Sunday, February 13, 2011

Vietnam as Tunisia in waiting

January 29, 2011
By Adam Boutzan
Asia Times

Successful rebellions are inherently unpredictable. The middle-class revolt that recently toppled the Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali regime in Tunisia can only be explained in retrospect; hardly anyone, apparently, saw it coming.

Analysts now are pointing to the combustible mix of too many educated young people and too few jobs, a "kleptocratic elite", and the failure of the state security apparatus to defend the regime when the chips were down.

Other analysts are debating whether the Tunisian example will be replicated in neighboring Arab nations, including Algeria, Egypt and Yemen, and if so, how ought the world's democracies respond to the turmoil.

Foreign ministries from Washington, London, Tokyo to Paris and Berlin are trying to guess what posture is most likely to preserve their governments' ability to find common ground to work with whoever ends up on top of the heap if a revolt succeeds, yet not upset current relationships if the incumbents weather the challenge.

If they are wise, they won't just look at the Arab world.

The revolt in Tunisia looks a lot like the protests that rocked the mullah-cracy in Iran a little more than a year ago. It wasn't about Islam but rather about social justice and personal freedoms. And if that is true, analysts ought to be considering its relevance to all nations, Islamic or not, in awkward stages of development.

In many developing nations education and digitally driven social networking have made young, urban populations aware of what they haven't got. In some places, they haven't got the stuff someone can buy if he or she had a steady job. In other places, they haven't got the right to say what they think or change their leaders, let alone their system.

Vietnam falls into this second category.


Since 1991, the Communist Party elite has done remarkably well at putting stuff into the hands of its citizens. A population that is still haunted by the memory of the abject poverty engendered by the failure of Vietnam's attempt to build real socialism (1975-1986) is happy with what a US$1,200 per capita income brings: better housing, enough to eat, a motorbike, TV, and money to spend on occasional luxuries. The Forbes Magazine-sponsored Happiness Index survey regularly finds the Vietnamese to be among the most optimistic that life will keep getting better.

Yet a handful of Vietnamese persist in complaining in blogs, on Facebook and its ilk that material wealth is not enough and that elemental political freedoms are lacking. So far, the great majority of Vietnamese regard such people quizzically, if at all, as oddballs who haven't learned to color within the lines. They shrug when these malcontents are beaten up or jailed for such crimes as "using the Internet to promote a multiparty system and democracy".

The political passivity of most Vietnamese can't be explained by ignorance of the outside world. The livelier newspapers have reported frequently and without apparent censorship on the events in Tunisia and now Egypt since the Ben Ali regime was toppled in mid-month. And, just as when the riots that rocked Bangkok a year ago were daily media fare, the prevailing sentiment seems to be "thank God that doesn't happen here".

In a nation that was once officially egalitarian but where ostentatious displays of new wealth are now common, a lot of young, educated city people simply aspire to achieve the same degree of vulgarity. Almost all citizens believe that with hard work and a little luck, they'll lead better, easier lives.

The Legatum Institute's "Prosperity Index", a meta-analysis published on January 26, reported that Vietnam had jumped 16 places in the last year and is now 61st of 110 nations surveyed. Tunisia ranked 48th in the same "global assessment of wealth and well-being".

A Vietnamese Communist Party congress has just renewed the nation's political elite, promoting some and retiring others. Often heard through the fog of white noise that pervades such events was emphasis on the importance of continuing to deliver economic growth. Not just quantitative growth, but qualitative growth as well - the sort of investments and policies that can lift Vietnam out of the ranks of the exporters of raw materials and sweatshop goods.

That's a promise that the Hanoi regime may not be able to deliver. Perhaps party members understand that the legitimacy of their rule now depends intimately on delivering ever higher living standards and will act accordingly. However, it seems just as likely that reformers within the ruling party will continue to be hobbled by a sclerotic system characterized by patronage, pervasive corruption and local fiefdoms.

If Vietnam's quarter-century economic advance were to stutter or stall, trouble may well follow. There are millions of youth on motorbikes, each with a 3G mobile phone - anyone who has seen celebrations of football victories by Vietnam's national squad can imagine this same energy turned to political agitation. And if as in Tunisia the mood turned decidedly ugly, if a minor clash or two produced martyrs, if tens of thousands were to challenge the powers that be, can the regime depend on its protectors, the People's Police?

Vietnam, a nation of 86 million, has 1.2 million police according to an estimate by respected security analyst Carl Thayer. Collectively they are a corrupt, abusive, ubiquitous presence that ordinary people avoid insofar as possible. Individually, most police are - as reportedly is the case in Tunisia - lower middle-class people who regard a police career as a way to get ahead.

Specialized police units excel in monitoring and squashing Vietnamese who share their seditious opinions with others. Internal security officials regularly warn that Vietnam's enemies aim to launch an East European-type "color revolution". The police are aided by laws that prohibit the establishment of independent advocacy groups, the sinews of civil society in most nations.

Vietnam's political dissidents appear to be marginalized and few in number, and as long as that's the case no match for the police.

And yet, suppose economic growth did stutter or stall? And suppose a young Vietnamese with a university degree, unable to find steady work, set up a sidewalk business vending watermelons? Suppose several policemen busted him for vending without a permit and confiscated his wares? Suppose he protested to the powers that be and was ignored or humiliated?

These things happen often in Vietnam. And suppose that the young educated vendor then dowsed himself with gasoline in front of a local party headquarters and lit a match?

Adam Boutzan, a pseudonym, is an independent writer.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

I can say cleally, it will never happen because when the revolution like Egypt the Vietnam party its soldiers to fire on them, no doult be cause Vietnam is communist land, the state apparate has absolute power, Mubarak dictator but never communism at all. Before write this topic, please read what is the princip of communism and dictatorship clearly. The question you can raise what's up whith Mr Hun Sen ??

Anonymous said...

12:51 AM,

Sure, they can fire on them but this firing is out dated. They can fire on the protesters 25-50 years ago when there is no internet or facebook. Now, if they do fire on them they will be sorry because all the news will be broadcast throughout the world instantly.

This is the time of internet!!!
Internet Revolution!!!

Anonymous said...

***

The political uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and what they mean for the rest of the Dictators in world?

It seems the Tunisia "H1N1" is speading everywhere in the world; even Cambodia start to permeate
and very soon Cambodian will be push to the Maximum CHAOS!
The Revolt will sweep across the Khmer nation to oust viet dogs.

My Khmer Compatriots, Khmer must struggles for RENEWAL, CHANGE and FREEDOM.

You don't have other choice, but to organise an Armed Uprising right now to against these Hanoi's Puppet Hun Sen's families and it cronies.

All of you are in a loose-loose situation by Legal Means.
Freedom will never fall from the Sky. You have to fight to get that.
Hun Sen and Hanoi will continue to oppress you and confiscate your lands for their vietnamese bosses and their own interessts.

And how many Vietnamese illegal immigrants in Cambodia now ??? there are 6-7 million of them and over 100,000 in armed camoulfage.
The Hanoi's Vietnamisation is step by step and almost finished to their goal.

All of you will be Hanoi's slaves on your ancestors Lands very soon.
They cannot kill all of you in all Sroks and all Provinces, otherwise the whole world will step in to help liberate you from this mess of political CHAOS.

I called to Khmer compatriots to rise up with Axes, Swords, Sticks, Knives, Spears, Arrows, and possible grenades, B40-B41 hand Guns, shot guns to riot and kill THEM for your Freedom and liberate your country from the vietnamese yoke.

If you don't dare to die you won't survive.

Anonymous said...

i know, everybody seemed to think vietnam is ok with their rights, freedom, etc... but when one looked closely at its politics, it is worst off than cambodia, really! people just ignore it and hope it will go away. cambodia is a lot better off in reform minded, etc, although it seemed like cambodia is worst, in disguise only, i think!

Anonymous said...

នេះជាអត្ថបទមួយបំភ្លឺយើងឲ្យឃើញថា
វៀតណាមក៏មានបញ្ហាដូចនៅកម្ពុជាដែរ។
រីឯសៀមក៏កំពុងតែកំរើកណាស់ដែរ។
លាវក៏គូរតែកំរើកឡើង។ប្រទេសទាំង៤នេះត្រូវតែងើបឡើងឲ្យស្របគ្នាដើម្បីធ្វើការ
ផ្លាស់ប្តូដ៏ធំមួយនៅតំបន់អាស៊ីនេះ។
វៀតណាមមិនត្រូវប្រើនយោបាយចាស់
គំរិលវាតទឹកដីធ្វើអាណានិគមលើប្រទេស
ជឹតខាងនោះឡើយ។យូនឹងឆាប់ប្រជាជនគេ
នឹងងើបឡើងបះបោរ​ហើយនឹងមានបង្ហូ
ឈាមគ្នាបន្តទៅទៀតជាពុំខាន។ហ៊ុនសែន
ត្រូវយកស្ថានការណ៏ពិភពលោកថ្មីៗនេះមក
ពិចារណាម្តងទៀត ហើយសំរេចចឹត្តឲ្យត្រូវគឺ
ចូលនិវត្តិនៅឆ្នាំ២០១៣ហើយប្រគល់វាសនាកម្ពុជានេះជូនទៅអ្នក
ជំនាន់ថ្មីពេលនោះហ៊ុនសែនសោយសុខ
ក្នុងសម្បត្តិមហាសាលប្រកបដោយកិត្តិយស
នឹងសាក់សមជាសម្តេចតេជោមែន។តែបើ
ហ៊ុនសែនជ្រើសរើសផ្លូវខុសហ៊ុនសែននឹង
សូន្យបាត់បង់អស់កិត្តិយសគ្មានសម្បត្តិទ្រព
ហើយស្លាប់តៃហោងដូចហោរាទាយនោះមែន។
ហ៊ុនសែនជាអ្នកសំរេចវាសនាខ្លួនដោយខ្កួនឯង។
ប៉ន្តែបើចចេស វាសនាហ៊ុនសែននឹងដូច
ទំនាយថាមែន។សូមព្រះជួយពន្យល់ហ៊ុនសែន
ឲ្យពិចារណាឲ្យបានត្រូវដើម្បីសេចក្តីសុខខ្លួន
ឯងផងនឹងប្រជាពលរដ្ឋព្រមទាំងមាតុភូមិជាទី
ស្នេហារបស់យើងទាំងអស់គ្នាផង។
May god bless CAMBODIA

Anonymous said...

Vietnam, Can control only 100,000 people, but if people stand up 1-2 millions? how can you stop them if you killed them you will get more trouble. From now on the whole world has been change. You must remember PEOPBLE IS POWER. not you, not your family, not your party. Khmer Soth, USA

Anonymous said...

CAIRO - Egyptian Information Minister Anas El-Fekky has been placed under house arrest, military sources said on Saturday. The sources did not give a reason. Fekky had been close to outgoing President Hosni Mubarak.

Blue Kanha Rith, you are next.

Anonymous said...

cambodia is way better than most in terms of law, reforms, rights, etc. god bless cambodia.

Anonymous said...

CAIRO - Egyptian Information Minister Anas El-Fekky has been placed under house arrest, what is up Ta Green Khan Narith?

Anonymous said...

Yeah man, this is not 1/2 a centuray ago. Soon Thai and Vietnam will be following the footstep of SOVIET and Yugoslavia. Its controlled states will be declaring independent too.

Anonymous said...

It's more than time to nick those vietcong ass

Anonymous said...

Stop to shit negotiate with those bastard murderers and tyrants, nick them out USA

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Sa Thouk Sa Thouk Sa Thouk, 1:35 AM

If Hun Zen dies Tie Horng, every body in Cambodia, including all CPP supporters will have a bigger celebration than people in Tunisia and Egypt.

Anonymous said...

នេះជាអត្ថបទមួយបំភ្លឺយើងឲ្យឃើញថា
វៀតណាមក៏មានបញ្ហាដូចនៅកម្ពុជាដែរ។
រីឯសៀមក៏កំពុងតែកំរើកណាស់ដែរ។
លាវក៏គូរតែកំរើកឡើង។ប្រទេសទាំង៤នេះត្រូវតែងើបឡើងឲ្យស្របគ្នាដើម្បីធ្វើការ
ផ្លាស់ប្តូដ៏ធំមួយនៅតំបន់អាស៊ីនេះ។
វៀតណាមមិនត្រូវប្រើនយោបាយចាស់
គំរិលវាតទឹកដីធ្វើអាណានិគមលើប្រទេស
ជឹតខាងនោះឡើយ។យូនឹងឆាប់ប្រជាជនគេ
នឹងងើបឡើងបះបោរ​ហើយនឹងមានបង្ហូ
ឈាមគ្នាបន្តទៅទៀតជាពុំខាន។ហ៊ុនសែន
ត្រូវយកស្ថានការណ៏ពិភពលោកថ្មីៗនេះមក
ពិចារណាម្តងទៀត ហើយសំរេចចឹត្តឲ្យត្រូវគឺ
ចូលនិវត្តិនៅឆ្នាំ២០១៣ហើយប្រគល់វាសនាកម្ពុជានេះជូនទៅអ្នក
ជំនាន់ថ្មីពេលនោះហ៊ុនសែនសោយសុខ
ក្នុងសម្បត្តិមហាសាលប្រកបដោយកិត្តិយស
នឹងសាក់សមជាសម្តេចតេជោមែន។តែបើ
ហ៊ុនសែនជ្រើសរើសផ្លូវខុសហ៊ុនសែននឹង
សូន្យបាត់បង់អស់កិត្តិយសគ្មានសម្បត្តិទ្រព
ហើយស្លាប់តៃហោងដូចហោរាទាយនោះមែន។
ហ៊ុនសែនជាអ្នកសំរេចវាសនាខ្លួនដោយខ្កួនឯង។
ប៉ន្តែបើចចេស វាសនាហ៊ុនសែននឹងដូច
ទំនាយថាមែន។សូមព្រះជួយពន្យល់ហ៊ុនសែន
ឲ្យពិចារណាឲ្យបានត្រូវដើម្បីសេចក្តីសុខខ្លួន
ឯងផងនឹងប្រជាពលរដ្ឋព្រមទាំងមាតុភូមិជាទី
ស្នេហារបស់យើងទាំងអស់គ្នាផង

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