As election looms, Thai generals go on offensive

Thu Apr 28, 2011
By Martin Petty

PHANOM DONG RAK, Thailand (Reuters) - Thailand's military is on the offensive -- and not just in its deadly border skirmishes with Cambodia.

For decades, the country's history has been shaped by the balance of power between three institutions -- the monarchy, the military, and parliament. With elections looming that could upset this fragile balance once again, Thailand's generals have come out fighting.

For investors, the risks are rising. The last time the military grabbed a dominant role in politics, following a coup in 2006, the stock market collapsed following disastrous use of capital controls that took months to unwind.

There is also no guarantee that another bid by the military to reassert a dominant role would be as bloodless as in 2006.

Fighting on the border with Cambodia has killed at least 14 people since last Friday. Both sides blame each other. Thailand has rebuffed international mediation and withdrawn from defence ministerial talks, adding fuel to the crisis.

The timing is conspicuous. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjaiva's government, which came to power in 2008 with the help of the military, plans to hold elections by July. Few have as much to lose as the military's top brass if the opposition prevails.

Political analysts and government sources say Thailand's top generals appear to be taking a two-pronged approach, fanning the crisis with Cambodia to unify Thais behind the army while going on the political offensive at home.

While Thailand has always had extraordinarily tough laws protecting its monarchy, they are being invoked with unusual frequency. In recent weeks, army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has threatened legal action against a prominent academic advocating reform of the monarchy and against anti-government "red shirt" demonstrators allied with the opposition.

"Renewed violence on the border seems to relate to the Thai military's current determination both to assert itself and to create an atmosphere of crisis," said Michael Montesano, a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Which side is the main aggressor in the border conflict, the deadliest in nearly two decades, remains a mystery but few believe the fighting is really about sovereignty over heavily land-mined jungles and crumbling Hindu temples.

The election and a possible change in government could spell trouble for Thailand's military, whose budget has swelled under the ruling coalition that came to power in a 2008 parliamentary vote influenced by the army.

At stake, too, is a royalist establishment fiercely at odds with the opposition, some of whose grass-roots supporters advocate republicanism and reforms to the monarchy at a delicate time with 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej, an almost divine figure whose picture is hung on the walls of millions of Thai homes, hospitalised since September 2009.

During a recent news briefing, the army's spokesman said he hoped Thais would see a link between "monarchy-insulting elements" and "political groupings" before casting votes in the election, a comment widely seen as a veiled attempt to discredit the opposition Puea Thai Party and their "red shirt" allies.

But such rhetoric could backfire for the military, and the monarchy it claims to protect.

LESSONS LEARNED

The opposition Puea Thai remains popular among Thailand's rural poor and is tightly controlled by exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, a divisive, twice-elected tycoon the military and royalist establishment toppled in the 2006 coup.

Since then, the military's annual budget has nearly doubled to 154 billion baht ($5 billion).

Rumours of another coup continue to swirl as insiders talk of strains in Abhisit's ties with the armed forces.

Another coup could prevent the election and ensure the opposition stays out of power. But it could backfire and provoke violence from the red shirts whose protests last year paralysed Bangkok and led to clashes that killed 91 people.

"We have learned lessons from the 2006 coup. We are operating in a volatile environment now and just taking over peacefully isn't going to happen, even if it's the best thing for the country theoretically," said a retired army officer close to the top generals. He requested anonymity.

The Thai army has for decades made protecting the monarchy a priority, guaranteeing the military political influence.

"That balance of power between key institutions in Thailand is being threatened," said Karn Yuenyong, director of Siam Intelligence Unit, an independent think tank.

"What we are seeing are reactions to that by all groups -- those who want to maintain the status quo and those who are calling for reform of the institution (the monarchy)."

Ultra-nationalist "yellow shirts" and some influential conservatives fear pro-Thaksin forces could return to office, accelerating calls to reform the monarchy, and have urged a boycott of the poll. Some analysts say hawkish generals allied with nationalists could be trying to escalate the border conflict to scuttle the election.

"The border issue and sovereignty issue matter to a group of conservative elites in Thailand and this is one way the Thai army exerts its loyalty," Karn added.

The monarchy is an extremely sensitive subject in Thailand. Perceived insults against the crown, or lese-majeste, carry jail terms of up to 15 years -- the toughest in the world.

Prayuth has ordered legal action against three red shirt leaders for speeches made at an April 10 rally he said were offensive to the monarchy. Other army units followed suit with near-daily pledges of support for the king.

Three battalions of troops lined up last week in the pouring rain flanked by armoured trucks, helicopters and heavy machine guns in an elaborate combat exercise during which they pledged their allegiance to the royal institution.

A censorship blitz by an army-led Internal Securities Operations Command has led to the closure of radio stations, publications and tens of thousands of websites, while Prayuth has ordered army-owned Channel 5 TV to insert documentaries honouring the monarchy after each day's royal news programmes.

LESE MAJESTE - "A POLITICAL WEAPON"?

Critics say the army is among a growing number of political players who are abusing the lese-majeste law to silence and slur their opponents. Some warn it could deepen a polarising crisis triggered by the military's coup against Thaksin.

"The military used its loyalty to the monarchy to justify illegal action in launching a coup and has intensified the conflict," said political scientist Pavin Chachavalpongpun.

"Lese-majeste is being used as a political weapon. It's dangerous, because when used to undermine opponents, it risks undermining Thailand's most important institution."

Several Thai media commentators have argued that many of those filing lese-majeste complaints are exploiting the institution they claim to protect. "This sort of traitorous betrayal should be viewed as the worst of lese-majeste crimes," wrote Bangkok Post columnist Voranai Vanijaka.

Jacob Ramsay, senior Southeast Asia analyst at consultants Control Risks, said Thailand's military was clearly trying to raise its profile but he doubted it was seeking a bigger role.

"There are elements in the military we know are against early elections but it wants to keep out of politics," he said. "The most telling factor is its budget has risen substantially since it staged a coup and that in itself is something worth protecting."

(Additional reporting by Ambika Ahuja in Bangkok; Editing by Jason Szep and Andrew Marshall)