Border disputes likely to remain highly volatile

July 6, 2011
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation

Restoration of bilateral relations with Cambodia will be an uphill task for the new government as ties have been seriously damaged and the party which won the election on Sunday could face a lot of difficulties and obstacles in trying to fix them.

Relations between the two neighbours have been trapped by bruised nationalism over the past years, mostly because of domestic political conflict.

Nationalism was used as an instrument to attack political enemies in a domestic context - but the consequences "spilled over" to damage relations with Cambodia.

As long as domestic conflict remains, the new government won't be able to make a simple U-turn in the policy toward Cambodia to restore relations. This would spark fierce resistance from ultra-conservatives and Thai nationalists.

The defeat in the election on Sunday of the Democrats and the Social Action Party, who championed the tough policy against Cambodia, may suggest the nationalists failed to win electoral support but it does not mean they have lost power in real politic.

The conservatives in the military and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) are ready to exercise such power as soon as the new government shows any sign of being on good terms with Phnom Penh. The former has guns while the latter is keen on a street battle. Previous governments under the late Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat have already tested the bitter nature of nationalism.

A political discourse on Sia Din Daen ('Lost Territory') is being circulated and waiting for responses. Conservative groups have spread their rhetoric on the Internet saying "the victory of Pheu Thai is equivalent to the loss of Thai territory to Cambodia" and "the [World Heritage] listing of Preah Vihear is the loss of Thai territory."

People, even scholars, who subscribed to the discourse and rhetoric no longer need to discuss the historic and legal background about the territory which Thailand claims - next to the temple on the border.

For the nationalists, close personal relations between former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen are the same as a business deal that goes beyond national interests. They throw doubt on every deal made in the past - and will make in the future.

The conflict with Cambodia was exacerbated by being dragged into many international forums such as the United Nations, Asean, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the Unesco/World Heritage Committee. Abhisit's government, which preferred nationalism, took a very hard stance on compromise in such forums.

Asean is waiting for a Thai decision on a team of observers from Indonesia. Jakarta, as the chair of Asean, proposed that it should monitor a permanent peace in the border areas adjacent to Preah Vihear. Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia made a deal on a peace package in May after the Asean summit. Phnom Penh has already shown its readiness to enforce it, and is waiting only for a decision from Bangkok.

The ICJ will make a decision soon on the request by Phnom Penh for provisional measures to ban the Thai military from undertaking activities in the disputed area near the temple. The new government might not have much to do with the case, but people in power will have to deal with the consequences of the court's injunction.

Another matter which the Abhisit administration left to the new government was a decision on whether to withdraw from the 1972 World Heritage Convention. Suwit Khunkitti, the former Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, expressed an intent to do this during a meeting in Paris last month.

Legally speaking, Thailand remains a member of the convention and could opt to stay in the UN cultural body. But conservatives and nationalists may try to force the new Cabinet to endorse Suwit's move, as they fear any support for Cambodia's management plan for the temple would jeopardise Thai claims for land adjacent to Preah Vihear.

As long as domestic conflict remains and nationalists are active, the new government may not have the freedom to fashion different policies toward Cambodia.