Thai-Cambodia Border Dispute Adds to [Thai] Election

APRIL 24, 2011
By JAMES HOOKWAY
The Wall Street Journal

Thai military leaders have repeatedly denied any plans to launch a coup or otherwise influence the democratic process, while government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn says the latest clashes with Cambodia were triggered by unexpected troop movements on the Cambodian side of the border.

BANGKOK—A simmering border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has killed at least 10 soldiers over the past three days and also threatens to complicate a heated political environment in Bangkok, where rumors are swirling about military coups or other ways to block planned elections.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a cease-fire late Saturday and urged both sides to find a diplomatic solution to the long-running border dispute. But clashes continued into Sunday morning and Cambodian officials said shooting again erupted in the afternoon. Thai officials have reported four of their troops killed, with Cambodia acknowledging six fatalities so far in a duel fought mostly with long-range artillery shells.

Analysts say there is a strong political dimension to the border conflict, which reignited in 2008 when Cambodia secured U.N. World Heritage status for an ancient temple within the disputed area. Nationalist movements in both Thailand and Cambodia have stressed the importance of claiming the Preah Vihear temple for their own countries, and eight people were killed in clashes near the temple site in February before this latest conflict, about 160 kilometers away.

The conflict also might complicate Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's plans to dissolve Thailand's parliament next month and pave the way for elections to be held as soon as June. The 46-year-old, Oxford-educated economist is counting on the vote to end five years of instability and violence and enable Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy after Indonesia, to build on its rapid recovery from the global economic slump.

But some analysts say there is still a risk the vote might not take place at all. In recent weeks, army commander Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha has filed criminal complaints against several top opposition activists for allegedly insulting the monarchy—a serious crime here—and a move which helped trigger murmurings that a coup is being planned. People familiar with the situation say some military leaders fear that a national vote could allow supporters of ex-Premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006 and is now living in exile, an avenue back into power.

Thai military leaders have repeatedly denied any plans to launch a coup or otherwise influence the democratic process, while government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn says the latest clashes with Cambodia were triggered by unexpected troop movements on the Cambodian side of the border.

Royalist activists who blockaded Thailand's main airport in 2008 are meanwhile urging Mr. Abhisit to call off his election plan and allow an appointed government to take over instead. Prominent newspaper columnists are adding their weight to the campaign, saying Thailand won't be ready to have a peaceful election for four or five more years.

The pre-election anxiety got the better of many Thais on Thursday when a satellite glitch knocked out television signals across the country and set off rumors that a coup was already underway.

The latest skirmishes with Cambodia—as well as the previous flare-up in February—are prompting some residents and analysts to speculate the army is now increasingly willing to assert itself.

Some opposition leaders are skeptical the vote will happen, even if Mr. Abhisit dissolves Parliament. Nattawut Saikua, one of the leaders of the opposition "Red Shirt" movement, worries that new election laws could be challenged in court and ruled unconstitutional, delaying indefinitely any election.

"I think there might only be a 50% chance of an election taking place," says Mr. Nattawut, who plans to run as a member of the opposition For Thais Party.

Many Thais are worried about the potential for instability. Red Shirt protesters, including many of Mr. Thaksin's supporters, last year cordoned off large areas of central Bangkok and put a serious dent in the country's tourism industry. As the protests grew increasingly violent, the army stepped in to stop the spreading conflict. A total of 91 people—the majority of them protesters—were killed in clashes.

Mr. Thaksin, a 61-year-old former telecommunications mogul who now lives abroad to avoid imprisonment on a corruption conviction, recently emerged from his self-imposed exile to talk with the international media and reiterate his claim that the charges against him are politically motivated. He is also urging on his followers in a series of phone-ins and messages on twitter.

Now, with neither Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party nor the pro-Thaksin For Thais Party—which are neck-and-neck in opinion polls—likely to gain an absolute majority in the planned election, analysts fear further violence could come as the two sides try to assume control of the government.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group this month warned of a potential bloody conflict if the Thailand's powerful armed forces and royalist bureaucrats pressure smaller parties to stay away from forming a coalition government with the For Thais Party if it wins the largest number of seats.

"Arm-bending by the royalist establishment is an obvious recipe for renewed street protests and violence," says Jim Della-Giacoma, the ICG's Southeast Asia director.

In the meantime, international efforts to end the border conflict continue. In addition to the UN, Indonesia, which is the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, has also tried to mediate a solution to the conflict. Thailand, though, has refused to allow Indonesian military observers into the disputed area and says the conflict can be settled in direct talks with Cambodia. Cambodia says it prefers third-parties to help broker a settlement.

Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya on Saturday denied Cambodian allegations that Thailand had fired shells loaded with "poisonous gas" into Cambodia, while army officials have also denied using cluster bombs.

Thailand earlier admitted using cluster bombs in previous border spats with Cambodia, but said they weren't the kind banned by 108 countries under an international treaty. Cluster bombs spread small bomblets across a broad area and can lay dormant for years. They pose a similar hazard as land mines to civilian populations.