By Pang Sokheoun
29-04-2011
We have heard the endless accusation game of the two countries about who shoots first in the Thai-Cambodian conflicts. Now I may analyze this as a tip.
IT IS THAILAND
29-04-2011
We have heard the endless accusation game of the two countries about who shoots first in the Thai-Cambodian conflicts. Now I may analyze this as a tip.
IT IS THAILAND
- Extremist group pressure: The extremist group in Thailand may pressure Abhisit and Thai military to attack Cambodia in order to revenge Cambodia for jailing heir friends and to takeover those Khmer Prasat by forces.
- Leadership conflict: Thai army and Abhisit are not getting along. They have internal conflict over how to resolve the conflicts with Cambodia. Abhsit may want to have talk but not the army.
- Power status-quo: Thai army has been viewed as the champion of coup de´ta in the world. It is the elite in the army that control Thailand. These people want to sustain their power sources by waging war against Cambodia and testing their military might.
- Nationalism: The dispute is seen as a way to rally nationalist sentiment and also, most importantly, to entrench the armed forces at the center of national security and political life. In the run-up to what is expected to be a hotly contested national election, keeping in the center of politics will be crucial for the military, and so they are unlikely to abandon the dispute.
- Military pressure for bilateral talk: It is the only option that Thailand can do now in order to pressure Cambodia back to bilateral talk. Thailand never wants third party to get involved or it will lose again. Thailand dares to choose this option because it clearly understands the the weakness of ASEAN, Cambodian leaders and Cambodian military logistic. It seems to prove right that Hun Xen a few days ago gave a blink that he opted to accept bilateral talk for the two temples- Prasat Ta Mean Thom and Prasat Ta Korbey, but Thailand needs all negotiations in bilateral principle with Cambodia, included Prasat Preah Vihear. So it must continue the the attack.
- Diplomatic and political justification: To tell the World Heritage Committee (WHC) that the conflicts don´t occur only at Preah Vihear temple. They happen anywhere because the two countries haven´t completed the border survey and demarcation yet. So, the conflicts around Preah Vihear temple is not the only case and WHC should reconsider about Thailand´s request to withdraw the Preah Vihear Listing and the management plan areas around it.
- Abhsit´s government´s status-quo: Abhsit and military may want these conflicts to be more escalated in order to remain in power without election.
- Internal issues distraction: Abhishit and the army may want to distract Thai people from condemning their incompetent leadership in dealing with the internal conflicts, southern violence, and social and economic injustice in the country.
- Offensive diplomacy against Cambodia: It is also a way to save its face in the international arena by trying to demoralizing Cambodia through its two strategical faces: diplomatically initiate peaceful negotiation in the front and strategically plan the attack at the back. And then fuel offensive propaganda that Thailand is acting in self-defense and proportion.
IT IS CAMBODIA
- World attention: To get the attention of the third party, ASEAN, UNSC and others.
- Internal distraction: Hoon Xen may use this a pretext to distract Cambodian people to from his violent rule in the country, like land eviction and economic hardship.
- Distraction from Eastern invasion: It is also a means to distract Cambodians from Viet invasion at the east.
- Family political dynasty: It is the only chance for his son to build up his merits for future´ political career, to replace him(?).
- Nationalism and power: To gain more supports from the people so that he can cling on longer to power.
NOTE: To the observers, it is believed that Thailand is being viewed as the provoker because it has refused to accept the multiparty talk and sign the Term of Reference to allow the international observers to monitor the border conflict areas in order to maintain peace. Whereas Cambodia has repeatedly demanded it and more importantly Cambodia is weaker than Thailand, so there is no reason that Cambodia provokes war against its more powerful neighbor. Most importantly, those Prasats geographically and legally belong to Cambodia so there is no reason that Cambodia invades Thailand.
6 comments:
The Khmer soldiers performed poorly in the battlefield. They managed to kill only seven siameses in nine days.
Average kill: 0.77/day.
They need more practice.
What a stupid analysis that come up with the ideas that Cambodia fire first..
ពួកអាប្រឆាំងវាមិនដែលនិយាយសោកស្តាយអំពី
កងយុទ្ធពលខេមរភូមិន្ទខ្មែរនោះទេពីព្រោះអាពួក
ទាំងនេះពិតជាបំរើការឲ្យអាពួកសៀមចោរឈ្លាន
ពានដីខ្មែរពិតប្រកដមែន។
Var Kim Hong does recognize that Cambodia, if compared to the colonial Service Geographique de l’Indochine scale map 1/100,000 and the 1985 delimitation treaty, will loses 9,000 hectares; and compared to U.S Army Mapping Service scale map 1/50,000 with the 1985 Treaty, would lose about 7,900 hectares to Vietnam. This statement was confirmed by Var Kim Hong to Mr. Touch Bora Esq through a telephone conversation on 30 August 2002 at 4:30 p.m. (Sydney time), which Mr. Touch Bora Esq wrote in his letter dated on 9 September 2002 sent to Sam Dach Ta Noroudom Sihanouk concerning over border affairs.
In fact, the loss is absolutely more than the 1000 square kilometers stated by MP Sam Rainsy in his statement, if we add the size of the historical water of 30000 square kilometers awarded to Vietnam under the 1982 Agreement which has been into affect and now already become under the full control of Vietnam. And this would not be the last if the equidistance principle be used to delimit the maritime boundary, Cambodia will lose an additional area of sea and seabed measuring at least 860 square nautical miles from the Brevie Line to the north, analyzed by Mr. Touch Bora Esq or another 10000 square kilometers confirmed by Mr. Sean Pengse, the President of the Cambodian Border Committee Worldwide, which exclusively include another Koh Poula Wai to Vietnam added to the previous lost islands- Koh Tral (Dao Phu Quoc) and Koh Poulo Panjang (Dao Thu Chu).
This is why sVar Kim Hong said in front of Students´s Movement for Democracy (SMD), and Sam Dach Ta Norodom Sihanouk on 22 Janaury 2000 during our audience with him concerning the border resolution with Vietnam that; “If we want peace, we must sacrifice our flesh to the tiger.” The truth is discovered now that, “Sacrifice the flesh to tiger actually means cutting our land to the Viet.” This word was clearly spoken out from his mouth and there were Sam Dach Ta as witness and 31 members.
We must condemn this Var Kim Hong for his role in helping the traitorous regime of Hun Sen.
Smart Khmer Girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
Koh Tral Island must not be forgotten
By Ms. Rattana Keo
Why do Koh Tral Island, known in Vietnam as Phu Quoc, a sea and land area covering proximately over 10,000 km2 [Note: the actual land size of Koh Tral itself is 574 square kilometres (222 sq miles)] have been lost to Vietnam by whose treaty? Why don’t Cambodia government be transparent and explain to Cambodia army at front line and the whole nation about this? Why don't they include this into education system? Why?
Cambodian armies are fighting at front line for 4.6 km2 on the Thai border and what's about over 10,000km2 of Cambodia to Vietnam. Nobody dare to talk about it! Why? Cambodian armies you are decide the fate of your nation, Cambodian army as well as Cambodian people must rethink about this again and again. Is it fair?
Koh Tral Island, the sea and land area of over 10,000 square kilometres have been lost to Vietnam by the 1979 to 1985 treaties. The Cambodian army at front line as well as all Cambodian people must rethink again about these issues. Are Cambodian army fighting to protect the Cambodia Nation or protecting a very small group that own big lands, big properties or only protecting a small group but disguising as protecting the Khmer nation?
The Cambodian army at front lines suffer under rain, wind, bullets, bombs, lack of foods, lack of nutrition and their families have no health care assistance, no securities after they died but a very small group eat well, sleep well, sleep in first class hotel with air conditioning system with message from young girls, have first class medical care from oversea medical treatments, they are billionaires, millionaires who sell out the country to be rich and make the Cambodian people suffer everyday.
Who signed the treaty 1979-1985 that resulted in the loss over 10,000 km2 of Cambodia??? Why they are not being transparent and brave enough to inform all Cambodians and Cambodian army at front line about these issues? Why don't they include Koh Tral (Koh Tral size is bigger than the whole Phom Phen and bigger than Singapore [Note: Singapore's present land size is 704 km2 (271.8 sq mi)]) with heap of great natural resources, in the Cambodian education system?
Look at Hun Sen's families, relatives and friends- they are billionaires, millionaires. Where did they get the money from when we all just got out of war with empty hands [in 1979]? Hun Sen always say in his speeches that Cambodia had just risen up from the ashes of war, just got up from Year Zero with empty hands and how come they are billionaires, millionaires but 90% of innocent Cambodian people are so poor and struggling with their livelihood every day?
Smart Khmer girl Ms. Rattana Keo,
If we look at this article and his article (MOU 2000--The Root cause of Thai--Cambodian Coflicts) is completely contradict one another, but this disgraced Pang Sokheoun has his dirty trick with the tittle of his article by using "Who Shoots First?" rather than put "The reasons behind Thai--Cambodian Conflicts" But the meaning is still the same.
Khmer in Sydney CBD
Post a Comment