Fighting Clouds Thai Election Picture

Wednesday, February 09, 2011
By JAMES HOOKWAY
The Wall Street Journal

BANGKOK—Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva Wednesday said he plans to call national elections by the middle of this year, even as a border conflict with Cambodia threatens to complicate his party's bid to remain in power.

At least eight people have been killed in sporadic skirmishes that began Friday near Preah Vihear Temple along Thailand's northern border with Cambodia. The violence has prompted the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization to send a team to assess damage to the thousand-year-old Hindu temple, which was designated as a Unesco World Heritage site in 2008 and is regarded as one of the high points of the Khmer civilization that once dominated much of mainland Southeast Asia. The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to discuss the issue next Monday.

Thailand and Cambodia have wrestled for years over control of the temple, which the International Court of Justice awarded to Cambodia in 1962, as well as over 4.6 square kilometers of nearby land. Ownership of this scrubby patch of land has become especially politicized in both countries recently; in Thailand, nationalist street protesters are currently surrounding the main government headquarters in Bangkok, demanding that Mr. Abhisit's government do more to back up the Thai claim to the site.

Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen has also used the issue to burnish his nationalist credentials domestically.

Political analysts say the dispute, which could intensify at any moment, is a double-edged sword for Mr. Abhisit, raising questions about whether he'll be able to proceed with planned elections and bring some long-term stability to one of Southeast Asia's linchpin economies.

In mid-January, Mr. Abhisit already appeared to be in full campaign mode, launching a heavily publicized welfare program live on television. Under Thai law, Mr. Abhisit must call elections by the end of this year, and analysts say he is eager to do so as quickly as possible hopes of establishing his own popular mandate. He was elected premier by Thailand's parliament in late 2008.

Mr. Abhisit, 46 years old, also faces continuing criticism for his response to massive street protests in Bangkok last April and May against his government and in support of populist former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a military coup in 2006. Over 90 people were killed, many shot by security forces that established live-fire zones in some of the city's most expensive neighborhoods.

Protesters were calling for early elections, and even now elections would go a long way toward resolving Thailand's problems and restoring Mr. Abhisit's standing overseas, some analysts say. Although analysts have long believed supporters of Mr. Thaksin would easily win a national election, some have begun to question that assumption in recent months: Thailand stabilized following last year's protests and posted strong economic growth in the second half of the year, they note, which could improve Mr. Abhisit's chances. But waiting until late in the year could give opponents more time to regroup and regain momentum, especially since economic growth is expected to weaken amid rising inflation.

On Wednesday Mr. Abhisit told a closed-door gathering of investors in Bangkok that he intends to hold a vote in the first half of the year. "The Prime Minister has made it clear he will not stay until the end of his term, and the election will be held within the first half of the year," said a government statement summarizing Mr. Abhisit's remarks.

The conflict with Cambodia, though, is raising questions as to whether Mr. Abhisit's government and his allies in the military and the powerful nationalist, anti-Thaksin "Yellow-Shirt" lobby are reading from the same page.

People familiar with the situation say some members of the armed forces and other Thaksin opponents—worried that elections might return Mr. Thaksin's supporters to power at their expense—may be seeking to short-circuit any election plans by distracting Mr. Abhisit with the Cambodia issue.

"I would say the internal politics in Thailand are very much responsible for what's happening on the border with Cambodia," says a prominent Thai academic, Pavin Chachavalpongpun. "That's not to say the conflict wouldn't happen without it, but it is a significant factor."

The Thai and Cambodian armed forces blame each other for triggering the conflict. But whichever side started it, the standoff could make it more difficult for Mr. Abhisit to hold a national vote, despite his announcement Wednesday. Though the prime minister intends to call an early election, said his acting spokesman, Panitan Wattanayagorn, "there need to be three elements in place before he can do that: an economic recovery, some constitutional amendments due to be voted on this Friday, and a peaceful overall environment."

Mr. Panitan says Thailand's government and armed forces are in constant communication, but that "peaceful environment" is bit of a stumbling block at the moment.

Although Mr. Thaksin is now living overseas to escape imprisonment on a 2008 corruption conviction—which he dismisses as politically motivated—he and his populist policies still have a strong following in vote-rich parts of north and north-eastern Thailand. In recent months crowds of up to 40,000 antigovernment Red Shirt protesters, many of them allied with Mr. Thaksin, have rallied in Bangkok pressing for new elections and the release of protest leaders arrested and charged with terrorism during last May's marathon rally. The size of the crowds has caught many government and security officials off guard.

Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com