By Daniel Rook, AFP
BANGKOK -- Nationalist fervor and political grandstanding are stoking a deadly border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia but both sides will be keen to avoid major hostilities, experts say.
Although the exact trigger for a series of armed clashes in recent days is unclear, tensions have grown since seven Thais -- including one lawmaker -- were arrested by Cambodia in December near the frontier for illegal entry.
Two of them were sentenced to lengthy jail terms for spying, outraging nationalist Thais, who have held protests in Bangkok calling on their Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to resign.
Observers say the recent cross-border fighting, focused on the area surrounding an ancient Khmer temple, is being used in both countries to stir patriotic sentiment with elections on the horizon.
Yet while Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen has unleashed a torrent of fiery rhetoric, accusing Thailand of being an invading aggressor and calling for U.N. intervention, for Abhisit the standoff is seen as another unwanted headache.
"Hun Sen is deliberately playing this to vitalize nationalist sentiment and reinvigorate support for himself," said Professor William Case, director of the Southeast Asia Research Centre at the City University of Hong Kong.
Hun Sen is "something of a tough guy ... but I don't think it will be allowed to get totally out of hand," he told AFP.
"On the Thai side this is a confrontation that the leadership would very much like to avoid. The nationalism on the Thai side is not so much coming from the government but from the masses, to which it has to respond."
"Yellow Shirt" Thai nationalists turned out in their thousands over the weekend demanding Abhisit's resignation over the issue.
The royalist protest movement is strongly critical of Cambodia over issues such as the border row and Phnom Penh's appointment of Thailand's fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as an economics adviser in 2009.
Seven people, including at least two civilians, have been killed since the fighting broke out on Friday around the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple, with both sides accusing each other of firing the first shots.
Ties between the neighbors have been strained since the temple was granted U.N. World Heritage status in July 2008.
The World Court ruled in 1962 that Preah Vihear itself belonged to Cambodia but both countries claim ownership of a 4.6-square-kilometer (1.8-square-mile) surrounding area.
"Nationalistic fervor is fueling both sides of the conflict," said Professor David Chandler, a Cambodia expert at Australia's Monash University.
"Kicking Cambodia around has been a Thai hobby since the 14th century; Cambodia biting back dates from the colonial era and of course from the World Court 1962 decision."
Michael Montesano of the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies in Singapore said the border issue "certainly plays well" in Cambodia.
"Cambodian efforts to protect their rights along the border and stand up to a stronger Thailand have political benefits for Hun Sen," he said.
The 59-year-old strongman -- who has ruled since 1985, vowing to remain in power until he is 90 -- is looking ahead to a general election in 2013.
In contrast in Thailand the government and military would prefer to avoid a confrontation, while nationalist activists "are determined to keep tensions with Cambodia on the boil," said Montesano.
The Yellow Shirts were once allies of the establishment-backed Abhisit, but relations have soured and the group's political party is eyeing elections expected some time this year.
"With elections in Thailand approaching, the country's civil society nationalists will play the Cambodia card to build up support for their parties," said Paul Chambers, a Thai expert at Germany's Heidelberg University.
"Preah Vihear has fallen victim to ultra-nationalism on both sides of the Thai-Cambodian border."
Despite the tough talk and casualties on both sides, observers believe the risk of a full-blown conflict remains slim.
"It will be a matter of bilateral negotiations with the possibility of further skirmishes," said Professor Mark Turner at the University of Canberra in Australia. "It's difficult to envisage any widening of the armed conflict."
12 comments:
That is coorect
Khmouch meah ah HUNSEN rude...!!! to UN is now UN don't like ah ngob hunsen... that's make ALL KHMER suffers because ah ngob hunsen...!!!
ALL THESE tragerty YOUN oders ah ngob hunsen to do like these...ect
all youn profit...
Hun Sen is a mafia,a thugs who dare used Preh Vihear temple for his political gain for next national election in 2013. He has bullied Thai, until Thai has kick his ass. Now he crying for U.N help. It is unlikely that the U.N will deploy troop for Hun sen to bullied Thai again, because he has causes many trouble in the region. He also has threaten U.N the same body that he call for help in the past. His infamy reputation will not help him in this border dispute with Thai, but will only disgrace himself as sob dictator.
so true, really; that's the real root of the conflict. that's why the rule of law is very important to prevent exploitation and unprofessionalism or worst rankling and emotion used by siem again to make trouble by disregarding or disrespect the international law. the UN security council can help to resovle and put a permanent, sound solution to this once and for all. don't let thailand bully cambodia again! it aren't right!
Hun Sen may overrun his troops to Bangkok in a week.
Mr. William Case, you can say what ever you want, because we knew you don't have inside and also outside political confrontations, like we here in Cambodia with our neighbors (Thai and Viet.)
Until today, you never care or have the border problem, because other cared and did for you. First the Brit and now the Chinese.
Pleas come to Cambodia and go to live in Pailin areas. There you will not survive not more than 7 days, because the malaria will kill you.
We are so tired with all the prognoses and promising. At the end, you Mr. William and some of people here will go on the same trace of Mr. Hun Sen, because you don't have another way
William case just said what I' ve been saying for so long:
1/ Hun Sen did it on the order from his Yourn master to cover the the Yourn encroachment on east side
This conflict will be over when the new drawn maps printed.
2/ To numb the nervous he has seen on international channels about the revolts against the dictators like Tunisia, Egypt etc...
3/ To give his son some credibility when he promotes him to 4 stars...soon.
William case just said what I' ve been saying for so long:
1/ Hun Sen did it on the order from his Yourn master to cover the the Yourn encroachment on east side
This conflict will be over when the new drawn maps printed.
2/ To numb the nervous he has seen on international channels about the revolts against the dictators like Tunisia, Egypt etc...
3/ To give his son some credibility when he promotes him to 4 stars...soon.
it's not time for conspiracy theory, etc, ok! that's not the real issue, here, think about it by following what people already mentioned about siem's evil intention, ok! everything else is secondary to the real issue, you know!
"Abhisit Vejjajiva is deliberately playing this to vitalize nationalist sentiment and reinvigorate support for himself," said Professor William Case, director of the Southeast Asia Research Centre at the City University of Hong Kong.
=The following statement is also true for Abhisit Vejjajiva! What does Abhisit Vejjajiva want to prove by sending his military into Cambodian territories! Does Abhisit Vejjajiva want to show that he more patriotic than all Siem leaders in the past and present by using military force to make Cambodian government comply with his demand?
Any fool or any expert or any specialist can say anything they want but what they can't deny is that Siem government under Abhisit Vejjajiva choose to invade Cambodia to take what belong to Cambodia according to international law!
Don’t blame Hun Sen who is the victim!
true,however, don't forget to find the fuel that ignites it, ok!
Cambodia used to have some 233 (SAM) surface to air missiles! But Hun Sen want to play the good guy for Uncle SAM because of war on terrorism and Uncle SAM was afraid that those missile might fall into the hand in the most corrupted Cambodia and those missiles were destroyed!
Now Thailand are threaten Cambodian with advance jet fighters and Cambodia don't even have shit to defend its airspace and the entire country from the Thailand air force!
Now Hun Sen cry for help but his cry for help fall on deaf ear! The war will soon start again regardless of how some foreigner experts or specialists down play about Cambodia-Thailand border conflict!
Cambodia must have surface to air missiles long, medium and short range now!
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