Asean’s solution to the Cambodia-Thai conflict

Op-Ed by Khmerization

25th February, 2011

The Cambodian-Thai conflict is a major challenge and headache facing Asean as a group which has strived hard to create a single and common market and currency in the next 4 years. The Khmer-Thai conflict is a thorn in the Asean’s eyes and its very existence could jeopardise the solidarity and the cohesion of the organization as well as derailing the group’s ability to form an EU-style union by 2015.

The Indonesian ceasefire initiative involving the sending of Indonesian observers to the war zone has minimized that jeopardy to a certain extent and whether the ceasefire will hold remain to be seen. However, the Indonesian initiative is good for the purpose of a ceasefire monitoring and not a permanent solution to the conflict, and with the conflict spreading fast to other areas along the borders between the two countries, there is a risk, and it is anticipating that, that ceasefire may not hold.

But the Indonesian initiative, whether one is optimistic about its success or not, has been described as a ‘unique arrangement” and touted as Asean’s first for it has broken Asean’s long history and tradition on the principle of non-interference in each other’s affairs.

But what does the Indonesian initiative mean in the context of the present Cambodian-Thai conflict? And will it abet in the cessation or prevention of future armed clashes between Cambodian and Thai troops?

As a long term observer of the present conflict, I can portend and presage that the sending of the 30-40 Indonesian observers to the Cambodian-Thai conflict zone will undoubtedly aid in the minimization of the armed clashes, but it will certainly not assist in the prevention or the cessation of armed clashes. My portent and premonition is based on the fact that the root cause or the origin of the conflict had not been addressed at Indonesian meeting on 22nd February, which is the solution to the ownership of the so-called “disputed land” surrounding Preah Vihear temple. As long as this issue still linger and not been resolved, the risk of further escalation of the conflict will occur and the risk of more armed clashes has further increased.

Whose victory is it anyway?

The Cambodian side had already claimed victory, which they had always done after every meeting, for the Asean ministerial meeting in Indonesia and the Thai side had probably done the same. However,being a skeptic to everything claimed by the present Cambodian regime, I reserve my right of judgment based on the outcomes of the meeting.

From a Cambodian perspective, the Thai side had scored a sweet victory over the Cambodian side by successfully keeping the issue regional and, to a great extent, bilateral which Thailand had maintained all along and which Cambodia had always opposed. While Cambodia has succeeded in forcing Thailand to accept Asean’s (Indonesian) observers, the Thai side had succeeded in keeping the status quo by successfully manoeuvering and steering future talks in a bilateral context and preventing Cambodia from pushing the issue forward with the UN Security Council and taking the case to the International Court of Justice. While the Cambodian side had steadfastly insisted that all future talks be held in a third country with a third party participating, this sort of arrangement is still bilateral in nature as the two opposing sides will discuss the issue among themselves while the third party would act as an observer or a facilitator, but not as a mediator as Cambodia would have hoped.

With negotiations steering and heading this direction, one can foresee and ponder a few possible armed clashes occurring due to a few possible scenarios. Firstly, Thailand will try to steer and prevent Cambodia from internationalizing the issue and taking the case to the International Court of Justice which Cambodia hopes to do. Secondly, Thailand will try to bilateralize and regionalize the issue as much as it can where it hopes to grandstand over Cambodia in all the talks.

The bilateral talks had already dragged on for more than 2 years with no results, but, on the contrary, had led to more tensions and armed clashes. In the regional context, the 30-40 Indonesian observers’ role is very constrained and limited. They can only observe and monitor and make reports, but unable to enforce the ceasefire and cannot effect a resolution to the conflict. As a result, the problems will still exist, Thai troops are still on Cambodian soil and the bilateral talks will drag on for many more years with no sign of an agreement. With such a scenario occurring and with more pressures being greatly exerted by nationalist groups at homes from either country, more tensions will ensue and armed clashes are unavoidable.

The only permanent and lasting solution to this Khmer-Thai conflict is to allow the matter be judged by the International Court of Justice and the verdict be enforced by the UN Security Council. Then everything will be solved permanently once and for all.