Reds and yellows could even unite to force out Abhisit

January 28, 2011
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation

Warin Buaviratlert, a well-known astrologer from Chiang Mai, has created quite a stir with his prediction of the political upheavals ahead (see www.manager.co.th/Home/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID). He said that if street rallies by the red and yellow shirts are allowed to drag on, they could lead to violent incidents and eclipse the star (duang muang) of the country.

By April and May, protesters could unite to call for peace, he added. Warin would not confirm whether there would be a military coup or not, nor whether a House dissolution would have to take place to ensure Abhisit Vejjajiva stays as prime minister.

But Warin emphasised that drastic political change lies on the horizon, with a person with the initial "P" coming in to run the country.

I am not a fan of Warin, but his prediction sets a dark tone for what could emerge over the next few months. Indeed, the Democrats are now in full defensive mode. There have been rumours of another coup. This follows the opposition claims that the Abhisit government might not survive a coup amid the street protests ahead of the election.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban rejected the suggestion of a coup. "It's not possible because I have worked with all the armed forces' leaders and they support democracy," he told reporters.

The border conflict with Cambodia has intensified after seven Thais were arrested for illegally trespassing onto Cambodian territory. Five of them have been released, while two remain in prison in Phnom Penh.

There have been conflicting accounts. One of the Thais arrested by the Cambodian authorities claimed that the place they were arrested was Thai soil, between the 46th and 47th border markers in Sakaew province. This site has become a no-man's land after the signing of the memorandum of understanding in 2000.

The Cambodian authorities were said to have escorted the seven Thais deeper into Cambodia before officially arresting them for trespassing. If that is true, it is interesting that Thai leaders had contradictorily claimed that the seven Thais indeed "trespassed" on Cambodian land.

This has sparked wide protests from nationalist elements in the yellow shirts, who have been vigorously campaigning for the "return" of Thai land from Cambodian occupation. They want the government to scrap the 2000 MoU, which they say gives the Cambodians an advantage over Thailand in the land dispute. They also charge that the government has badly mishandled the land dispute around the Phreah Vihear Temple and failed to block Cambodia's attempt to have the temple inscribed as a World Heritage Site by Unesco.

Sondhi Limthongkul, a leader of the yellow shirts, has charged that the government, the Foreign Ministry and some military elements have colluded to sell off Thai land to Cambodia. Now they have camped out on the streets surrounding Government House, reminiscent of the time when they rallied there to evict the Thaksin, Samak and Somchai governments.

At the same time, the red shirts have been holding rallies at the Ratchaprasong intersection and the Democracy Monument to call for an end to the Abhisit admnistration. The red shirts battled against the government in April and May last year in violent clashes that have left a deep scar.

But there have been some signs of a convergence of political interest between the yellow shirts and the red shirts. They both now want the Abhisit government out. It may only be a matter of time before they unite to stage a mass rally against the government. It is possible that they will call for a national government to succeed the Abhisit administration.

The Democrat Party is now doing a backflip. It is diverting attention to the constitutional amendment debate ahead of a possible House dissolution and a snap election. The timing is still not clear as the government needs to pass the 2012 budget bill (to the tune of Bt2.02 trillion) first.

The following are my assessments on possible scenarios:

1. A joint rally by the yellow and red shirts to apply full court pressure against the Abhisit government? Highly likely.

2. A military coup? Highly unlikely

3. A national government? More likely

4. An early election? Unlikely.

We will have to wait for further developments as the Abhisit government becomes increasingly isolated amid growing discontent and further street rallies.