Anonymous said...

Remember Thailand is an Un- conditional friend to United States __ meaning right or wrong the two countries will help each other><<>><<

Anonymous said...

You will see pretty soon, the ugly playboy with aid disease will be a new King. His wife was a porn star is going to be son Queen. His father Bhumibol is dying may be dead already. This smooth transition is about to start.

This guy is chosen to be the next monarch for hsi rude behavior and he also hates Cambodians. Perfect match. The US will fight to keep Thailand and won't lose it to the Red.

Anonymous said...

Democratic Kampuchea Pol Pot Khmer Rouge Regime

Members:
Pol Pot
Nuon Chea
Ieng Sary
Ta Mok
Khieu Samphan
Son Sen
Ieng Thearith
Kaing Kek Iev
Hun Sen
Chea Sim
Heng Samrin
Hor Namhong
Keat Chhon
Ouk Bunchhoeun
Sim Ka...

Committed:
Tortures
Brutality
Executions
Massacres
Mass Murder
Genocide
Atrocities
Crimes Against Humanity
Starvations
Slavery
Force Labour
Overwork to Death
Human Abuses
Persecution
Unlawful Detention


Cambodian People's Party Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime

Members:
Hun Sen
Chea Sim
Heng Samrin
Hor Namhong
Keat Chhon
Ouk Bunchhoeun
Sim Ka...

Committed:
Attempted Murders
Attempted Murder on Chea Vichea
Attempted Assassinations
Attempted Assassination on Sam Rainsy
Assassinations
Assassinated Journalists
Assassinated Political Opponents
Assassinated Leaders of the Free Trade Union
Assassinated over 80 members of Sam Rainsy Party.

"But as of today, over eighty members of my party have been assassinated. Countless others have been injured, arrested, jailed, or forced to go into hiding or into exile."
Sam Rainsy LIC 31 October 2009 - Cairo, Egypt

Executions
Executed over 100 members of FUNCINPEC Party
Murders
Murdered 3 Leaders of the Free Trade Union
Murdered Chea Vichea
Murdered Ros Sovannareth
Murdered Hy Vuthy
Murdered 10 Journalists
Murdered Khim Sambo
Murdered Khim Sambo's son
Murdered members of Sam Rainsy Party.
Murdered activists of Sam Rainsy Party
Murdered Innocent Men
Murdered Innocent Women
Murdered Innocent Children
Killed Innocent Khmer Peoples.
Extrajudicial Execution
Grenade Attack
Terrorism
Drive by Shooting
Brutalities
Police Brutality Against Monks
Police Brutality Against Evictees
Tortures
Intimidations
Death Threats
Threatening
Human Abductions
Human Abuses
Human Rights Abuses
Human Trafficking
Drugs Trafficking
Under Age Child Sex
Corruptions
Bribery
Embezzlement
Treason
Border Encroachment, allow Vietnam to encroaching into Cambodia.
Signed away our territories to Vietnam; Koh Tral, almost half of our ocean territory oil field and others.
Illegal Arrest
Illegal Mass Evictions
Illegal Land Grabbing
Illegal Firearms
Illegal Logging
Illegal Deforestation

Illegally use of remote detonation bomb on Sokha Helicopter, while Hok Lundy and other military officials were on board.

Lightning strike many airplanes, but did not fall from the sky. Lightning strike out side of airplane and discharge electricity to ground.
Source: Lightning, Discovery Channel

Illegally Sold State Properties
Illegally Removed Parliamentary Immunity of Parliament Members
Plunder National Resources
Acid Attacks
Turn Cambodia into a Lawless Country.
Oppression
Injustice
Steal Votes
Bring Foreigners from Veitnam to vote in Cambodia for Cambodian People's Party.
Use Dead people's names to vote for Cambodian People's Party.
Disqualified potential Sam Rainsy Party's voters.
Abuse the Court as a tools for CPP to send political opponents and journalists to jail.
Abuse of Power
Abuse the Laws
Abuse the National Election Committee
Abuse the National Assembly
Violate the Laws
Violate the Constitution
Violate the Paris Accords
Impunity
Persecution
Unlawful Detention
Death in custody.

Under the Cambodian People's Party Hun Sen Khmer Rouge Regime, no criminals that has been committed crimes against journalists, political opponents, leaders of the Free Trade Union, innocent men, women and children have ever been brought to justice.

Anonymous said...

Yes, this article is right. Thailand is sliding back into Military Dictaship again under pretext of protecting the king. The new strong man now is General Prayuth, not Abbhisit. Thai democracy takes a step backward. HunXen definitely (he said it before) will not let Cambodia be used to support Thai politics. We just want the Thai to pack up and get out of Preah Vihear.

Anonymous said...

Thailand will has a civil war (Thaksin and Abhisit). Thaksin will use Cambodia as a launch base since it has invisibly supports from Vietnam. Vietnam will help Thaksin to win Thailand just like it has helped Hun Sen to liberate khmers. Eventually, the Ho Chi Ming' s dream will be true, establisting Indochina Federation, Champa, Khmer Krom, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand.

I overSEE

Anonymous said...

We have to take vengeance the death of red shirts.
It is absolutely killing Abhisit Veija jiva.

Thaksin will soon have its armed forces, Cambodian and africains mercenaries .

Anonymous said...

At least they only have a law that stops you criticising the king. In Cambodia, there is no law stopping you from criticising the leaders of the country, but they will use the law to stop you from saying anything else and maybe even kill you. At least in Thailand, everyone knows where they stand.

How can you say 'don't drag Cambodia into Siem's problems'? Wasn't that exactly what Mr. Hun Sen was doing when he invited Mr. Thaksin to Cambodia???? Why have these UDD leaders run to Cambodian territory and not Myanmar or Laos? Because they know that Mr. Hun Sen and Mr. Thaksin are now friends (don't forget they weren't so friendly when the Thai embassy in PP was burnt down a few years ago - but I guess large amounts of money will make anyone friends - look at the Cambodian army and Khmer Rouge during the civil war here).

It is all about money and power. The leaders here will pretend to stay out of the issue until its obvious they can benefit from the situation and they'll come out in support of whoever is most likely to win. Don't forget all the oil of the coast. You need to make sure your friends with whoever is in power in Thailand or else you won't be able to enjoy the money to be had from any deals between Thailand, Cambodia and the oil companies.

Anonymous said...

shut up and go back to nanchoa province of china, ok! give back khmer lands you stole from khmer angkor, ok!

Destin Lee said...

No body stole Khmer land, you ignorant prig 8;56am.